After Seagate Strong Results, Can SanDisk Reach $1100 As MS Expected?
$Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ released its earnings last night. Goldman Sachs analysts raised their price target from $385 to $700 on the same day — an 82% increase within three hours, with normalized EPS estimates revised from $17.50 to $32.00.
$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ earnings are about to be released on April 30th.
Seagate beat across the board
Revenue: $3.11B (+44.1% YoY), +5.5% above Street
Gross margin: 47.0%, +230bps vs Street
EPS: $4.10, +16.8% above Street
Q2 revenue guidance (midpoint): $3.45B, +10.3% vs Street
The most critical strategic signal: Management explicitly stated they do not plan to increase capacity. Keeping supply tight = deliberately maintaining pricing power.
Why Seagate’s results directly impact SanDisk’s valuation logic?
HDD and NAND are different technologies, but they share the same demand driver: AI data center capex from hyperscalers
Seagate just told the market: Demand is not just growing — it is already pre-booked into next year
Pricing power can be sustained under intentionally constrained supply
When demand exceeds expectations, cycle-through EPS assumptions can be repriced in a single day (+83%)
SanDisk price target up to $1,250
Morgan Stanley: $1,100 (raised from $690 three weeks ago, +59%) | Bernstein: $1,250 | Current price: ~$990
NAND pricing: 1Q26 actual QoQ +90% (vs guidance +60%); 2Q26E: +70–75% Incremental gross margin: 95.5%
MS valuation anchor: 23x cycle-through EPS $48 = $1,100
Current price is already ~95% of MS base case
From $990 to $1,100 = ~11% upside
What Seagate just changed?
Seagate proved that when supply-demand continues to exceed expectations, 👉 analysts will revise the base assumptions themselves
That makes Morgan Stanley’s $48 cycle-through EPS for SanDisk the key number to reassess post-earnings.
The only missing catalyst: LTA prepayments
Once multi-year contract prepayments appear on the balance sheet: Valuation shifts from “cycle pricing” → “contract visibility pricing”
Morgan Stanley expects this within this year
SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk management are all silent — not because nothing is happening, but because negotiations are not finalized yet
Discussion
What is your year-end price target for $SNDK?
Seagate’s normalized EPS jumped from $17.50 → $32.00 in one day — will SanDisk’s $48 cycle EPS be revised higher after earnings?
Will LTA prepayments show up this quarter? 👉 This is the real switch from $1,100 → $1,500.
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2. Yes, earnings per share or eps is likely to be revised higher
3.yes, Lta prepayments will increase further as spending increases
That’s why the read-through to $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ matters. Different tech, same demand driver — hyperscaler AI capex. With $1,100 largely priced in, my year-end target is $1,200–$1,300, depending on whether the $48 cycle EPS gets revised higher.
The key catalyst is LTA prepayments. If SanDisk locks in multi-year contracts, valuation can shift toward $1,500. Silence from SK Hynix and $Micron Technology(MU)$ likely reflects ongoing negotiations.
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