To The Moon

Good evening, tigers！

I didn't post my reviews for two weeks, because the market was too volatile, and my overview was the same as before. I don't want to comment on Russia-Ukraine crisis. Such a huge international situation is beyond my understanding, and I can't analyze the market, so I don't want to give you some noise.

But I think, as negotiations began, maybe one round and one round, but the market will shift its eyes from the war to the Fed meeting in mid-March. Powell's speech in this week will attract more attention, and may give the market more guidance on whether to raise interest rates by 50bp or 25bp in March. Now the market consensus is at 25bp. I think it's a bit risky to add 50bp at the beginning because Russia and Ukraine are making such a big noise.

Last week, I increased my position in Apple and bought shares at $155. I used to hold Sell Put Option with 18/2 expiration, but seeing that it started to rebound on Thursday, I thought it might be too late to wait for take over shares through exercise in the weekend, so I bought some shares directly. And I also have Tesla Sell Put Option with a expiration date of 18/2 and strike price at $780. It was big swing last week, with the lowest point at $700. But on Friday, it was back above $800. My option were not exercised.Unfortunately, I am willing to take over.

Now, Apple is still my largest position, is making a floating profit. Tesla's previous takeover cost is still in more than $900 that is floating losses, ATVI is making a floating profit at a cost of $80, and I hold ATVI's Sell Put at $80. There are some Call options in KuaiShou-W, but they will be invalidated. Before I explained why I bought call options, the total lost will be option's premium.

I total lost thousands of dollars on February, mainly because the cost of Tesla was $960. Because there are options all the time, the total loss that in my expectation. Yesterday, I continued to Sell Tesla's put options and sell it covered calls for new week.

Now, let's start to review. but I didn't post my last two weeks' review to the tiger, because the big black swan here, and the market effectiveness was critically attacked by the black swan, fearing to mislead everyone. Therefore, I also want to emphasize that the post only represents my personal observations and opinions. The market is changing all the time. The black swans more than we thought. Who knows what gonna happen.

The graph of Nasdaq Index is quite similar to S&P 500 index, but the rebound must be driven by risk appetite, so I pay more attention to Nasdaq. I said that the index must go to the right leg before. If It took off the line in last Thursday, It finished the right leg last Wednesday, but Thursday's break made people panic. I was a little confused when I watched Tesla fall that day. But I think the market owes a rebound, geopolitical wars are temporary in history.

I still think that the market owes a decent rebound, it may be rebound ti 14500-14700. But it is not surprising to step back on the yellow range below after three days rebound. I think the short-term bottom of the Nasdaq already appear last Thursday, at least in March. What is the driving for the rebound? I think there is a high probability that the Fed will raise interest rates as expected that only 25bp. Of course, if the result is 50bp, the market may die. To emphasize that the rebound is called rebound for the time being, and then it is up and down. Let's see later.​

Let's look at Russell 2000, which has been emphasized for the past two weeks. This index is not consistent with other major indexes, and the trend of IWM also supports my NASDAQ view above. IWM is Russell 2000 ETF, which formed a double bottom in volume last Thursday without breaking its position. I said before that Russell, as a small-cap stock index, was the first to fall out of the dead fork, and now the bottom forms favorable support, reflecting the return of market risk appetite.​

Look at my Apple. There are a annual line correction last Thursday, it was very solid. That is why I can't wait to exercise my options and just buy it directly at $155. What is going on? I will continue to sell $155 and $150 Put Options. And I will sell covered call at strike price $170,/175. As a reminder, Apple will hold a general meeting of shareholders on March 4th and a spring conference will be on March 8th.​

Looking at the thrilling Tesla that has completed the weekly level correction, and the short-term bottom has come out. If you bought Tesla last Thursday, Congratulations! the gambling is stronger! Since the previous support of about $900 has become a resistance level now, I will Sell covered call for my postion.

Looking back at last year's line, Tesla had the maximum adjustment reached 40%, which is almost the same as last week. It took a relatively large consolidation cycle before it continued to reach a new high. I will continue to sell Tesla's put at $780, and maybe step back on the weekly support after rebounding.​

To sum up, the market focus in March will gradually shift from geopolitical conflict to the expectation of Fed's meeting. At present, the market needs a decent rebound. The Nasdaq and S&P closed down-3.4% and-3. 14% in February, and there is a high probability that they will not perform worse in March, or at least in early March, you can make profit from rebounding, but pay attention to your positions. As for whether to continue to explore after the rebound, wait and see. I wish everyone can earn in March.

~$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$​$S&P 500(.SPX)$​$Apple(AAPL)$​$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$​$Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$