To The Moon

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $Eli Lilly(LLY)$   I’m watching $HIMS at a critical turning point where regulatory shock, collapsing momentum, and long-term technical support are colliding. Panic liquidation is now testing valuation levels that could either mark the start of a recovery base or the beginning of a deeper structural reset.

The immediate catalyst was the rapid launch and reversal of HIMS’ compounded oral semaglutide pill. Introduced at an entry price point to target needle-averse and cost-sensitive patients, the product faced immediate pushback from branded manufacturers and regulators. Within days, the FDA issued direct warnings around mass-marketed compounded GLP-1 offerings, citing safety and enforcement risks, and HIMS withdrew the pill following regulatory pressure and stakeholder discussions.

This sequence reinforced a hard reality. GLP-1 demand is enormous, but regulatory and intellectual property moats remain powerful. The episode exposed how fragile compounding strategies become once enforcement intensifies, highlighting the defensive positioning of branded leaders like $NVO and $LLY.

Meanwhile, price action has unwound aggressively from prior highs, with valuation repricing risk rapidly.

🧭 Market structure and technical flow

• Price trades below 13, 21 and 55 EMAs across key timeframes

• Keltner and Bollinger channels continue to slope downward, confirming bearish control

• Rallies repeatedly fail into resistance, creating liquidity pockets above price

• Downside legs carry heavier volume, signalling distribution rather than accumulation

• Momentum regime remains bearish until higher lows and volatility compression appear

Most importantly, price is now nearing a harmonic bat completion zone near $17.50, aligning with measured move exhaustion from the broader decline. Reaction behaviour has also appeared near the $20 area, marking an intermediate support zone.

That harmonic region is where I may evaluate staged long-term positioning, assuming downside momentum begins to stabilise and volatility compresses.

⚖️ Fundamentals remain intact, but risk is repriced

Despite regulatory shock, core financial metrics remain resilient. Revenue growth has remained strong across telehealth verticals, with trailing twelve-month revenue above $2B and improving profitability trends. The company maintains a solid cash position and continues to grow subscribers across multiple personalised care segments.

However, GLP-1 exposure, previously a growth accelerant, now carries higher volatility risk. If compounded offerings face sustained restriction, near-term growth and margins could moderate into 2026.

Valuation has compressed materially, now trading at far lower sales multiples compared to peak optimism. This repricing reflects both skepticism and potential asymmetry if non-GLP-1 segments demonstrate durability.

🚩 Governance and credibility pressures

Investor confidence has also been pressured by governance and positioning developments, with credibility concerns now feeding directly into valuation compression.

Recent insider activity highlights:

• CFO executing multiple share sales over recent months

• Insider selling persisting across the past year

• Sales occurring during periods of price weakness

While transactions may be scheduled or personal, repeated insider selling during drawdowns tends to pressure sentiment and raises alignment concerns among investors.

At the same time, positioning tells a more nuanced story:

• Institutional ownership has steadily increased over recent years

• Longer-term capital continues building exposure despite volatility

• Insider selling and institutional accumulation now diverge

This tension between insider selling and institutional participation will ultimately be resolved through company execution and financial performance.

Leadership has also strengthened regulatory and policy capabilities, including hiring former senior FDA expertise, signalling preparation for tighter enforcement environments as scrutiny intensifies.

🔍 Forward risk and opportunity scenarios

Several paths now sit ahead.

Base case ~ GLP-1 compounding contribution fades, but core telehealth verticals sustain growth, allowing valuation stabilisation at current compressed levels.

🐂 Bull case ~ Regulatory clarity, earnings validation, and diversification progress drive a re-rating, potentially aided by elevated short interest and positioning resets.

🐻 Bear case ~ Enforcement materially disrupts offerings, subscriber churn rises, margins compress, and valuation continues derating.

Key signals I’m watching include:

• Order flow behaviour near $20 and $17.50 support

• Volatility contraction and momentum stabilisation

• Subscriber and revenue guidance updates

• Insider and institutional positioning shifts

• Regulatory headline risk fading

Reversals rarely begin when sentiment feels safe. They start when fear meets valuation support and sellers finally exhaust. The coming quarters will determine whether HIMS rebuilds confidence from here or continues its structural unwind, and this zone may ultimately decide which path unfolds.

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