Is Non-farm Payrolls the Straw on the Camel's Back?
Tomorrow non-farm data, a review of the market after the previous three announcements.
Non-farm data are usually released on the Friday of the first week of the month. You might think the March numbers are coming out early because tomorrow happens to be Friday, the first week of April.
So these days the hotel aviation plate up better. Through small non-agricultural data, the market believes that the wine travel industry began to recover further.
But in turn, the non-farm data is better, but will support interest rate hike expectations. Many Wall Street banks have raised their expectations for the next rate rise to 50 basis points. So tech stocks fell back on expectations of higher interest rates.
The market has now rebounded to the February non-farm release level. The chart above shows that the non-farm data for February was very strong, but then the stock market fell. The earnings season is over at the same time, the overall economic indicators are mediocre, plus the HAWkish tone from the European Central Bank.
March coincided with the Russia-Ukraine war. Give way to the biggest risk factor, which is hard to judge.
The most interesting one is the January non-farm. The time when interest rate expectations ferment most strongly. That's when Musk predicted the U.S. financial crisis. I think Musk's prediction is largely responsible for the subsequent crash.
To sum up, this off-farm is the smallest of the combined risk factors. There is no urgency to raise interest rates, the war is largely over and earnings reports have yet to be released. As long as Musk does not speak casually, there is no geopolitical war, the large probability of the market or high shock.
But what if something goes wrong? The stock market works like this: top, pullback, rebound, top. Currently in the process of peak callback, rebound breakthrough continues to rise; If the rally doesn't go well and can't be broken, see the early march lows, i.e., the MA20.
Apple, for example, is around 165, which I personally think is acceptable.
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[smile]