To The Moon

The “tariffs-for-Greenland” drama, which had markets on edge for days, quieted down Wednesday night after Trump’s latest “TACO” move. U.S. equity indices, having touched their 20-week moving average, bounced back as expected—thanks to a clean alignment of news flow and technical support.

What is the “TACO trade”?It stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” a term coined in 2025 by Robert Armstrong, a columnist at the Financial Times. It describes a recurring pattern in Trump’s policy playbook since returning to office: his administration loudly announces aggressive measures—like steep tariffs on foreign nations—sparking market panic and sell-offs. But under pressure, it soon pauses, scales back, or reverses course, triggering a swift rally.This cycle has worked repeatedly in 2025. The recent “Greenland tariff” threat followed the same script: markets plunged on the announcement, then surged the moment Trump walked it back during his Davos speech.But beware.Markets are like children hearing “the wolf is coming” too many times—they stop believing. And when the real wolf finally appears, the reversal will be brutal and fast. Stay alert, especially in Q2.

I. U.S. Equity Indices Still Have Clear Support $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$

We’ve stressed since early January: the 20-week moving average remains key.
On Wednesday, just before Trump’s speech, major indices dipped right to this line—then rallied sharply on his dovish comments. The technical signal is clear.

So next week’s strategy stays unchanged:

• Stay long as long as prices hold above the 20-week MA;

• Use the 20-week MA as a stop-loss level;

• Add a small position in VIX-related instruments as cheap tail-risk insurance.

One more thing: Trump has said he’d announce his pick for Fed Chair in January.
This is the final week of the month—so expect the news any day now. The market is watching closely.Whoever gets the nod will shape monetary policy—and volatility—for months to come.
Shift your focus accordingly. $标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares(IVW)$ $标普/澳交所 普通股指数(XAO.AU)$

II. Silver Keeps Soaring—When Does It Stop? $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$

COMEX silver futures are rumored to face massive physical delivery in March—a classic “short squeeze.” In the short term, the market is now focused on whether the March contract can be settled by late February. If a large volume of registered warrants appears just before expiry, silver will likely stall. But so far, no significant increase in registered physical silver has been seen, which is precisely why the short squeeze sentiment persists. $镍ETF(NICK.UK)$ $镍ETN-iPath(JJN)$

If delivery proceeds smoothly, it means shorts have sufficient supply, making future squeezes much harder. If delivery fails, it could trigger a major event—similar to the LME nickel crisis—with unpredictable chain reactions.

Silver $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ investors should therefore monitor registered warrant levels for the March contract (check with your futures broker or the exchange website). If registrations rise sharply, take profits early—even if it means leaving some gains behind.

Technically, the squeeze can still be tracked simply using the 10-day moving average. If shorts lack deliverable supply, silver may accelerate further. Historically, silver has rallied tenfold from lows near $17 per ounce, so upside room remains. Speculators should watch price rhythm closely and strictly manage risk.