To The Moon

The indices: Dow up, Nasdaq flat, a split that maps onto earnings week

The three indices diverged on Tuesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 1.02 per cent to 52,495.88; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent to 7,712.57; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ was nearly unchanged, closing down 0.02 per cent at 26,424.82. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.12 per cent. The Dow–Nasdaq split tracks the shape of this week's reporting calendar: technology names started spreading risk before the numbers are in, some moving forward, some pulling back.

Memory: the CXMT overhang still has not cleared

$Micron Technology(MU)$ fell 0.98 per cent to US$896.07, $SK hynix(SKHY)$ fell 2.16 per cent to US$139.79, and $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ fell 0.42 per cent to US$1,365.38. The supply-side concern triggered by CXMT's 4F² architecture announcement last week has not faded. $Intel(INTC)$ fell 0.37 per cent to US$91.69 on the same day; a research report compared the relative exposure of Intel and Micron to CXMT competitive pressure. Commodity DRAM pricing is waiting for actual shipment data at year-end.

SpaceX results: AI business goes from supporting act to lead in one quarter, up more than 8 per cent after hours

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ reported Q3 2026 results after the close. Revenue of US$14.58 billion was up 161 per cent year over year, ahead of the consensus estimate of US$12.72 billion. Net income of US$4.4 billion marked the company's first quarterly profit since listing; a year earlier it had lost US$1.05 billion. By segment, the Super Intelligence AI business brought in US$7.56 billion, up 830 per cent year over year, lifting its revenue share to 52 per cent and overtaking Starlink as the largest segment. Connectivity revenue was US$5.25 billion, up 69 per cent, with the enterprise and government sub-segment up 91 per cent. Starlink subscribers reached 13.6 million, up 89 per cent year over year. The results sent SPCX up more than 8 per cent after hours; the regular-session close was US$147.79, down 0.11 per cent, with the earnings released after the bell. Looking forward, Q4 capital expenditure is projected at US$35–40 billion, well above the Q3 figure of US$19.6 billion — this is the company's own forward projection, not a committed spending amount. AI is now the top revenue line, but the pace of spending is accelerating alongside it.

Tesla and SpaceX merger committees: Musk confirmed it on the call

On the same earnings call, Musk confirmed that the boards of SpaceX and Tesla have each formed special committees of independent directors to evaluate a potential combination. He said he holds equity in both companies and is a conflicted party, which is why he is not part of either committee and the final call rests with the independent directors. He said "I do think there is a lot of merit to combining the companies," and added that "the committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction" and "there is no guarantee that they will." On the Tesla side, a merger would require approval from 50 per cent of all outstanding shares — not just a majority of votes cast — which Musk described as "quite a high hurdle." $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ closed up 1.54 per cent at US$373.71; its Q3 results are due after the close on Wednesday. Two paths follow. Should the independent committees agree on valuation, this becomes the largest technology merger on record. Should the process stall, the Tuesday gain only priced a rumour that has not landed. The thing to watch is what both committees disclose on Wednesday's Tesla earnings call.

Supermicro up 12 per cent after hours: Q1 revenue guidance raised by US$4 billion

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ released a preliminary business update after the close, raising its first-quarter revenue guidance to US$18.5–19.5 billion from US$14.5–15.5 billion, well above the analyst consensus of roughly US$15 billion — this is the company's own forward projection, not a confirmed order book; actual figures will come with the formal results. The company cited a sharp increase in demand for AI server platforms, driven by high-density rack products built around Nvidia chips. Gross margin guidance improved to 12–12.5 per cent from 10.4 per cent–10.8 per cent. SMCI rose more than 12 per cent after hours. The reference point is that in July Supermicro warned Q4 revenue could come in at the low end of its range; this update lifts the entire range by US$4 billion. The formal earnings release is scheduled for 3 November.

Meta: five straight days lower as the market waits for Wednesday's results

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 1.59 per cent to US$694.25, its fifth consecutive day of declines and an underperformer versus the Nasdaq and most large caps. There was no single company-level trigger; the move looks more like defensive repositioning before results: in the last quarter, free cash flow shrank to US$784 million because capital expenditure consumed almost all operating cash flow. Analysts project Q3 revenue of roughly US$63.4 billion, leaving about US$600 million of headroom under management's US$64 billion guidance ceiling. Wednesday's after-hours report is one of the most closely watched events in technology this week. The thing to watch is free cash flow and the revenue contribution from AI products in Wednesday's results.

This is personal analysis and not investment advice.

💬 【Talking Point】

Elon Musk said the Tesla-SpaceX merger needs a 50% approval from all Tesla shareholders — not just those who vote. What does that threshold tell you about how certain this deal actually is?

💰 【Bounty】

Drop your view in the comments and there are Tiger Coins in it for you! 🎁

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