Interest Hike @Horizon, Debt Limit Crisis Eases?
Weekly Jobless Claims for week ending 20 May 2023
The official weekly jobless claims data has just been released.
It will displease the Fed as they mull over further interest hikes. Why?
Official weekly data is for week ending Sat, 20 May 2023.
Claims filed was 229,000 cases versus economists (polled by FactSet) expecting 248,500 claims.
Falling “short” of expectations by -19,500 claims.
Compared to previous week (225,000), data has come in “stronger” by +4,000 claims.
Overall, continuing claims declined by -5,000 to 1.79 Million versus economists’ expectations of 1.82 Million continuing claims.
If you have to make an educated guess, which data set do you think the Fed would very much like to see as Actuals, in order to arm them ample data-ammunition to halt interest hike?
US - Q1 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Revised data
United States - Revised Q1 2023 GDP
On a separate note, another set of official data has been released as well - US revised Q1 2023 GDP data.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirmed on Thu, 25 May 2023 that GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in Q1 2023.
This is an increased of +0.2% from initial data of 1.1%.
Incidentally, above economists' expectations of 1.1%.
According to BEA, an increase in real GDP reflected increases in:
Consumer spending.
Exports.
Federal govt spending.
State and Local govt spending
Non-residential Fixed investment.
Based on above two official data set, the US economy looks to be in the “pink of health”:
Demand for labour is still robust.
Economy is more than chugging along.
Debt Limit crisis - Light @ the end of the tunnel ?
Coupled with the prospect of the Debt Limit crisis being resolved by 01 Jun 2023
Are there any other excuses that the Fed could leverage, that would Not stop them from hiking the interest rate for an eleventh time in 3 weeks’ time on June, 13-14 when the team convenes for the next FOMC?
Apart from the Personal Consumption Expenses (PCE) that is due to be released later this morning, 26 May 2023 (US time of course!) - I cannot think of anything else.
What about you?
Do you think the US economy is “stable & strong” overall to withstand another interest hike?
Do you think the Fed will halt or continue to hike interest in mid-Jun ?
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The Fed's primary goal is to keep inflation under control. If inflation continues to rise, the Fed may feel compelled to continue hiking interest rates.
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The Fed will likely make its decision about interest rates in mid-June. However, the decision could be influenced by events that occur between now and then.
The US economy is still growing, but it is growing at a slower pace than it was before the pandemic.
It is too early to say whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand another interest hike.