To The Moon

[Focus or Rebalance?] Recently during the bull run I have been reading and thinking hard about this topic as some of my investments have grown to occupy a >20% stake of my portfolio. Rebalancing is the way[Happy]   One of the people I learn from Mr Loo from 1M65 does rebalancing. Basically the concept is to sell your overweighted position, for example in stocks, and move into bonds. This strategy has its benefits. Firstly you get to take profit from your growing investments. Secondly, you get to rotate into another position that could benefit from a reversal. Lastly, a balanced portfolio with regular rebalancing can grow consistently. Focus is the way.[Cool]   Another person that I watch and learn from is Adam Khoo. He allocates a fixed percent of his portfolio initi

With the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls rise to 199k which exceeded the market expectations on 8 Dec 2023, what I see here is a very strong and robust labour market. With the unemployment rate falling to 3.7% which was an improvement in the labour market vs the previous month and analyst expectations. The U.S. economy is not in bad shape, and way better than what most of us had expected. With the higher payrolls and low unemployment rates, this would FED strong indications that the US economy is strong and should be able to absorb the effect of the higher interest rate hike to curb inflation with a clear goal of 2% in making, I would expect the market to be highly volatile, especially on the bets on when will FED start cutting interest rates. The current valuations of US stocks are

When a new investor starts his journey in picking stocks, very often no thought process is given to the economic moat or management quality of the company. What is economic moat? An economic moat is a concept popularized by Warren Buffett, describing a company's sustainable competitive advantage that allows it to maintain its market position and fend off competition. Similar to a castle's moat protecting it from invaders, an economic moat protects a company from competitors trying to erode its profits and market share. There are several types of economic moats that can contribute to a company's competitive advantage: Cost Advantage: When a company can produce goods or services at a lower cost compared to its competitors. This could be due to proprietary technology, efficient processes, ac

Note to self. This is not a demo account. Played with fire and got burnt 🥵🔥. This is a stark reminder how manipulated the stock market really is. Good earnings call, bad earnings call; when the tide sinks, it takes all the boats along with it.

  Some investors now find long-term bonds appealing. If the Federal Reserve does indeed cut interest rates next year, bond prices would experience an upswing, and longer-duration bonds would benefit more. Even in the case of delayed rate cuts, some find the bond yields of over 5% an attractive  Nonetheless, it's improbable that interest rates will approach zero again, given the prevailing geopolitical tensions that impact supply chains and trade, rendering the past era of cheap Chinese imports unsustainable. Increased trade restrictions and conflicts disrupt commodity supplies and elevate prices, making ultra-loose monetary policy unlikely in the near future as inflation may prove to be stubborn. Even if long-term bond prices do rise, they are unlikely to regain their previous pe

  Some investors now find long-term bonds appealing. If the Federal Reserve does indeed cut interest rates next year, bond prices would experience an upswing, and longer-duration bonds would benefit more. Even in the case of delayed rate cuts, some find the bond yields of over 5% an attractive  Nonetheless, it's improbable that interest rates will approach zero again, given the prevailing geopolitical tensions that impact supply chains and trade, rendering the past era of cheap Chinese imports unsustainable. Increased trade restrictions and conflicts disrupt commodity supplies and elevate prices, making ultra-loose monetary policy unlikely in the near future as inflation may prove to be stubborn. Even if long-term bond prices do rise, they are unlikely to regain their previous pe

As the year is coming to an end, I would like to know what has the market taught you this year? 

The Market is influenced and controlled by the elite few. I'm not shocked or surprised but aware and opportunistic.. "when the shit goes down ya be better get ready" [Silence]  [Blush]  

Markets are down again, chiefly due to FOMC's latest stance on rates. We have been through this plentiful times. What has the market taught us since the rate cycle turned 2 years ago? Markets tanked due to expectations of rate hikes and rebounded whenever there were indications of a pause, and some of the rebounds were mind-boggling. This happened several times in the past 2 years.  So what is clear is that markets love to go up than come down. What is also clear is that we are definitely at the upper spectrum of the rates cycle, albeit there would be occasional upticks in inflation and economic strength which would stoke the feeling that there would be maybe just one more rate hike, and the selling starts again.  Should I sell or buy the dip?  I am firml

Not too long ago, I am fully vested in stocks with little to no cash position. When the market is bullish, It's great. However, whenever the market is bearish I'll be groaning over the losses.  Learning to maintain a cash position of about 10% has always been taught to me and I've always ignored and feel the pain when the market turned bearish. To give an analogy is to liken investing to driving. Having a cash position is like having a reverse gear, if one can only drive forward in hope of a bull market, when the market retreats we find ourselves with no further alternatives to manuover. Having a cash position allows one to further exploit the low prices to buy in.  What do you think? 

