To The Moon

Today not open positions, originally wanted to talk about VXX trading methods, but a few friends asked me how to see Russian stocks, so I will talk about.

Unlike other stocks, we should first talk about the delisting risk of Russian shares. Brokers previously informed many Russian companies listed in the U.S. and U.K. that they had been restricted from opening positions by underlying liquidators, including$Yandex(YNDX)$ 、$SBERBANK(SBER.UK)$ 、$MMC NORILSK ADR(MNOD.UK)$ 、$PJSC GAZPROM(OGZD.UK)$

Only a few stocks are still traded, as far as I know$VanEck Russia ETF(RSX)$ and$RUSAL(00486)$ .RUSAL's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange should not be too much of a problem, so I chose to go bottom-fishing.

$VanEck Russia ETF(RSX)$ is a U.S. -listed Russia index ETF, one interesting thing I found when I looked at the composition of the ETF. $POLYMETAL INT(POLY.UK)$ and $EVRAZ PLC(EVR.UK)$ are still trading normally. Most of the stocks banned from trading are Russian ADRs, while those directly listed in the UK, such as POLY, can trade normally.

While it looks like $VanEck Russia ETF(RSX)$ is currently within sanctions' reach, you never know.

And if the price of ETF is too low, there will also be liquidation risk, the impression is that many parallel ETF disappeared for this reason.

So Russian stocks fell so much, should be bottom or continue to do short?

Most people can understand the short argument, not the long one. But in terms of real asset values, many Russian bulk companies are oversold. Unlike technology and e-commerce companies, which rely on trade to generate revenue, steel, metals, gas and gold companies derive value from owning physical assets and are undeniably undervalued.

So the case for going short is the expectation that risk will continue to build, while the case for going long is the expectation that values will return in a few months. And because both arguments exist, they are the pros and cons of the short/long strategy.

The easiest way to short is to buy put：$RSX 20220318 2.0 PUT$. From this week's drop 62% of the situation, as soon as next week can collect premium, is expected to have double earnings, even if next week stop falling rebound, loss is controllable.

There are two ways to go long. One is to buy shares, such as $RUSAL(00486)$ .Consider restricted trading reasons not recommended$VanEck Russia ETF(RSX)$ .

The other option is a short put. Considering that the strike price of $1 is too cheap, you can choose put with an strike price of $2$RSX 20220311 2.0 PUT$.

That means if the stock falls less than $2 in the next week, you'll get $0.25 for every $5.76 margin, a staggering 225% annualized return!

To get a sense of the risk-reward ratio, consider tesla's annualized price, which is currently 839. If we short the put at 835 next week, the annualized return is 181%. Apple's at-the-money options, which expire next week, have an annualized return of 78%.

While it may not seem high, shorting PUT has an unexercisable loophole: if the ETF does not fall to the strike price when it is liquidated, we can earn the rights directly. If the ETF liquidation fell below the royalty, at this time exercise need to call the broker, the seller has a high probability is not to take over.

To sum up, although it may seem tempting to annualize short Put, if I were given a choice today, I would choose to buy put$RSX 20220318 2.0 PUT$, for the simple reason that today is Friday. If it was Monday, I might struggle with it for a while, but in today's markets, there's a good chance of a surprise package at the end of the week.