To The Moon

On February 23, Beijing time, Alibaba released its financial report for the last quarter of 2022. The financial report is eye-catching.

Here is a snapshot of the report:

1. Revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 2% year-on-year to 2,47.756 billion yuan, and net profit was 45.76 billion yuan, an increase of 138% year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease of 22.427 billion yuan in goodwill impairment related to the digital media and entertainment branches.

2. Overseas e-commerce business has recovered. Among them, the growth of Turkish e-commerce Trendyol has led to a 3% year-on-year increase in the overall order volume of international retail business and a 26% year-on-year increase in revenue. Lazada's order growth in Southeast Asia is recovering, achieving a slight year-on-year recovery.

3. Growth expectations are better, because the epidemic has been unblocked, which has given higher expectations for the growth forecast and economic recovery in 2023.

After the release of the financial report, although U.S. stocks rose briefly and rose by more than 5% at its peak, they soon plummeted, plummeting by 3%, and then kept falling. 

With such a good financial report, what are investors afraid of?

1. The competitive environment of e-commerce is becoming more and more popular.

JD.com plans to launch a subsidy campaign of 10 billion yuan (about 1.5 billion US dollars) in early March to officially start a war against Pinduoduo. An internal PPT shows that the launch rhythm of JD.com's 10 billion subsidy is as follows: the bidding system will be launched on February 24, the submission will be opened in an all-round way on February 28, and the goods will be reviewed and launched one after another. In early March, 100% of the front desk cut was officially launched. Does Alibaba follow or not? The profit margin is damaged, and the market share is damaged.

2. The internal and external economic environment is not clear.

After three years of epidemic in China, domestic consumption continues to be weak, and retail sales are the most affected. There are also many uncertainties in foreign markets. Amazon is seated in mature markets. It is difficult to explore emerging markets. There are more international geopolitical risks and other non-economic risks. Even Southeast Asia, which is close to China, is not immune.

3. Other recent risks of Hong Kong stocks.

Recently, the listing rules of technology stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have been revised again, and unprofitable enterprises can also be listed. It is expected that more mainland technology enterprises will be listed in Hong Kong, which will attract more institutions and floating capital. In this case, the stock trading of stock enterprises will be more or less affected.

4. The overall stability of China Concept Stocks has not been restored.

After major events such as epidemic lockdown, double reduction policy, and platform enterprise rectification, there are still doubts about the stability of domestic policies at home and abroad, confidence in the business environment has not been restored, and the overall confidence of private enterprises has not yet recovered. Therefore, the overall performance of Chinese concept stocks is still unstable and volatile. Recently, it seems to be a downward channel in volatility. Of course, this round of adjustment has been large, and it is believed that it will soon stabilize and slowly recover.

5. Uncertainty about Sino-US relations.

At the beginning of the year, Sino-US relations have gradually eased, but after the weather balloon incident some time ago, the relationship was tense again. Every time the relationship is tense, China Concept Stocks will be injured. As the leader of Chinese concept stocks, Alibaba is inevitably injured. Under the background of the continued instability of Sino-US relations, large fluctuations should last for a period of time.

It is difficult for Alibaba to hide Charlie Munger's love for it. Munger also said that he himself predicted the challenges Alibaba may face. How can ordinary people fully predict accurately? But in any case, in the long run, Alibaba should still be a great enterprise that is difficult to replace.

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