Stepping into the world of trading feels like embarking on a thrilling yet bewildering adventure. It's a fusion of deciphering complex technicalities, taming unruly emotions, and cultivating the art of patience. As a fellow newcomer to the trading realm, I vividly remember the struggle of finding that initial foothold and deciphering what truly matters. In this article, I hope to distill some of my reflections to a few points to constantly remind myself to stay the course and hopefully continue to persevere. Likewise, I hope it will serve you well too. [Grin]  This is a heartfelt sharing of the four priceless pieces of wisdom I deeply craved before I set forth on my trading escapade. Tip 1: Small is big: Start with smaller bets first When I kicked off my trading, I stumbled upon

Mastering the Art of Trading Trading in the financial markets is a dynamic and intricate endeavor, requiring a solid foundation of knowledge, disciplined strategies, and emotional resilience. Successful traders, regardless of their trading style, share common habits and principles that contribute to their achievements. Whether you're just starting on your trading journey or looking to refine your skills, here are 16 indispensable tips that can help you navigate the complexities of trading and increase your chances of success. TigerOptions 1. Education First Before you dive headfirst into trading, invest time in understanding the fundamentals of the market, different trading strategies, and the financial instruments you're interested in. A strong educational foundation provides you with the

Finding undervalued stocks involves analyzing various financial metrics and market trends. Here are some of the methods I learned: Use valuation ratios: Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio), price-to-book ratio (P/B ratio), and dividend yield are some of the most popular valuation ratios used to determine if a stock is undervalued. A low P/E ratio, for example, could indicate that a stock is undervalued. However, it's important to use these ratios in conjunction with other factors, such as the company's financial health and growth prospects, to make an informed decision. Fundamental Analysis: Evaluate a company’s financial statements, such as its earnings, revenue, and cash flow. Look for companies with strong financials that are trading at lower prices compared to their intrinsic value. De

Learning from Metaverse Hype In the fast-paced world of investing, there are moments when admitting you're wrong can be just as important as making the right choices. I recently made a decision to sell my $Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ stock before it crashed, a move inspired by both the allure of the metaverse and the philosophy of acknowledging mistakes. Here's a reflection on why I initially bought into the metaverse hype and why I ultimately chose to exit. [Sad]  Martin Zweig: “It’s OK to be wrong; it’s unforgivable to stay wrong.” The Temptation of the Metaverse When news of the metaverse trend started gaining traction, it was hard to resist the excitement. Roblox, with its unique blend of gaming and user-generated content, seemed like a

I have been a trader for almost 2 years now, having started in Jan 2022. I choose my terms carefully because I would like to grow as an investor, holding stocks long term. As it stands, I sell too early and buy too soon, a key mistake which I still make. This has been a painful lesson which I am trying to learn from. My losses have been reduced, having ballooned from April 22 last year to $6000, then to $8000 in Oct 22. As I held on longer, it was reduced to $2200. Not learning from my lessons, I made the same mistakes again and once again, inflated my losses. I would like to share these learning moments as of today with you. Hopefully, you will benefit from them. I will use 2 of my favourite stocks as sharing. A key lesson I've learnt is understanding that the market is sentimental and n

Late on Tuesday in the after hours, ratings agency Fitch downgraded the US government's top credit rating to AA+ from AAA, citing an expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years as well as a high and growing general government debt burden. This comes two months after Democratic President Joe Biden and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives reached a debt ceiling agreement to lift the government's US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling. US treasuries are down As of this morning 9am (Singapore time), the US 2 year has ticked down to 4.88% from Monday's high of 4.91%, while the US 10 year is now at 4.01%, down from yesterday's high of 4.05%. E-mini S&P Futures The futures market is down by 0.31% but has made a green candle so far. Is this a correction move? Could this be th

