To The Moon

Intel Revisited

Did you notice that there has been quite a fair bit of news on $Intel(INTC)$ recently?

Indeed, INTC has demonstrated a notable decoupling from broader market volatility. (see below)

Despite prevailing uncertainty in the US market driven by the US-Iran conflict and fluctuating oil prices, INTC has emerged as a resilient outlier, signaling a potential permanent return to the semiconductor forefront after years in the "wilderness."

Personally, I think its likened to be an opening act of a turnaround, rather than proof of a permanent reclaiming of the semiconductor throne.

The strongest case is INTC is winning visible external foundry and packaging demand, yet the more cautious reading is that execution, ramp timing, and customer conversion still have to prove themselves at scale.

Strategic Pivots.

The latest news and INTC's most recent momentum, is anchored to high-profile validation of its foundry ambitions. (see below)

Pivot #1.

INTC will be joining Musk’s $20 to $25 billion Terafab mega AI-chip project with SpaceX, xAI, and TSLA.

This will be a watershed moment for the former #1 chip maker.

Its role will be tied to design, fabrication, and advanced packaging for AI and robotics workloads.

More important, the partnership is a meaningful foundry validation because it gives INTC a marquee external customer and lifts the narrative beyond internal product launches.

That means INTC is not just benefiting from its own comeback story; it is also being pulled forward by bottlenecks elsewhere in the supply chain.

The timing looks favourable because demand is forcing the market to consider alternate sources.

INTC, a home grown brand, appears to be one of few critical domestic options, positioned to absorb some of that overflowing demand, in the high-stakes AI infrastructure.

Pivot #2.

Simultaneously, INTC is in advanced negotiations with $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ to provide advanced packaging services for their custom AI accelerators, namely GOOG's TPUs and AMZN’s Trainium & Inferentia.

Advanced packaging, specifically INTC's EMIB and Foveros technologies, has become the new bottleneck in the AI race.

As $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ faces severe Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) capacity constraints, with hyperscalers now turning to INTC.

CFO Dave Zinsner recently signaled that these packaging deals could generate billions in annual revenue, a massive depart from the "hundreds of millions" previously guided.

These wins are expected to hit INTC’s bottom line well before meaningful wafer revenue from the 18A node arrives, thus providing a faster track to the foundry division’s 2027 breakeven goal.

Technical Analysis.

The technical setup for INTC supports the narrative of a slow but steady resurgence.

Over the past 12 months, the stock has transitioned from a defensive posture to a clear growth trajectory:

Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

On 07 Apr 2026, INTC closed the day at $52.91 /share.

This is healthily above its Simple Moving Averages (SMA) of 20-day ($45.66), 50-day ($46.09), and 200-day ($35.44).

**Note: With its 50-day SMA effectively crossing above its 200-day SMA back in August 2025, a classic bullish "Golden Cross" signal is confirmed and indicates long-term trend has definitively shifted upward.

MACD.

The MACD line (+0.6) is above the Zero line, reflecting a sustained buying momentum, while the Signal line (-0.08) is marginally below it.

The positive Divergence (+0.67) suggest that even during broader market dips due to Middle East geopolitical tension, INTC’s selling pressure was exhausted quickly, followed by a rapid "pivot bottom" on 30 Mar 2026 that fueled a nearly +30% rally.

RSI.

The 14-day RSI is sitting at 61.25 indicates that an asset is experiencing moderate to strong upward momentum.

There is ample room for price appreciation before the stock becomes technically overextended.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

Intel looks like it is making a real return, but it is not there yet.

At best, it could be characterized as a prelude to a structural transformation.

The Terafab deal, the packaging interests, and improved technical posture all point to a company that is re-entering the semiconductor forefront.

Before investors even consider celebrating, INTC’s financial "actuals" are still in the ramping phase.

Its foundry business is still operating at a loss due to the massive capital expenditures required for 18A production.

But, make no mistake, the shift is real.

Under the current CEO Lip-Bu Tan, INTC has successfully repositioned itself as an indispensable pillar of the US AI supply chain.

On 01 Apr 2026, INTC even announced a definitive agreement to repurchase 49% stake in its Irish Fab 34 joint venture from Apollo Global Management for $14.2 billion. (see below)

The move reclaims full ownership of the advanced chip-making facility in Leixlip, Ireland.

Indicating INTC’s increased financial confidence, strengtheed manufacturing footprint, and boosting its position in AI-driven CPU demand.

The permanent return to the forefront is no longer a distant hope; the infrastructure is being laid now, with 2027 remaining the critical target for full operational dominance. Watch for it?

The only question left to answer will be “do you buy” the narrative ? Consider building up your holding/s gradually. Agree ?

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