Is peaking inflation a good thing? What should you buy?

If you look at the big options orders last night, the bullish time window is very narrow, which basically means these days:On the whole, yesterday's big call is generally biased towards speculation in the short window, although I would not choose to place a long-term order at such a high position.

Yesterday's CPI figure of 7.7% was much lower than expected, clearly inflation has peaked and market shorts are being squeezed.

In theory, it's not just a short squeeze anymore. The CPI figure of 7.7 per cent is a representative figure, representing the phased outcome of the beginning of a peak in inflation. So if you take that logic and look at the previous market, it feels different.

The Dow is way too high right now.

I was wrong about the Dow's rise. If the Dow's previous rally was driven not by dovish FOMC expectations but by expectations of a CPI peak, then the market had already planned this trade a month ago. Then data landing, the market will soon end.

If that's right, we're already at the tail end of the market after the data. By this analogy, the dow is firmly untouchable; Nasdaq, on the other hand, hasn't received much in the way of expected dividends in the past month. One asset that has benefited from news of peaking inflation and slower rate hikes is TLT, which is also a more directional asset than stocks over the long term.

So the buying and selling logic is simple and conservative: Buy Treasury $TLT(TLT)$ if long bond rates fall. We can sell put at this stage.

If that isn't easy enough, follow Musk's lead.

Every time Ma boss sold the stock after the trend is there for all to see. I don't think a bunch of logic works as well as Musk selling stock indicators.$DJIA(.DJI)$

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  • JC888
    ·11-12
    TOP
    As much as I do not wish to see the CPI going up next month, can anyone be really 100% certain that inflation has peaked alrdy? Who really dares vouch that? What if yr posting gets read by a new member and believes 100% what have been written, only to find the price plunges nxt week. Fair for newbie to blame you or unfair?
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    • cuteypie
      yeah
      11-13
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    • Zasper
      K
      11-13
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    • Edrawdet
      good speech
      11-13
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  • maricel
    ·11-12
    TOP
    [Surprised] [Surprised] [Surprised]
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    • eric88Replying tocy8
      yes
      11-13
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    • cy8
      ok
      11-13
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  • Samluo
    ·11-12
    TOP
    Its not peaking. Yet.
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  • Aman33
    ·11-12
    TOP

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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  • Sky Tgr
    ·11-13
    depends whose side r u on...
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  • DT15
    ·11-13
    thank you for sharing
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  • Lynn098
    ·11-13
    $TLT(TLT)$ will this rise with  peaking inflation?
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  • iriscoffee
    ·11-13
    Thks for sharing!
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  • OldCat
    ·11-13
    Thanks for sharing
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  • Thx for sharing
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  • Thanks for the insights...
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  • jethro
    ·11-13
    thanks for the share
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  • KL H
    ·11-13
    Thanks for the article. Nice!
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  • Year end rally 😉
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    • neosh
      👍
      11-13
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  • BB88
    ·11-13

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  • Leklek1981
    ·11-12
    Thanks for sharing
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  • Thanks ALL for sharing。
    Shallow opinion-whatever we read⋯⋯》Stay neutral🔀! Digest it!🔄 Re-analyse🧐📈📉
    ㊗️wish㊗️win㊗️win㊗️win㊗️
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  • x2espresso
    ·11-12
    depend on next mth cpi
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    • yllc
      [Like]
      11-13
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  • Jason1616
    ·11-12
    We need to see a few quarters
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  • An Long
    ·11-12
    [smile] [smile]
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