【Livestream Clip 3｜Ross Dong: Nvidia's PE Fell, But the AI Story Isn't Broken】
【LIVESTREAM RECAP｜Where U.S. Stocks, Semis, and Gold Go in Late 2026？Navigating Fed Policy,Treasury Buybacks and the Next Cycle】
Hi Tigers! In this session we zoomed in on three big threads for the back half of 2026 — U.S. equities, semiconductors, and gold — and tied them to the macro engines beneath: a Fed under new leadership, stubbornly elevated long-end yields, AI capex, and the semiconductor cycle. The flow was clear: from the Treasury's quietly expanded buyback program, to why long-end yields are rising globally, to cooling inflation and the Fed's policy turn, and finally to U.S. valuations, Nvidia, and gold as a portfolio combination. Six perspectives, connected into one actionable map.
Full replay 👉 Where U.S. Stocks, Semis, and Gold Go in Late 2026？Navigating Fed Policy,Treasury Buybacks and the Next Cycle
【ABOUT THE GUEST】
Our speaker, Ross Dong, is an old friend of the Tiger community, back again for another deep dive. He holds a BSc in Applied Math from Columbia University and spent the defining years of his career as an equity trader at JP and KCG — someone who has actually sat on the desk. Today he is a partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management and the founder of Gongxin Academy. What makes his view rare: he reads the macro big picture, but explains — from a trader's seat — how those forces really transmit into prices.
【HIGHLIGHTS】
1. The buyback that became a "Treasury twist": why this, not the word "buyback" itself, is the real lever capping long-end yields — a mechanism many miss.
2. The Fed under new leadership: markets' real worry isn't hikes or cuts, but how a rollback in transparency could slow policy transmission.
3. AI paired with gold: Nvidia's PE fell but the story isn't broken — how Ross uses gold to cut the volatility of AI winners.
Live Recap:
Live Recap 1: A Less Transparent Fed, a Treasury "Twist," and a 30-Year Yield Last Seen in 2007
Live Recap 2: US Equities Are Expensive — But Are They Priced for Perfection?
Live Recap 3: Inside the Situational Awareness Unwind — And Why Nvidia's Multiple Just Got Cheaper
Live Recap 4: Gold's Crowded Bull Case, Portfolio Construction, and Q&A Highlights
【THIS CLIP】Nvidia's PE fell — is the AI story broken? Ross says no. Using a forward-PE-vs-earnings-growth comparison, he shows the U.S. market's ~21x looks pricey but is backed by ~19–20% forward earnings growth, well ahead of Europe, the UK, and Hong Kong — so the premium is at least partly justified by fundamentals. His key point for the next phase: further upside must come from earnings delivery, not multiple expansion, and he flags a striking ~$460B buyback forecast for Micron.
We genuinely recommend watching the full replay, especially the parts on the Treasury buyback mechanism and Fed transparency that many skim past — that's the piece that ties the whole macro logic together.
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(For education only, not investment advice.)
Full replay 👉 Where U.S. Stocks, Semis, and Gold Go in Late 2026？Navigating Fed Policy,Treasury Buybacks and the Next Cycle
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@Soyabean89
What I found especially interesting was the portfolio angle: AI and gold can complement each other. Semiconductors offer exposure to structural growth, while gold can hedge against fiscal uncertainty, inflation and policy volatility. Meanwhile, Treasury buybacks and a less transparent Fed could create new transmission risks for long-term yields.
For the second half of 2026, I would focus less on predicting the next market move and more on identifying where earnings expectations are still realistic—and where optimism has already gone too far.
@TBlive [胜利]
现在标普远期估值大约21倍，看起来确实不便宜，但如果未来盈利还能维持接近20%的增长，这个溢价就不是完全没有基础。尤其是NVDA这类公司，市盈率下降不一定代表AI故事破灭，反而可能是 盈利增长速度暂时跑赢了股价。
所以我觉得接下来判断AI和半导体，不能只问“贵不贵”，而要问两个问题：盈利预期还能不能继续上修，以及现金流能不能跟上利润增长。 如果盈利持续兑现，即使估值不继续抬升，股价仍然可以靠EPS增长往上走；反过来，如果盈利开始降速，再高的故事也撑不住现在的估值。
这也是为什么我对AI主线仍然偏多，但会越来越挑公司：从过去的“买赛道”，转向 买订单、买利润、买现金流。
一句话：AI下一阶段不是靠PE从30倍涨到40倍，而是靠EPS真的把股价抬上去。