Last night, former President Donald Trump made a statement indicating plans to include multiple cryptocurrencies as part of the reserve system. This announcement sparked a surge in the cryptocurrency market.
However, despite the short-term boost, we believe the broader market trend will remain unaffected by such political moves. After the initial excitement subsides, the market is likely to return to its original rhythm and structure.
Recent Trading Opportunities and Market Movements
For some time, we have been positioning ourselves to capitalize on the buying opportunity around the 85,000-86,000 range. Following entry, prices unexpectedly dipped further, with last week’s price bottoming out at approximately 78,000. However, Friday's significant lower shadow and the support at the previous gap level confirmed that the correction reached its conclusion.
Without further news-driven impacts, the main theme would be a slow but steady recovery in price. A sharp gap in the futures market, as seen recently, is unlikely under regular market conditions.
Current Market Structure and Price Forecast
Looking at the current price structure, the market is in an adjustment cycle, likely taking on a platform-like pattern. This indicates that while the rebound has been strong, the prices will likely retest lower levels once the upward movement peaks. Given the complexity and duration of adjustment cycles, a long-term strategy and flexible entry plans are necessary.
From a price perspective, the next challenge lies at 97,500, followed by levels around 102,000. Personally, I am skeptical that this cycle will result in a new high (though if proven wrong, a right-side momentum strategy could be considered).
Thus, reaching these levels would prompt me to gradually close out long positions and await the next buying opportunity. The long-term target of 120,000+ remains valid, but considering time costs, an immediate surge to this level seems unlikely.
Ideally, after reaching a peak this month, the price might retreat below 80,000 to test the strength of the support. Once this support is reconfirmed, a genuine upward trend could begin. It’s worth noting that this process might involve one, two, or even three cycles, comparable to the market movements observed between March and September of last year.
Perspective on Other Cryptocurrencies
Turning to other cryptocurrencies under the Trump framework, we generally view assets other than BTC (Bitcoin) as not worth holding or buying.
Although some alternatives might exhibit greater short-term volatility or rebound strength, their long-term prospects are relatively weak. Comparing gold and silver’s performance gives insight: when long-term capital favors certainty, secondary assets often play mere supporting roles. This is especially true in downtrends, where these secondary assets tend to lack resilience.
Given the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, BTC remains the only solid choice. Other assets, such as ETH (Ethereum), may serve as potential hedging tools if their prices become favorable, but they lack reliability for long-term investments.
Risk Warning for the Cryptocurrency Market
Finally, it is necessary to remind all participants that the cryptocurrency market inherently possesses greater volatility compared to traditional financial markets. Whether trading or investing, risk management should be prioritized. For those unfamiliar with or lacking an in-depth understanding of the market, it is advisable to avoid rash decisions entirely.
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