The Kevin Warsh factor matters here. A hawkish Fed Chair candidate immediately reprices the entire rate and USD path, and gold is extremely sensitive to that shift. I don’t fully buy a 60% crash scenario, but I do agree with Cathie Wood on one thing: this rally went parabolic, and parabolic moves don’t correct gently.
For now, I’m not rushing to catch the knife. The $5,000 level is critical — if it stabilizes with volume and volatility cools, that’s a different conversation. Until then, I’m staying patient, respecting the downside risk, and letting the market show its hand before committing long again.
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