Last year, to avoid a U.S. government debt default, Congress approved a temporary funding bill extending federal government funding until March 14, 2025. With this deadline approaching next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a new temporary funding measure lasting until September 30. This bill is scheduled for a vote next Tuesday. Although the probability of outright rejection is relatively low, uncertainties remain. Political maneuvering by a minority of lawmakers and possible delays from the Democratic Party could complicate or prolong the bill's passage, thereby negatively impacting market sentiment.
U.S. Stocks: Approaching Interim Lows—Short-Term Rebound Possible
After significant declines last week, major U.S. indices—led by the S&P 500—have dropped around 8%, nearing a statistical correction level of approximately 10%. Should additional negative news emerge next week, the indices may test lower levels before staging a short-term rebound.
However, investors must clearly recognize that a short-term rebound does not equate to a market reversal. Any rally would likely encounter resistance near the 20-week moving average—around the critical 6000-point level. Investors are advised to be mindful of trade timing and market fluctuations.
Although factors such as tariff negotiations and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to sway short-term market sentiment, their effects tend to dissipate swiftly. Traders should avoid excessively reacting to such temporary news events. Typically, rebounds from lower levels occur rapidly, offering opportunities for short-term speculation. Traders could consider closely watching this potential rebound scenario in the coming weeks.
Precious Metals Maintain Strength: Awaiting Clearer Direction
Gold prices recently saw significant fluctuations at elevated levels. Nevertheless, the overall market remains robust, with prices still comfortably above the 20-week moving average. Thus, the general bullish trend continues to dominate, making short-selling or aggressive short positions inadvisable at present.
Indeed, provided gold prices do not accelerate significantly, short-selling remains challenging. Currently, technical indicators do not signal decisive direction changes. Silver prices display slightly greater volatility by comparison, yet the overall market trend remains fundamentally unchanged. Investors should maintain a cautious approach, patiently monitoring precious metals' overall performance and waiting for clearer market signals before making strategic investment decisions.
Watch Closely: Potential Volatility in U.S. Crude Oil Market
Following an extended period of intense volatility, crude oil markets have entered a critical observation stage. Over the past two years, oil prices have oscillated within a price range of $65 to $75 per barrel, supported by moves from OPEC+ and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, since Trump's inauguration, oil prices have experienced persistent downward pressure, recently approaching the lower boundary of around $65 per barrel.
An important yet seemingly understated news development has emerged: Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to act as intermediary in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Iran, a major global oil producer, currently faces substantial sanctions restricting its oil exports to international markets. Though negotiations will likely prove challenging, if U.S.-Iran relations ease and sanctions are relaxed, significantly increased Iranian oil supply could exert substantial downward pressure on crude oil markets. Such developments could trigger severe price declines. Investors must closely monitor oil market dynamics and developments in geopolitical negotiations, as these factors may rapidly influence market conditions.
Putin Agrees to Mediate U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks
According to reports from China National Radio (CNR) on March 5, 2025, Russian President Putin has officially consented to serve as an intermediary in nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran. This development could significantly affect crude oil supply dynamics, depending on its outcomes. Therefore, close and ongoing attention is essential.
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