To The Moon

Two weeks ago, I  thought that the gold price had ended its adjustment and was expected to enter a new round of upward market.

Now, when the price of gold$ Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$ is approaching the $2000 mark again, let's compare the performance of US gold mining companies again, and see whether the result is the same bullish signal?

The Relationship between Gold and Silver Futures and Individual Stocks

Looking back at the historical trend, it is not difficult to find that gold futures are the leader of all markets and the most stable variety. The performance of gold directly affects and drives the stock prices of related listed companies.

In fact, the logic is not difficult to understand. Under the premise of the dynamic balance of other costs and expenses, the more expensive the product price, the higher the company's revenue and profit.

In the real sustained bull market, without considering the leverage factor, the performance of strong stocks will be more violent than the gold futures price. On the one hand, the concept of large and small plates directly affects the utility of funds; On the other hand, the valuation of listed companies obviously has a better reference target than the pricing of gold futures.

To sum up, gold futures start the market, US gold stocks continue and heat the market, and silver usually acts as the last stick of relay.

How are gold stocks now?

We have selected two recent representative gold stocks as reference. The current trend of $Barrick Gold Corp(GOLD)$ is basically similar to that of futures gold. Although it is far from the historical high, the short-term market is actually consistent with gold ETFs and futures gold.

Another famous $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ is sharp, taking the lead in rebounding to a new high.

​The trend of other gold stocks is slightly different, but they basically repeat the trend of gold futures. Generally speaking, gold companies have verified that the performance of futures gold in the near future is effective.

What is the cleverest way to invest in precious metals?

This brings us back to the last sentence of the first paragraph.

We know that if you didn't get on gold last year, you would probably not consider the current price. And to be honest, there is really no need to chase after the current cost performance. So, can we consider the silver that is still running in the sorting interval?

Silver has long played a late-comer role. When the market really makes a breakthrough, silver usually rises/falls rapidly to catch up with most of the rises and falls of gold.

After synchronizing with the adjustment of gold, silver basically went through a big sideways shock.This year, although it has made a little upward breakthrough with gold, it is still a little far above the previous important high of 30. However, the good news is that the downward trend line from 30 has been broken, and it has been confirmed by stepping back.

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​As we said before, there is still a difference between gold and silver in cycle. Gold is going through the last fifth wave, while silver is still being sorted out in the second wave. This consolidation is over, followed by a fierce third wave, the main rising wave. Even though the current silver price has increased by 20% compared with the end of last year, it is still lower than gold's performance.

Therefore, if you are willing to bear certain fluctuation risks, you might as well consider silver, which has not been sought after by mainstream funds.

According to the previous gold investment logic, we will make fixed investment from now on, and further actively do more after standing firm for 30 years. Only after gold declines or silver falls below the low point of the consolidation platform will the trend change be considered.

$Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$

$Silver - main 2203(SImain)$

$Light Crude Oil - main 2206(CLmain)$

$Natural Gas - main 2205(NGmain)$

$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2206(NQmain)$