To The Moon

Everyone can see that Semiconductor sector led the past two declines. As BETA driven sector,$VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$, the Semiconductor ETF rebounded to the first resistance only, then it fell again to the low point in March, but Nasdaq still has 5% room compared with the low point in March.​

If SMH continues to fall, its key components may continue to fall,especially at$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$,$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$,,$AMD(AMD)$And$Micron Technology(MU)$.​

I looked for what happened in the industry. At present, the shortage of chip demand still exists, and many news says that this shortage will be alleviated in the second half of this year, so we can get specific guidelines during the companies' earnings conferences.

The cost increase caused by inflation is inevitable, or may be more serious than imagined. On the other hand, the demand for storage is sluggish, and the price of DRAM has been declining since it peaked in Q3 last year. The price of GPU is also falling after rising for 18months, and the market expects that its prcie to collapse, which is said to be affected by demand of mining.

Semiconductor used to be the representative of high beta and strong cycle. When the cycle peaks obviously, the premium before the stock price may be killed more severely. I noticed that SMH's unusual option in the past two days all came from PUT. Its stock price did not rise sharply, but it was continuously chased by PUT, probably trade for earnings.​

Then, AMD's graphic are broken. I had done AMD SELLPUT two weeks ago, but I was not exercised, or I would lose money now. Thinking back of the trade, I did notice the fundamental changes, but we didn't think that the market would kill the valuation at this time as hard as giving the premium when it rose. If a long-term trend line falls below, I will not do unilateral SELL PUT for the time being.​

In addition, AMD's result wiil be 3rd May. In past two days, a large number of straddle options were traded, all at an exercise price of $95. I am very interested in participating in this straddle, neither bullish nor bearish, and high beta stocks have volatility.​

​$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$Stronger than AMD, it is also on the key support.​

However, there are more people betting on NVDA rebound than bearish it, but there are also more straddle options, indicating that the earnings just around the corner, and everyone doesn't want to bet on one-way.​

$TSMC (TSM) $ there are a lot of TSMC's call options, and most of them are OTM. But the graph has fallen below a very long-term swing range. I won't buy bullish at present, and I still have to wait for the graph to return.​

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