To The Moon

The strategic entry plan in second half of 2023:

Yesterday, US20Y reached the level of more than 3.9% again, and the factors causing the short-term sharp rise in colonial interest rates are nothing more than inflation and the upper limit of U.S. bonds and performance key market indicators like $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  

These two types of problems, as previously evaluated, may have a very short-term impact on interest rates, but have little impact on the overall trend.

Since I have arrived at the advance entry point at present, but with no extra cash, I have considered the financing operation through the broker, which is the cheapest way to get in. 

Under the condition that the annual financing rate of FT is 13% and the recovery deposit is -20% at the headquarters, the daily interest on loan borrowing for every $10,000 is $4. If you enter 8.1 yuan, the expected recovery price will be 6.5 yuan, which will be converted to US20Y=4.5%.

In fact, under the above conditions, financing will be a viable option, which is equivalent to increasing the leverage ratio of U.S. bonds again.

However, after thinking about it, I decided not to do it, but I can share my layout thinking with you, and it should also have some value.

In the following ways, its realization stock can be operated directly, and there is no need to do any financing, so if you want to enter, you can refer to it directly:

1⃣ Under the condition of the last interest rate increase, US20Y was anchored to a range of 3.9%. After the interest rate hike, the interest rate ceiling is almost certain, so the closer it is to 3.9%, the higher the buying rate. It was originally planned to raise 50% after the market this morning. For those who hold cash, they can enter 50% of the planned part.

2⃣However, considering that there are still one and a half trading days before the decision-making meeting, the subsequent decline may cause pressure on emotions. The second way to enter the market is to use the event-based trading method.

Assuming that the daily average price of TMF does not change much and remains around 8.1, it will plan to buy market price stop loss orders in three batches according to the current price before 2 a.m. on 5/4. Assuming that the current price is about 8.1 yuan before 2 a.m. on the same day. It is expected that there will be one order per 1%, with a total of three orders, with prices of 8.18, 8.24 and 8.32 respectively. If the interest rate decision is announced and the market is assured to buy, the transaction can be completed in order and the cost can be controlled at around 8.24.

The second kind of suspension will be a relatively high winning rate. Assuming that there are doubts after the Federal Council, the U.S. debt will be killed, and the probability of three orders will be very low, or it may only be sold to one. You can consider stopping the loss on the day, or readjusting the price of the other two to get a higher winning rate.

Finally, let's talk about the reason why I have decided to cancel after considering the financing operation and designing the strategy.

In fact, with the above plan, I have planned the maximum risk price, the entry part and the script in advance. But the point is that at present, I am 100% of the current shares. Direct financing is equivalent to transferring part of the current shares. If there is an unexpected episode and additional damage is caused, I may not be able to control it.

The matter of imb has been discussed by more and more people. I think the important thing in investment is to control greed. All the ideas and characteristics of imb's deceived people can be used to chase leeks in the market.

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If you are making investment decisions, there is no good way out in advance, you can use funds, you may take risks, and the script that may happen. When an accident occurs, psychological shock will lead to the brain's instinctive escape response, which will cause devastating damage to operational performance.

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Finally, I would like to share my recent views on the interest rate of U.S. bonds.

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Originally, I thought that the U.S. debt ceiling problem would indeed affect the price of U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks within a week. Because the event was expected to occur in September, it was expected that it would not occur until July-August, but I didn't expect it to happen in May in advance. This also proves that you have to think about multiple sets of scripts at any time, but you can't be sure, because the market often advances or delays the order of events.

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The opinion is not important, but the simulation of the script is important.

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Due to the mathematical formula, it is not surprising that the subsequent inflation will slow down or decline. This depends on when the rent will affect Core CPI YOY and how much the proportion will be affected. And whether there is a crisis in commercial real estate loans in the United States, or a decline in the profits of American enterprises.

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The above problems have different effects on the stock market, but they are relatively beneficial to U.S. bonds.

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In terms of investment, it is not to think about the Holy Grail or the practice of winning steadily, but to find the goods with the highest winning rate according to the cycle and market conditions.

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At the same time, determine your own risk preference and think about whether to choose goods with a high winning rate or abandon some goods with a higher winning rate.

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The most important thing is to know the maximum loss before taking action to determine whether you can accept it. When everything is confirmed, just place an order and wait.

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Although I don't buy bonds with any more leverage, I also hope this article can bring you a little value.

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