To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟The recent tech rout can be summed up in one word : Capex.  Not AI, not earnings, not hype.  The Star Wars of Compute is here - a USD 600 billion arms race where every cloud titan is building Death Stars of silicon, data centers and model training clusters. 

The market is suddenly asking the only question that matters :

Who will actually monetise all this?

The Dominoes Fell Fast 

$Alphabet(GOOG)$  and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  both delivered monster growth.  Both revealed monster capex.  Both got punished.

Google fell 7% but recovered to - 0.6% by sheer force of fundamentals.  Amazon is down 10% as investors balked at the USD 200 billion capex.

Microsoft  $Microsoft(MSFT)$  : The fortress cracked.  Down over 15% in 2 weeks, slipping below USD 400.  Not because it is weak but because perfection was priced in.

Meta$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  erased last week's gains.  Tesla slid back under USD 400, the market reminding everyone that dreams still need cash flow.  But Tesla recovered today to close at USD 411.11.

Then there is Apple.  While other members of the tech titans fell, Apple rallied over 10%.  It is the only tech titan saying that they do need to outspend.   They just need to outsell. 

2 Narratives Now Rule The Market 

The Cloud Provider Logic:  Spend now, monetise later.  Build the AI backbone of the world.  This is Google, Amazon and Microsoft - the compute landlords of the future. 

The Consumer Monetisation Logic :

Don't build the universe.  Just build the device everyone uses to access it.  This is Apple - the toll collector of the AI era. 

Who Am I Bullish After Earnings? 

Google because in a world obsessed with capex fear, Google is the one company whose spending actually makes sense:

Google owns the full AI stack - model, chip, cloud, distribution. 

It has the clearest path to monetisation from Search, YouTube and Cloud. 

Google is finally showing discipline - clawing back losses with fundamentals, not vibes. 

Google isn't just spending.  It is positioning. 

When the market stops panicking about capex and starts asking who actually has the AI demand to justify this?  Google will be the one standing tallest. 

Would I Buy Apple? 

Apple's relative strength is stunning.  It is also a reminder that  Apple rallies when the market is scared.  Google rallies when the market is ready. 

If you want safety, you buy Apple.  If you want upside, you buy Google.  If you want to bottom fish, you look at Microsoft. 

But if you want the company that will turn capex into cash flow, the one that will monetise AI across every segment of its business, you choose Google. 

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