Recent meme stock AMC ($AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ ) had made some good moves on Monday on "Barbenheimer" over the weekend. Two blockbuster films had a good weekend, with raking in $155 million in the US & Canada and Oppenheimer bring in $80.5 million in the US, which lead to the fourth-biggest ever weekend in the US.  And of course the stock made a 40% up move, taking out the previous May swing high of $6.11. If you were able to read patterns, you would clearly know is a bull trap, which is a manipulation tactic to trap retail investors.  Bull trap on AMC last week Subsequently, the down has fallen 25% over the next 4 trading days.  When retail buys, the market maker is selling When a stock price is moving up, the market

Warren Buffett’s famous advice “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1” emphasizes the importance of protecting your capital when investing in the stock market. It's based on the idea that it's much harder to make money back after you've lost it than it is to simply never lose it in the first place. There are a few reasons why this is the case. First, the stock market is volatile, and prices can go down as well as up. If you buy a stock at a high price and then the price goes down, you'll need the price to go up even more just to break even. Second, even if the stock market does go up overall, there's no guarantee that any individual stock will go up. In fact, many stocks go down over time. So if you buy a stock that goes down, you're not just losing out on the p

AMC never fails to help me earn $$$$ Cannot be Greedy....earn a bit good enough. Can always buy back when the price drops  again :))

It's important to understand that market swings are a normal part of the stock market's functioning, and investors like me should be prepared for risk and opportunities from big market swings. Here are some of the reasons for Big swings to keep in our consideration: 1. Economic Data and Indicators: Major economic reports such as GDP growth, employment data, inflation rates, and consumer confidence can significantly impact investor sentiment and lead to market swing 2. Corporate Earnings Reports: Companies' quarterly earnings reports often trigger significant market movements. Positive earnings surprises can boost stock prices, while negative surprises can lead to sharp declines. 3. Geopolitical Events: Political instability, international conflicts, trade tensions, and geopo

[Focus or Rebalance?] Recently during the bull run I have been reading and thinking hard about this topic as some of my investments have grown to occupy a >20% stake of my portfolio. Rebalancing is the way[Happy]   One of the people I learn from Mr Loo from 1M65 does rebalancing. Basically the concept is to sell your overweighted position, for example in stocks, and move into bonds. This strategy has its benefits. Firstly you get to take profit from your growing investments. Secondly, you get to rotate into another position that could benefit from a reversal. Lastly, a balanced portfolio with regular rebalancing can grow consistently. Focus is the way.[Cool]   Another person that I watch and learn from is Adam Khoo. He allocates a fixed percent of his portfolio initi

When a new investor starts his journey in picking stocks, very often no thought process is given to the economic moat or management quality of the company. What is economic moat? An economic moat is a concept popularized by Warren Buffett, describing a company's sustainable competitive advantage that allows it to maintain its market position and fend off competition. Similar to a castle's moat protecting it from invaders, an economic moat protects a company from competitors trying to erode its profits and market share. There are several types of economic moats that can contribute to a company's competitive advantage: Cost Advantage: When a company can produce goods or services at a lower cost compared to its competitors. This could be due to proprietary technology, efficient processes, ac

With the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls rise to 199k which exceeded the market expectations on 8 Dec 2023, what I see here is a very strong and robust labour market. With the unemployment rate falling to 3.7% which was an improvement in the labour market vs the previous month and analyst expectations. The U.S. economy is not in bad shape, and way better than what most of us had expected. With the higher payrolls and low unemployment rates, this would FED strong indications that the US economy is strong and should be able to absorb the effect of the higher interest rate hike to curb inflation with a clear goal of 2% in making, I would expect the market to be highly volatile, especially on the bets on when will FED start cutting interest rates. The current valuations of US stocks are

