To The Moon

$Clorox(CLX)$ $Colgate-Palmolive(CL)$ $Church & Dwight(CHD)$ 📊 Clorox $CLX Q4 2026 Earnings: Acquisition Hides Cracks in the Core Business 🧴📉 Clorox beat both earnings and revenue expectations while guiding for another year of reported growth. 🟢 EPS: $1.66 vs $1.65 Est. 🟢 Revenue: $1.95B vs $1.91B Est. FY27 Guidance 📈 Net Sales: +13% to +14% 📈 Organic Sales: +3.5% to +4.5% 📈 Adjusted EPS: $5.70 to $6.00 At first glance, the quarter looked solid. Dig deeper and a very different story emerges. The GOJO (Purell) acquisition contributed roughly 10 percentage points of sales growth, masking a 13% collapse in organic sales as ERP-related inventory normalisation slashed shipments. Gross margin fell sharply by 520 basis points to 41.3%, while Adjusted EPS declined 42% year over year despite the earnings beat. 🐂 Bull Case 🟢 ERP disruption is largely behind the company. Inventory comparisons become much easier in FY27, providing a mechanical boost to reported growth. 🟢 GOJO transforms Clorox’s Health & Wellness business. Purell immediately added 28 percentage points of growth to the segment and gives Clorox greater exposure to an attractive long-term category. 🟢 Free cash flow remained resilient at $881M for FY26, supporting dividends, debt reduction and future investment. 🐻 Bear Case 🔴 Organic volume collapsed 13% as consumers traded down to cheaper alternatives and private labels. Pricing is no longer offsetting weaker demand. 🔴 Household, home to Glad, Fresh Step and Kingsford, remains under heavy pressure. Sales fell 18% while EBIT plunged 56%. 🔴 Gross margin dropped to 41.3% and management expects only around 42% in FY27, suggesting inflation, integration costs and weaker mix will remain headwinds. ⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish The headline beat flatters the underlying business. FY27 growth will be driven largely by acquisition accounting and easier ERP comparisons rather than a meaningful recovery in consumer demand. Until Clorox proves it can restore volumes and expand margins organically, I remain cautious. Key Themes 🔴 Household business remains the weakest link. Double-digit volume declines and fierce promotional activity continue to pressure profitability. 🔴 Gross margin recovery has stalled. GOJO integration costs, commodity inflation and manufacturing expenses reversed much of the progress made over the past year. 🟢 GOJO provides scale and diversification but also introduces structurally lower margins, making execution critical over the next 12 months. 🟢 ERP disruption becomes a tailwind in FY27, although investors should separate accounting-driven growth from genuine consumer demand. ⚪ International continues to outperform with 4% sales growth and 17% EBIT growth, highlighting the strength of operations outside North America. Key KPIs 💰 FY26 Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $881M, up from $761M in FY25. 🧴 Health & Wellness Sales: $860M, up 16%, almost entirely driven by GOJO. Organic sales still declined 12%. FY27 Outlook 📈 Net Sales: +13% to +14% 📈 Organic Sales: +3.5% to +4.5% 📈 Adjusted EPS: $5.70 to $6.00 📉 Gross Margin: Approximately 42% The guidance implies reported growth will be powered by GOJO and easier comparisons, while underlying profitability remains under pressure. 👉❓Will GOJO prove to be the catalyst that reignites Clorox’s growth story, or is it simply masking a deeper deterioration in the legacy brands? 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost, Comment and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market, share ideas and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