To The Moon

U.S. stocks and ETFs $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$  have been trading sideways for about three consecutive weeks in their current position . The typical dinaus index has repeatedly fluctuated sharply around 12,000. In a few days, in the early morning of May 3, a new Federal Reserve resolution will be announced. Whether to raise interest rates in May or not, the Fed's attitude is clear at a glance.

This article is only a record of personal investment thinking and does not constitute any investment advice.

I used to think that stock speculation was to look at the stock price trend, look at the fundamentals and the development of the company's fundamentals, and understand the market situation, but since last year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has gradually deepened my understanding of the macro. Macroeconomic hesitating high-rise buildings, listed companies are just an integral part of this building. The macroeconomic trend will have a huge impact on all units in the whole building. The difference is that different components have different feelings.

The Silicon Valley banking incident in March affected the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to a certain extent, and in order to alleviate the liquidity problem of banks, hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity were invested. Half of the previous efforts were lost in a few days. According to the market expectations at that time, with the intensification of interbank problems, the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates or even start to cut interest rates. But then the interbank problem was quickly solved, and the aftermath of the financial system that we had been looking forward to did not appear (thanks to the timely action of the Federal Reserve and the launch of new tools), which I don't think is over (the stubbornness of short).

On the other hand, it is cpi, which has basically been speculated, and even the market feels a little desensitized, but we still have to admit that some non-cyclical components in cpi are still very tenacious. It didn't even fall but rose. At least at the beginning, our previous good expectations were constantly being broken. The first sharp decline in inflation did not appear, and even secondary inflation expectations began to appear. Moreover, the U.S. economy is very strong. It can be seen that the loan balance begins to rise again after the brief return of the bank liquidity event. The economy is strong, the employment will not be too bad, and the income is guaranteed.

How can the consumption be worse? Under the strong consumption, how can inflation be reduced?

Therefore, for inflation, the rationality of the Federal Reserve's 2% goal is actually debatable. In addition, as the United States gradually wants to get rid of the globalization of rabbits, the rising cost is obvious. If you adhere to such a strategy, is 2% too difficult? After all, before, there was a powerful world factory as Backing, and now I want to get rid of support and low inflation, which is a little bit like that. Secondly, the reasons for the formation of inflation are very complicated, but according to the current strategy of the United States, it is equivalent to cutting off one of the strategies to solve inflation (cheap supply, the United States has maintained low inflation in the past two decades, and the rabbit's large number of cheap consumer goods are indispensable. A consumption is far greater than the supply and he wants Inflation is very unrealistic). So another way to curb inflation now is to use high interest rates to break through employment. It is best to create a depression, and then it can interrupt the positive cycle of inflation, that is, to curb demand. When the demand comes down, the price will come down.

However, the attitude of the Federal Reserve is still relatively poor. In addition to raising interest rates, it is very critical to curbing the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. Judging from the loan data, on the one hand, the increase in loans represents a strong economy, and on the other hand, it can also be explained that many enterprises may not be able to survive, but If you cut the interest rate, then go to the loan to renew your life. Anyway, it will be fine after this year. Loans, consumption and expansion are all hot manifestations of the economy, which to a certain extent represents optimistic expectations for the future. On the contrary, you can ask the people around you, there are a few people who are spending a lot of money now. Are you afraid? This is the power of expectation. In addition to the range of interest rate hikes, the expectation of raising interest rates is also critical. If you have neither the determination to continue to raise interest rates nor the determination to curb inflation, it is estimated Or, times have changed, and 2% is no longer the ideal number.

Therefore, if we continue to raise interest rates and remain hawkish in the new Federal Reserve interest rate resolution, gold is expected to continue to usher in a correction, then there should be a better opportunity to get on the bus. At that time, you can continue to go long at a low price and be optimistic about the price of gold. The most direct thing is to buy spot gold or gold futures or related etf products. This benefit is relatively linear and can directly benefit from the rise of gold. This is the simplest and most direct way to participate. It is best for futures to participate in international gold trading. Hujin is not very good, and it is easy to lose the big market. Or you can participate in the etf products of Hong Kong stocks $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ , 7299 South twice as much gold, can be traded intraday, and the transaction volume is not bad. 

On the contrary, 7374 South doubles shorts gold. With the continuous rise of gold, the fluctuation will definitely increase. You can consider making a band in the day. De-dollarization is still the general trend, and it won't be too bad to buy gold with Yangma.

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