  Some investors now find long-term bonds appealing. If the Federal Reserve does indeed cut interest rates next year, bond prices would experience an upswing, and longer-duration bonds would benefit more. Even in the case of delayed rate cuts, some find the bond yields of over 5% an attractive  Nonetheless, it's improbable that interest rates will approach zero again, given the prevailing geopolitical tensions that impact supply chains and trade, rendering the past era of cheap Chinese imports unsustainable. Increased trade restrictions and conflicts disrupt commodity supplies and elevate prices, making ultra-loose monetary policy unlikely in the near future as inflation may prove to be stubborn. Even if long-term bond prices do rise, they are unlikely to regain their previous pe

  Some investors now find long-term bonds appealing. If the Federal Reserve does indeed cut interest rates next year, bond prices would experience an upswing, and longer-duration bonds would benefit more. Even in the case of delayed rate cuts, some find the bond yields of over 5% an attractive  Nonetheless, it's improbable that interest rates will approach zero again, given the prevailing geopolitical tensions that impact supply chains and trade, rendering the past era of cheap Chinese imports unsustainable. Increased trade restrictions and conflicts disrupt commodity supplies and elevate prices, making ultra-loose monetary policy unlikely in the near future as inflation may prove to be stubborn. Even if long-term bond prices do rise, they are unlikely to regain their previous pe

Note to self. This is not a demo account. Played with fire and got burnt 🥵🔥. This is a stark reminder how manipulated the stock market really is. Good earnings call, bad earnings call; when the tide sinks, it takes all the boats along with it.

Stepping into the world of trading feels like embarking on a thrilling yet bewildering adventure. It's a fusion of deciphering complex technicalities, taming unruly emotions, and cultivating the art of patience. As a fellow newcomer to the trading realm, I vividly remember the struggle of finding that initial foothold and deciphering what truly matters. In this article, I hope to distill some of my reflections to a few points to constantly remind myself to stay the course and hopefully continue to persevere. Likewise, I hope it will serve you well too. [Grin]  This is a heartfelt sharing of the four priceless pieces of wisdom I deeply craved before I set forth on my trading escapade. Tip 1: Small is big: Start with smaller bets first When I kicked off my trading, I stumbled upon

Mastering the Art of Trading Trading in the financial markets is a dynamic and intricate endeavor, requiring a solid foundation of knowledge, disciplined strategies, and emotional resilience. Successful traders, regardless of their trading style, share common habits and principles that contribute to their achievements. Whether you're just starting on your trading journey or looking to refine your skills, here are 16 indispensable tips that can help you navigate the complexities of trading and increase your chances of success. TigerOptions 1. Education First Before you dive headfirst into trading, invest time in understanding the fundamentals of the market, different trading strategies, and the financial instruments you're interested in. A strong educational foundation provides you with the

As the year is coming to an end, I would like to know what has the market taught you this year? 

Learning from Metaverse Hype In the fast-paced world of investing, there are moments when admitting you're wrong can be just as important as making the right choices. I recently made a decision to sell my $Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ stock before it crashed, a move inspired by both the allure of the metaverse and the philosophy of acknowledging mistakes. Here's a reflection on why I initially bought into the metaverse hype and why I ultimately chose to exit. [Sad]  Martin Zweig: “It’s OK to be wrong; it’s unforgivable to stay wrong.” The Temptation of the Metaverse When news of the metaverse trend started gaining traction, it was hard to resist the excitement. Roblox, with its unique blend of gaming and user-generated content, seemed like a

Markets are down again, chiefly due to FOMC's latest stance on rates. We have been through this plentiful times. What has the market taught us since the rate cycle turned 2 years ago? Markets tanked due to expectations of rate hikes and rebounded whenever there were indications of a pause, and some of the rebounds were mind-boggling. This happened several times in the past 2 years.  So what is clear is that markets love to go up than come down. What is also clear is that we are definitely at the upper spectrum of the rates cycle, albeit there would be occasional upticks in inflation and economic strength which would stoke the feeling that there would be maybe just one more rate hike, and the selling starts again.  Should I sell or buy the dip?  I am firml

The Market is influenced and controlled by the elite few. I'm not shocked or surprised but aware and opportunistic.. "when the shit goes down ya be better get ready" [Silence]  [Blush]  

