The most closely watched development in the market over the weekend was undoubtedly the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Based on comprehensive reports, while there has been some engagement, the core issues remain fundamentally unresolved. It has now been a full month since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, and crude oil inventories in Gulf nations are perilously close to reaching maximum capacity. If the U.S. and Iran fail to reach a viable agreement to guarantee safe passage through the strait within this two-week ceasefire window, the market is likely to further fuel long-term inflation fears. However, this turbulent environment is exactly what creates exceptional trading opportunities in the forward contracts of various commodities.

The most closely watched development in the market over the weekend was undoubtedly the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Based on comprehensive reports, while there has been some engagement, the core issues remain fundamentally unresolved. It has now been a full month since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, and crude oil inventories in Gulf nations are perilously close to reaching maximum capacity. If the U.S. and Iran fail to reach a viable agreement to guarantee safe passage through the strait within this two-week ceasefire window, the market is likely to further fuel long-term inflation fears. However, this turbulent environment is exactly what creates exceptional trading opportunities in the forward contracts of various commodities.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is ripping right through that smart money zone. In the article I said I didn’t trust this move and was cautious, but I also said we weren’t buying puts. The fund stayed fully long. We stuck to the system. Monthly BX is increasing again. That is constructive, but we need to wait until the end of April to confirm the next 6–12 month bull cycle. This is why we follow the plan and keep trading long, even while staying objective about potential sell offs. We didn’t short. We didn’t overreact. Now we are being rewarded for that discipline. I’m hoping this was the bottom, but hope is not a plan. We will see how the month closes.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Seasonality (Since 1928) 1) January: +1.1% — Often strong from the “January Effect” as capital gets redeployed, though variability is high. 2) February: +0.3% — Moderately positive, but typically softer than January. 3) March: +0.8% — Generally constructive as Q1 wraps up. 4) April: +1.4% — One of the strongest months, supported by optimism and tax-related flows. 5) May: -0.1% — Marks the “Sell in May” period; returns tend to flatten with higher volatility. 6) June: -0.2% — Historically weaker with lower volumes and early summer slowdown. 7) July: +1.3% — Strong, often driven by earnings season tailwinds. 8) August: -0.1% — Volatile and inconsistent, with frequent drawdowns. 9) September: -0.7% — Statistically the