To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟On February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court issued a landmark 6-3 ruling, declaring that broad based tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are illegal.  The Court found that IEEPA does not grant the President the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs, as the power to tax - including duties and tariffs - rests solely with Congress under the Constitution.

This ruling invalidated approximately 75% of the tariffs implemented in 2025, including the "Reciprocal Tariffs" and "Trafficking and Immigration Tariffs".

The Impact of the Supreme Court Ruling 

Tariff "Whack-a-Mole":  Hours after the ruling, President Trump signed a new proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, initially imposing a 10% global tariff, which he quickly announced would increase to 15% (the maximum allowed under that law).

Section 232 Tariffs:  While IEEPA tariffs were struck down, industry specific Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminium, automobiles and heavy trucks remain in effect.

The Refund Stimulus: The ruling opens the door for companies to recover an estimated USD 160 billion to USD 175 billion in illegally collected tariffs.  While the refund process could take months or years of litigation, this represents a potential massive "fiscal stimulus" for companies in 2026.

The Macro Reality: Valuations and Policy Shocks

While a market pullback is a common reaction to such rulings, the main concern for investors is whether this signals a temporary volatility spike or the beginning of a systemic margin compression.

Current market conditions differ from previous trade cycles due to elevated valuations.  With major indices trading at record P/E multiples, there is less margin for error if corporate earnings are impacted by rising input costs.  However history has shown that markets eventually digest policies.  They have never stopped valuing long term earnings growth.

My Core Strategy: "The First Rule of Compounding"

In periods of policy driven uncertainty, the most effective disciplined approach is to stay invested.

As the late Charlie Munger famously said:

"The First Rule of Compounding:  Never interrupt it unnecessarily".

The Best Days Risk:  Financial history remains clear - missing just the 10 best trading days over a long term horizon can reduce your total returns by more than 50%.  

This is because the market's best days often follow its worst.  Attempting to time the dip frequently results in missing the subsequent recovery.  

Impact on a USD 10,000 Investment from 2005 to 2025

According to recent data spanning a 20 year period from 2005 to 2025, a USD 10,000 initial investment in the S&P500 would have performed as follows:

Fully Invested: The portfolio would have grown to USD 71,750, representing a 10.4 % annualised return.

Missed 10 Best Days:  The value would drop to USD 32,871, only a 6% return.

Missed 20 Best Days :  The portfolio would be worth USD 18,737, only a 3.5% return.

Missed 60 Best Days:  The investment would actually lose money, ending with a balance of only USD 4,712, a negative 3.7% return.

Verdict:  Trying to time the market requires being right twice:  once on when to sell and once on when to buy back.  Even missing only 10 days out of roughly 5,000 trading sessions in 20 years - can cut total returns by more than half.

This data shows that for long term wealth strategy of "Time in the markets" is far more critical than "Timing the markets".

My Strategy 

I would continue to dollar cost average (DCA) into broad index ETFs to automate entries and remove emotional bias.

The ETFs that I use are:

SPYM $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ as it tracks the S&P 500, providing me with diversified exposure to the 500 largest US  companies.  This includes the Magnificent 7 - NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Tesla as well as Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and many more.

SPYM has the lowest expense ratio of just 0.02%, putting more money into my pockets.    SPYM also pays dividends every 3 months.  The next dividend is due in March 2026.  The current dividend yield is 1.13%.

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$  is the home ground hero for every Singapore investor's compounding journey.  It tracks the Straits Times Index which recently breached the historic 5,000 milestone.  It offers exposure to 30 of Singapore's best blue chip companies.  These include the Big 3 local banks DBS, OCBC and UOB.

The expense ratio is a low 0.30%.  The current dividend yield is 3.5%.

As a Singaporean, dividends are 100% tax free with zero currency conversion fees.  As the Singapore government reforms unlock more value, STI ETF is the most direct way to capture the STI's sprint toward the 6,500 bull case target.

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$  tracks the FTSE China 50 Index.  This consists of the 50 largest and most liquid Chinese companies trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.  These include Alibaba Group, Tencent Holdings, China Construction Bank, Xiaomi, Ping An Insurance, Meituan, BYD and many more.

The expense ratio is 0.73%.  Dividends are paid every 6 months.  The current dividend yield is 2.35%.

FXI is my tactical "Dark Horse" as it offers a huge potential of a recovery play.  Unlike the S&P500 which trades at elevated multiples, FXI often trades at a significant discount, offering me a contrarian value play for my portfolio.

Concluding Thoughts 

In the Year of the Fire Horse, the fastest runner isn't always the one who wins.  The winner is the one who has the discipline to stay calm and stay invested.    By using the DCA strategy, I am not just buying stocks.  I am buying Time in the market.

Charlie Munger has famously said 

"The Big Money is Not in the Buying and Selling, But in the Waiting".

This iconic wisdom from Charlie Munger perfectly captures the "Secret Sauce" of the Year of the Fire Horse.  By being patient and staying invested, I am harnessing the most powerful force in the universe - Compounding.

To My Tiger Family 

May your Patience be strong.

May your Success stay on Autopilot 

May you have the Wisdom to Wait For the Big Money.

Huat Ah!  The Best is Yet to Come!🧧🧧🧧 🐯🐯🐯🐎🐎🐎🔥🔥🔥🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰

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