Today let's take a look at a few reasons why investors lose money in the stock market. With the S&P 500 up 15.0% year-to-date, & the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite up 31.5% year-to-date, I hope most of you reading this are seeing more greens in your portfolio than reds. Failing to understand the fair value of the business They fail to understand what the value of the business is. Often times, investors do not know how to value calculate the intrinsic value or fair value of a stock. There are several methods of arriving at a fair value of a stock. Hence they are cautious as to wether they should buy a stock that has been sold off by the market, and hence appeared unloved. Instead they look for stocks that have risen and then decide that now the stock that they were considering is now l

— Or just picking you up in reverse? After reaching its peak with an opening stock price of $351 on June 16th, the stock price of the tech giant $Microsoft(MSFT)$ started to decline and by the close on June 26th, it had fallen back to the levels of late May. Other tech giants have also experienced varying degrees of retracement recently, and $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , the strongest chip stock due to increased demand for AI, has experienced its largest drop in a month. Is AI cooling down?As for ChatGPT, according to SimilarWeb data, the growth in ChatGPT's traffic has noticeably slowed down recently, with a continuous decline in month-on-month comparison due to a larger base. Unless there are unexpected develop

As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe

Finding undervalued stocks involves analyzing various financial metrics and market trends. Here are some of the methods I learned: Use valuation ratios: Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio), price-to-book ratio (P/B ratio), and dividend yield are some of the most popular valuation ratios used to determine if a stock is undervalued. A low P/E ratio, for example, could indicate that a stock is undervalued. However, it's important to use these ratios in conjunction with other factors, such as the company's financial health and growth prospects, to make an informed decision. Fundamental Analysis: Evaluate a company’s financial statements, such as its earnings, revenue, and cash flow. Look for companies with strong financials that are trading at lower prices compared to their intrinsic value. De

Not too long ago, I am fully vested in stocks with little to no cash position. When the market is bullish, It's great. However, whenever the market is bearish I'll be groaning over the losses.  Learning to maintain a cash position of about 10% has always been taught to me and I've always ignored and feel the pain when the market turned bearish. To give an analogy is to liken investing to driving. Having a cash position is like having a reverse gear, if one can only drive forward in hope of a bull market, when the market retreats we find ourselves with no further alternatives to manuover. Having a cash position allows one to further exploit the low prices to buy in.  What do you think? 

I have been a trader for almost 2 years now, having started in Jan 2022. I choose my terms carefully because I would like to grow as an investor, holding stocks long term. As it stands, I sell too early and buy too soon, a key mistake which I still make. This has been a painful lesson which I am trying to learn from. My losses have been reduced, having ballooned from April 22 last year to $6000, then to $8000 in Oct 22. As I held on longer, it was reduced to $2200. Not learning from my lessons, I made the same mistakes again and once again, inflated my losses. I would like to share these learning moments as of today with you. Hopefully, you will benefit from them. I will use 2 of my favourite stocks as sharing. A key lesson I've learnt is understanding that the market is sentimental and n

Late on Tuesday in the after hours, ratings agency Fitch downgraded the US government's top credit rating to AA+ from AAA, citing an expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years as well as a high and growing general government debt burden. This comes two months after Democratic President Joe Biden and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives reached a debt ceiling agreement to lift the government's US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling. US treasuries are down As of this morning 9am (Singapore time), the US 2 year has ticked down to 4.88% from Monday's high of 4.91%, while the US 10 year is now at 4.01%, down from yesterday's high of 4.05%. E-mini S&P Futures The futures market is down by 0.31% but has made a green candle so far. Is this a correction move? Could this be th

I always thought that stop losses are useless. Whenever I see price taps me out, and go in my direction. Whenever price comes close to my stop loss, the spread will somehow widen and take me out, and go in my direction. I was always angry about this. "The broker must be trading against me! I must hide my stop loss!" I stop using stop losses. For some trades, I won because price couldn't tap me out and go in my direction. I thought I was a genius by not trading with a stop loss. I became confident. This worked until it didn't work. It was NFP. It's 10 seconds away from news release. I was trading a $1,000 account. My trade was in $8 drawdown. I looked at the chart, knowing that I will close the trade if it goes against me. The price became very volatile. 5...4...3...2...1... Nothing happene