To The Moon

When I shared the article "NIO its a Buy says Deutsche Analyst. Potential > +28%", I received feedback that could be categorized as :

• Negative.
• Cynical.
• Doubtful.
• Brush off.
• Hopeful.
• Confident.

Regardless of whichever category the comments fall under, for a fleeting moment there was a link between the respondent & me. 

It let me have a "narrow-bias" insight into the reader, who had kindly shared his/her viewpoint.

What did I gain in the process ? (selecting a few categories to address only)

Negative.

• The reader is negative largely because $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ to him/her is a stock nobody wants; not even as a meme. 
• The first thing that came to mind is Tiger apps' daily discussion post that ranks the Top 10 popular stocks daily. 
• NIO happens to be in the Top 10 for quite a while already no ?
• Of course what Tiger apps put out is within Tiger's parameter understandably.
• To maintain objectivity, will need to cast the net wider & look at what are the hot stocks in other Trading Platform too no ? 
• Refer to (below) Standard Chartered online trading platform Top 10 popular stocks (Nov 2022).
• Leave you to draw your own conclusion ok .... hee hee.

Std Chartered - Top 10 popular stocks (Nov 2022)

Cynical.

• The summary premise is NIO is good for speculation only and does not hold any traction.
• It does not have long term investors because of speculation activity.
• When a generic statement is made, it could be applied almost to any stocks listed in the US market no ? Whahahaha...

Brushoff.

• Is the value of a company tightly coupled to its share price ?
• Does this runs counter to Mr Buffet's investment mantra ?
• I do get the well-intention behind the message; in that a sensible investor should not get attached to a stock.
• Instead, sell when opportunity (profit) arises and perhaps buy back when the price falls ?
• For long term investors, this maybe a new trick to be included in one's investment repetoire in 2023 ? Definitely food for thoughts ! Thanks.

Two ways to pose the same question - Why NIO or Why Not NIO ?

There are too many areas to cover. Will ring-fence so that the directly related factors are covered, to keep this post short, sweet & sassy.

EV production capacity & milestones.

• The ability to produce a quality finished product & sell it, is the main objective of any business.
• Lets take a look at NIO's production journey and its milestones.
• 27 May 2018 - 1st EV rolled off production line.
• 01 Apr 2021 - 100,000th EV rolled off production line - 2 yrs 10mths approx.
• 26 Apr 2022 - 200,000th EV rolled off production line - 1 yr 26 days approx
• 12 Dec 2022 - 300,000th EV rolled off production line - 7mths 19 days approx

NIO Battery Packs & Swap Stations installation.

Unlike most EV makers whose sole objective is to sell and forget about it; NIO's business model took the approach of continuous customer's experience down to the important component in any EV - its Battery Pack.

By offering "Battery as a Service"

• it reduces purchase cost of an EV upfront, making it more "attractive" & "affordable"?
• it enhances a customer's experience by eliminating the wait time to recharge a flat battery; just pop into a swap station to get replaced with a fully charged in minutes
• it takes care of the "end of shelf life" of a battery
• it eliminates the need for an EV owner to fork out a lump sum (hefty) to replace the battery upon reaching its end of life or end of shelf life.
• it allows the option to upgrade to (a) bigger capacity battery (b) solid state battery when they are available

NIO Netherlands - 1st Swap Station

Swap Stations installation progress

• As of 18 Nov 2022, there are > 1,200 swap stations installed in China.
• As of Sep 2022, there are 2 swap stations installed in Norway - NIO's first foreign market.
• As of late Sep 2022, there is 1 swap station installed in Germany and 20 planned in the pipeline. **note - NIO officially opened for business, early Oct in Germany.
• As of end Oct 2022, there is 1 swap station installed in The Netherlands.
• As of 17 Nov 2022, there is 1 swap station installed in Sweden.
• As of 13 Dec 2022, there is 2nd swap station installed in The Netherlands. At Apeldoorn, this spanking new swap station will serve both local drivers and those those traveling to Germany. 

Can you see the Big picture ?

The 2nd swap station at The Netherlands, marks the beginning of strategically located swap station installation so that overtime, it forms a network of swap stations throughout Europe.

To enable NIO owners to drive inter-countries; just like the Euro Rail that traverses european countries daily.

By headquartering the Europe's Swap Station office in Hungary, CEO William Li has effectively, decentralized the task of fortifying a network of swap stations in Europe to take shape and have a life / agenda of its own.

Autonomous Driving (AD) - rounding component of EV.

To complete the final vision of EV will be the ability of the EV driving passengers from point A to point B without intervention from humans.

I have a detailed post on what is all about. Do refer to the linked-article if interested. Tks.

Original post - https://ttm.financial/post/9962234035

Instead of reinventing the wheel, NIO has partnered with Tencent (world leading internet & technology company) to achieve the objective of AD & High definition mapping.

The advantages of this partnership could be found in the original article; to keep this post tight ok. Tks.

Tesla Early Years amnesia

Just about when anyone talks about Tesla; from Wall Street analyst to retail investors they seemed to have forgotten that Tesla had encountered the same issues current EV makers are facing - no less.

Or perhaps they have no idea at all or feign ignorance (another possibility).

If we perform an apple to apple comparison of time taken for NIO & Tesla to produce their respective 100,000th, 200,000th and 300,000th EV.

Tesla's 100,000th, 200,000th & 300,000th EV produced

• Q3 2012 - 1st Model S rolled off production line.
• Q4 2015 - 100,000th EV rolled off production line - 3yrs+ approx.
• Q1 2017 - 200,000th EV rolled off production line - 1yr 3mths approx
• Q1 2018 - 300,000th EV rolled off production line - 9mths+ approx

Are you surprised to find that NIO achieved the milestones earlier than Tesla; despite encountering Covid lockdown, supply chain challenges etc.. ?

Since 2018, Tesla has relied on its 4 Gigafactories located in (1) Fremont, (2) Texas - US, (3) Berlin,Germany and (4) Shanghai, China pushing out all 3 different models of EVs and in huge quantity and record time as well.

This resulted in a lot of recalls, shoddy work reported etc... due to lack of time to perform quality control perhaps ? Just google and the search engine will list them for you.

George Soros invested in NIO.

Legendary American investor George Soros has iincreased its purchases of NIO bonds. Soros Fund also bought calls on NIO for the first time in Q3 2022.

Soros's Funds - as of Q3 2022

Mr Soros is known both for his business acumen as well as for his philantrophy work. As a veteran who has been in the industry since 1973; do you think he would have invested in NIO if its a failure ?

Do you think this is a confidence booster ? With the stamp of approval all over, admittedly, I do. Hee hee !

Warren Buffett & George Soros will forever be regarded as two of the world's most brilliant investing minds... as per Investopedia.....

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