How exceptional is this HK stocks rally?
It is not surprising that the red disk opened high in my analysis of the trend after the Spring Festival the day before yesterday. It is all because the trend analyzed by the previous editor is the same as my idea. I think the reason for the good post-New Year's trend is that the economy slowed down last year in addition to the strict epidemic prevention policies in China, which also affected the slowdown of Hong Kong's economy at the same time. Hong Kong's economic development needs to rely on domestic economic support, which will also affect the confidence of foreign giants to invest in Hong Kong and the stock market. Therefore, under the influence of both sides, it is impossible for Hong Kong stocks to be alone. In addition, the impact of the Russo-Rusian War last year led to a rapid rise in international fuel prices, causing inflation to rise in global transportation costs. Therefore, the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates many times in a row in order to suppress the forced cut under inflation, trying to increase from 25 basis points to the highest 75 basis points. The Federal Reserve is mainly based on the United States. The country's CPI data measures the extent of the interest rate increase. Inflation climbed to the highest CPI in June 2022 was 9.1% until December 2022 to CPI 6.5%. As well as the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate hikes a few days ago, the main reason is to see the continuous recovery of CPI and the temporary unnecessary interest rate increase, the Federal Reserve will still observe whether the CPI will continue to fall back to 2% before there is room to discuss interest rate cuts.
I think the recovery of Hong Kong stocks is mainly caused by the sharp rise of U.S. stocks caused by the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate increases. The favorable factors of U.S. stocks are also beneficial to Hong Kong stocks. All because some Hong Kong stocks are linked to U.S. stocks. Hong Kong stocks still have a large number of overseas enterprises investing in Hong Kong stocks. Therefore, Hong Kong stocks are supported by foreign capital and will also be affected by the north-south water. Domestically, it has relaxed epidemic prevention measures and customs clearance, and also launched favorable policies for domestic real estate enterprises, education, finance and different industries. It has regained that foreign capital is full of personal expectations for China, causing a large number of foreign investment to buy stocks at a low level and is optimistic about the re-fly-fly of Hong Kong stocks. I think there is still room for Hong Kong stocks to continue to climb, at least to 24,000 to more than 25,000 points, and then observe the trend of Hong Kong stocks. If Hong Kong's economy recovers normally and there are good GDP data, the possibility that the Hang Seng Index will rise below 25,000 points. The most depends on whether Hong Kong's economic data can increase the support of foreign capital. The above is the analysis of the trend that makes the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index stabilize and rising.
For investing in Hong Kong stocks, I think welcoming the God of Wealth is to fully restore all domestic and global economic flows. The stock market will return to the rising channel, and the God of Wealth will continue to appear. I think we still need to pay attention to the trend of Hong Kong stocks with a cautious attitude to avoid losing money caused by overly ignoring the crisis.
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