To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  $Intel(INTC)$  22Jan26 ET 🇺🇸 | 23Jan26 NZT 🇳🇿

📊 Market Pulse

I’m convinced risk-on momentum strengthened meaningfully as geopolitical premium eased, volatility compressed, and global equity tone stayed constructive overnight. US equity futures held modest gains into the open, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed but supportive, led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up +1.02% on stimulus optimism, while Japan’s Nikkei dipped slightly on export data. European equities opened firmer, with Germany’s DAX up about +1.22% on tariff relief dynamics.

US equities extended gains after Trump backed away from immediate European tariffs and signalled a NATO backed framework tied to Greenland, reducing headline risk even as Denmark reiterated sovereignty constraints. The Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI climbed +285 points to erase weekly losses, closing near 49,384. The S&P 500 $SPX advanced toward 6,913, with $SPY tracking higher alongside index strength. The Nasdaq Composite $COMP outperformed near 23,436, with $QQQ leading large cap growth momentum. The Russell 2000 $RUT closed at its 8th all time high of the year and is now in its longest winning streak in nearly 30 years, confirming small cap leadership through operating leverage and reinforcing a sustained breadth thrust.

Intraday structure remained constructive, with shallow pullbacks absorbed and liquidity pockets bid aggressively. Sector rotation leaned pro cyclical, favouring Industrials, Materials, and select Financials, while defensives lagged. Market internals confirmed this was not a narrow mega cap chase. NYSE logged 3,019 advancers versus 1,472 decliners, with 767 new highs versus 47 new lows. Nasdaq recorded 7,837 advancers versus 3,411 decliners, with 1,763 new highs versus 139 new lows, signalling accumulation rather than distribution.

I’m watching closely as $SPX futures probe the 7,000 zone as a key psychological and technical resistance level, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly +0.95%, reinforcing AI driven outperformance. The US dollar remained firm but not restrictive, Treasury yields stayed range bound, and cross asset tone remained supportive of equities.

Commodities delivered mixed signals. Natural gas futures /NG extended volatility, reversing sharply lower after intraday highs tied to weather forecasts and earlier +10% upside. Price is now testing a long term resistance zone that has capped rallies since late 2023. I believe frigid weather remains the dominant catalyst, but blow off top risk is elevated if momentum fades. Gold benefited from renewed safe haven interest after Goldman Sachs raised its year end target to $5,400 per ounce, citing skewed upside risks from policy uncertainty, even as broader volatility continued to compress.

🏦 Fed Watch

I’m focused on financial conditions easing as equity prices grind higher and volatility compresses. The yield curve remains sensitive to front end policy expectations, with markets still pricing a higher for longer terminal rate while increasingly comfortable with a soft landing or no landing narrative. Real yields remain elevated relative to pre cycle norms, yet equity risk premium continues to hold as earnings momentum and AI capex expectations support valuations.

Macro data continues to complicate the Fed path. Revised Q3 GDP came in at a resilient +4.4% annualised, driven by consumer spending and exports, reinforcing growth durability. Jobless claims remain near 200K, signalling labour market resilience, while PCE inflation remains sticky near 2.8%, tempering aggressive rate cut expectations. I’m convinced curve behaviour and real yield trends will remain critical signals for whether this rally broadens further or stalls under tighter financial conditions.

📈 Earnings Spotlight

I’m watching earnings season as a primary driver of rotation, factor leadership, and sentiment, and this batch reinforced both cyclical upside and selective margin pressure.

🟡 $ABT Abbott Laboratories reported in line results, signalling stable healthcare demand and disciplined cost control.

🟢 $FCX Freeport McMoRan delivered a clear beat, reinforcing the copper and materials recovery narrative tied to global growth, electrification, and energy transition demand.

🟢 $GE General Electric beat expectations, supporting Industrials leadership and margin expansion themes tied to aerospace and power.

🔴 $MKC McCormick missed, highlighting pockets of margin compression in consumer staples and input cost sensitivity.

🟡 $MBLY Mobileye came in line, maintaining cautious guidance amid automotive cycle uncertainty and OEM demand variability.

🟢 $PG Procter and Gamble beat, demonstrating pricing power resilience, steady consumer demand, and disciplined cost execution.

🔴 $COF Capital One reported after the close and fell roughly −4% after hours.

EPS: $3.86 versus $4.14 estimated

Revenue: $15.58B versus $15.47B estimated

Provision for credit losses surged to $4.14B, amplifying credit cycle concerns and signalling potential headwinds for Financials if delinquency trends persist. The company also announced its $5.15B Brex acquisition, adding strategic optionality but raising near term scrutiny on profitability and capital allocation.

🟡 $INTC Intel beat Q4 expectations but guided soft for Q1, projecting revenue of $11.7B to $12.7B versus $12.6B consensus, with adjusted EPS guided to breakeven versus $0.06 expected. Management acknowledged chip yield issues, inventory constraints, and supply shortages expected to peak in Q1 before improving later in the year. After hours trading saw $INTC drop sharply, underscoring execution risk and potential pressure on broader semiconductor multiples. I’m convinced Intel’s relative outperformance versus the broader chip industry is nearing an inflection point as AI capex optimism collides with operational reality.

