To The Moon

CNBC host Jimmy Cramer said he was wondering why the market rose yesterday, and I felt the same way. Although the market feedback is very positive yesterday, nasdaq rose 2%. But if you go through the options order, you'll find that a lot of stocks last night were hiding underpriced options.

The reason why the market is so positive I guess is affected by the resumption of work and production. Shipping stocks below the 120 moving average ZIM yesterday began to rebound. Container shipping is likely to see a "very strong" recovery from late April, according to shipping group bosses.

The lack of negative feedback from European stocks on the escalation of the russia-Ukraine dispute is also puzzling.

Shares of ASML rose 6% after the company reported earnings before the market today. Looking at the numbers, ASML's rise doesn't make sense: first-quarter profits more than halved from the previous quarter, sales fell 29% quarter-on-quarter, and growth remained unchanged at 20% for the year. The only piece of good news was the company's upbeat outlook for capacity, indicating a remapping of growth opportunities beyond 2025.

In October, ASML raised its 2025 forecast to annual revenues of €24bn - €30bn, compared with its previous forecast for sales of €15bn - €24bn. I do have a guess where this growth opportunity is coming from: It's $Intel(INTC)$ : Intel and ASML strengthen their collaboration to drive High-NA into manufacturing in 2025。

But I am not too optimistic about the semiconductor sector, and so on tomorrow LRCX earnings analysis.

$Netflix(NFLX)$

Netflix has no chance of turning itself around in the next two quarters unless it is acquired.

1. Global net paying subscribers fell by 200,000, the first net subscriber decline in 11 years, when the company had expected a gain of 2.5 million and the market had expected a gain of 2.73 million.
2. Global net paying subscribers are expected to plummet by 2 million in the second quarter, or a net decline for the second consecutive quarter.
3. Management is incompetent and attributes the subscriber decline to 100 million shared accounts.

For stocks with too much upward pressure, bear market spread strategy, sell call, buy PUT can be used. Better to prevent buy-out blowouts, bear market spreads or buy put.

There is no suspense at the opening tonight, bears need to buy to cover positions, first up and then down, or down, or to maintain a bearish trend.

There are also opportunities for companies in the same industry. Disney$Walt Disney(DIS)$ had a big put last night $DIS 20220617 115.0 PUT$. I think this is also bearish support. Checking options on peers before the next earnings release can turn the odds into a more certain speculative opportunity.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$ & $Snap Inc(SNAP)$

Here's what's new for two stocks. Earnings season volatility has to be monitored every day, and traders with ideas don't necessarily ambush ahead of time, but may make last-minute raids.

Several options with very low strike prices appeared on the $Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$ and $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ lists in the past two days:

• $FB 20230120 160.0 PUT$
• ​$FB 20220715 175.0 PUT$
• ​$SNAP 20230120 20.0 PUT$

The common feature of these options is that they are extremely out-of-the-money and the expiration date is very long.

A low strike price is bearish, so does that mean FB will fall to 160 and SNAP to 20?

The good news is THAT I don't think either company will fall that low this time around; But the bad news is that I think the two maturing in January look more like long-term bears. That means earnings will fall this time, but traders are not sure how far, so they buy put out of the forward price as bearish leverage.

We'll see if that's true after the earnings report.

Meaningful reference prices for SNAP and FB are these two: $SNAP 20220422 28.0 PUT$、$FB 20220715 175.0 PUT$