Seeing the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ notch its 39th record high around 6,927 reinforces how powerful year-end seasonality can be, especially when liquidity improves and positioning turns more supportive. Historically, the Santa rally isn't just a festive myth — it reflects tax-loss selling ending, performance chasing by funds, and generally lighter risk aversion into year-end. That backdrop helps explain why markets can keep grinding higher even when valuations already look stretched. Whether the Santa rally extends into January, in my view, depends less on sentiment and more on posi
When I look at Rocket Lab, I do see a credible and increasingly important player in the space launch ecosystem, especially as global demand for launch capacity continues to grow. The company has executed well in smallsat launches with Electron and has built a meaningful space systems business, which gives it more diversified revenue than many pure-launch startups. The Neutron rocket, if delivered on time and within budget, could materially expand Rocket Lab's addressable market and justify some of the recent bullish analyst targets. That said, I'm more cautious about the $90 price target in the near term. Neutron remains the key swing factor, and until we see clear technical milestones and commercial contracts translating into recurring cash flow, expectations may be running ahead of funda
For me, 2025 is best defined by the AI-driven shift in capital allocation, highlighted by Nvidia surpassing $5 trillion. It wasn’t just about one stock, but about markets recognizing compute power as core infrastructure. Even with tariffs, geopolitics, and policy noise, money consistently flowed toward AI enablers. The most valuable lesson came from managing volatility rather than chasing returns. With constant headline shocks — from Trump tariffs to China’s AI breakthroughs and crypto swings — reacting emotionally often hurt performance. Focusing on market structure, liquidity, and defined risk mattered far more than predicting news. Ultimately, 2025 showed that markets now price narratives as much as fundamentals. AI, geopolitics, and digital assets blended into a powerful expectation e
If I have to choose the most likely 2026 outcome, I lean toward “nothing dramatic happens.” Markets have adapted to repeated shocks, and while AI should lift productivity, it’s unlikely to trigger either a 1999-style boom or a sudden collapse. Growth is more likely to stay decent but uneven, leading to gradual expectation resets. For equities, I expect modest new highs rather than a melt-up or crash. Valuations are high, but earnings, liquidity, and buybacks still provide support. A 50% drop in Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ seems unlikely without a clear earnings shock; volatility and rotation feel like the more realistic path. On policy, the main risk is Fed hesitation, not extreme easing or hikes. Inflation may cool but remain sticky enough to cause
The gift I’m giving this Christmas is $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ . I bought it about four years ago, when market sentiment was mixed and many still saw it as just a government-focused data company. What convinced me was its strong moat in data analytics, long-term contracts, and the critical role its software plays for clients. I held through volatility as Palantir improved profitability, expanded commercial clients, and benefited from the AI adoption trend. As fundamentals strengthened, market recognition followed, and the position is now up roughly 300% over four years, making it one of my best long-term investments. I’m sharing PLTR as a gift because it reinforced the importance of patience and conviction. Understanding the business a
From my perspective, the approval of oral Wegovy is the most important positive catalyst Novo Nordisk has seen this year. A pill form fundamentally lowers the barrier to adoption versus injections, especially for primary care patients and long-term weight management. The market's 7% reaction makes sense to me, because this isn't just a line extension—it meaningfully expands the addressable market and strengthens Novo's positioning in the obesity franchise. That said, I also understand why NVO is still down 38% year to date while Eli Lilly keeps making new highs. Lilly has clearly won the narrative this year, with faster innovation cycles, stronger momentum in data readouts, and more consistent execution. Novo's drawdown reflects disappointment rather than collapse—its core GLP-1 economics
From my perspective, confirmation that NVIDIA plans to resume H200 deliveries to China around mid-February 2026 is a meaningful near-term catalyst. The expected 5,000–10,000 module sets—equivalent to roughly 40,000–80,000 H200 chips—won't redefine NVIDIA's global revenue base on their own, but they clearly help stabilize expectations around China exposure. After months of uncertainty driven by export controls, even partial normalization reduces downside risk and improves visibility, which explains why the stock reacted positively with a 3% gain. That said, I see the China H200 story more as a confidence booster than a structural growth re-acceleration. The volume involved is material, but not transformative compared with hyperscaler demand in the US, Middle East, and Europe. What matters m
$Ramaco Resources Inc.(METC)$ is in my focus today after announcing a $100 million share repurchase program to be carried out over the next 24 months. The company may buy back its Class A common shares through open-market transactions, block trades, or private deals, supported by a formal trading plan under U.S. securities rules. Chairman and CEO Randall Atkins said the buyback underscores Ramaco’s commitment to shareholder returns and reflects confidence in the company’s operating performance and financial position. He highlighted the previously announced $600 million financ
From my perspective, gold $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ near $4,500 reflects a structural shift rather than short-term speculation. Nearly 50 record highs this year, alongside silver breaking above $70, point to rising concern over monetary credibility, expanding U.S. debt, and geopolitical risk. The broad rally across gold, silver, platinum, and palladium reinforces my view that this is a systemic hard-asset trade. I see gold reaching $5,000 in 2026 as realistic if rate cuts materialize and real yields stay pressured. Gold has lagged silver and other precious metals since Jackson Hole, suggesting it may still have room to catch up as the macr
From my perspective, Tesla's return to the top seven U.S. stocks by market capitalization is not just a ranking change—it reflects a renewed market willingness to price in Tesla's long-term optionality, rather than valuing it purely as an auto manufacturer. The legal reinstatement of Elon Musk's 2018 compensation package matters because it removes a major overhang and reaffirms alignment between execution, incentives, and Tesla's most ambitious roadmap. I remain very bullish on Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares(TSLL)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF(TSLR)$ <