🟢 Upcoming energy earnings remain in focus, with $SLB and $BKR set to report, offering insight into upstream capex trends, oilfield services demand, and pricing power.

🟢 $CLX Clorox announced a $2.25B cash acquisition of GOJO Industries, the maker of Purell, including roughly $330M in tax benefits. The deal scales its Health and Wellness segment and is expected to become EPS accretive in year two.

🟢 $SYM Symbotic is rebounding from the $60 zone and approaching a historically constructive 126 day moving average. Schaeffer’s signals show two similar setups over the past decade, both followed by positive 30 day forward returns averaging about +6.6%. Short interest sits near 12.9% of float with roughly five days to cover, increasing the probability of a tactical short squeeze if momentum builds.

🟢 $TSLA Tesla regained narrative momentum after Elon Musk stated humanoid robots are expected to go on sale to the public by the end of next year. I’m convinced this reinforces Tesla’s positioning as a multi vertical technology platform spanning EVs, robotics, and embodied AI, with long duration optionality beyond automotive margins.

🧠 Options Flow Radar

Unusual options activity remained elevated across speculative, growth, and macro sensitive names.

$NFLX traded roughly 1.60M contracts, with calls at about 1.01M versus 588K puts, around 2x average daily volume, signalling upside chase and institutional repositioning post earnings.

$PFE saw approximately 997K contracts with a strong call skew near 6x average volume, reflecting directional healthcare positioning.

$FXI showed heavier put volume relative to calls, signalling hedging around China policy risk, while $BABA recorded about 503K contracts with call dominance, aligning with China stimulus narratives.

$GME logged roughly 507K contracts with heavy call dominance, reinforcing meme momentum and speculative gamma exposure.

$PG printed around 421K contracts, about 9x average daily volume, signalling institutional repositioning post earnings.

$15M Put Spike on $SPY

$34M Short-dated, Single-leg Calls on $META today.

High beta and speculative names including $PLUG, $MRNA, $POET, $ARBE, $SMR, $VALE, $SILJ, $ABT, $TMC, $USAR, $CRML, $ET, $KHC, $IBRX, and $PBR showed outsized activity relative to historical norms, reflecting call sweeps, skew shifts, and rising gamma exposure. I’m watching closely for a gamma flip environment where elevated call open interest could amplify upside momentum but also create downside air pockets if sentiment reverses.

🌡 Volatility Check

Volatility continued to compress across tenors. The VIX $VIX closed near 15.64, down about −7.46%, while the 1 Day VIX fell toward 11.0, implying an expected $SPX move of roughly ±0.69% next session. The VIX term structure shows front end compression faster than medium term maturities, signalling near term calm but persistent demand for medium horizon hedging. The CNN Fear and Greed Index sits near 52, a neutral reading that reflects stabilising risk appetite rather than euphoric excess.

I’m convinced this volatility crush environment supports carry trades, systematic equity exposure, and expanding gross exposure, but it also raises vulnerability to sharp repricing if macro data or earnings guidance disappoint.

🌍 Global Macro Currents

Geopolitical premium eased as Trump backed away from European tariff escalation and floated a NATO aligned Greenland framework. Denmark reiterated sovereignty constraints, but markets interpreted the shift as de escalation. I’m watching closely for renewed tariff rhetoric or geopolitical flare ups that could reintroduce risk off flows.

Global growth signals remain mixed but supportive. Asia and Europe opened firmer on tariff relief and stimulus optimism. Yardeni Research highlighted the potential for an earnings melt up, supported by resilient GDP growth and low jobless claims, even as sticky PCE inflation complicates Fed easing. I’m convinced sustained breadth thrust and thematic rotation into cyclicals remain intact, but vulnerability to renewed headline risk or earnings disappointment remains elevated.

Gold attracted incremental safe haven flows following Goldman Sachs’ $5,400 per ounce year end target, while natural gas volatility underscores ongoing energy shock risk tied to weather and supply dynamics.

🧩 Risk Positioning Insight

I’m convinced positioning remains tilted toward net long risk as volatility compresses and breadth strengthens. Broad participation suggests accumulation rather than late cycle distribution. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight stance on small caps despite reduced rate cut odds, citing approximately +8% year over year earnings growth potential. Jefferies has highlighted hedging strategies around tariff rulings, signalling pockets of institutional caution even as headline risk fades.

Short interest dynamics in names like $SYM and select high beta equities raise the probability of tactical short squeeze scenarios if momentum persists. ETF and index flows appear supportive of a continued rotation into small caps and cyclicals, reinforcing a pro growth factor tilt. I’m watching closely for signs of de grossing or hedge fund net exposure reduction if yields spike or earnings guidance resets lower.

Dark pool and after hours price action highlighted sensitivity to credit cycle signals, particularly in $COF following higher credit loss provisions. I’m convinced credit provisioning trends will be a key driver of Financials relative performance over the coming quarters.

After hours movers included $INTC, $CSX, $CLX, $AA, $ISRG, and $COF, offering early signals for sector rotation and earnings sentiment into next week.

🚨 Silver just hit a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH overnight at $98.98 and is knocking on the door of $100/oz.

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