Jan Review: Gold/Silver/Bitcoin Crash —Is February for Buying or Bailing?
@Tiger_comments：
January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year. January Recap: S&P's "January Barometer," but Tech is Lagging? In terms of historical win rates, January lived up to its reputation: $S&P 500(.SPX)$: Up 1.37% (consistent with its 62% win rate since 1928). $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : The strongest performer, gaining 1.73% as value and blue-chip stocks took the lead. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$: Up only 0.95%, looking noticeably sluggish. Despite the "January Barometer" flashing a green light for the year, the underperformance of tech stocks suggests that capital is being re-priced. The market is searching for a new narrative. Month-End Earthquake: Gold/Silver Collapse, Bitcoin Stumbles The end of January was nothing short of breathtaking. The primary trigger: Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Black Friday for Precious Metals: $XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ : Plunged 26%, its largest historical drop! $SLV trading volume exploded past $40 billion. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Dropped 9%, suffering its worst single-day performance in over a decade. A surging Dollar fueled by expectations for the new Fed Chair, combined with a market that was overstretched after weeks of endless rallying. The bubble popped instantly. Crypto: $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ fell to $74,600 (a 10-month low), while Ethereum retreated to levels not seen since June 2025. The anticipation of tighter liquidity is hitting risk assets hard. February Outlook: Can the "January Effect" Hold? 1. Will "As Goes January, So Goes the Year" ring true? Historically, a positive January suggests a bullish year. However, don't forget: After last year's January rise, the market saw three consecutive months of decline. Given the complexity of geopolitical shifts and the Fed's leadership transition, February may be a period of digestion for the "Warsh Shockwave." 2. Gold & Silver: Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife? The long-term case for gold (as a hedge and inflation shield) hasn't vanished, but the short-term technicals are severely damaged. Let's Discuss: Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity? With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February? Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback? How do you review earnings performance in Jan.? Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and let's get ready for February!
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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