Why Oil Fell Despite War? $WTI Crude Oil - main 2406(CLmain)$ Which market is a better hedge when a geopolitical conflict started. I know many will say that it must be crude oil. Over the past 2 major conflicts, we could see that crude oil did not gain any momentum, in fact it came off. So which markets have reacted positively to all these tensions so far, and will continue to remain this way with future tensions?Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://www.facebook.com/Weipedia/?ref=page_internal

Inflation has dipped to its lowest point in two-and-a-half years, with unemployment holding steady below 4 percent for the longest time since the 1960s. Despite these positive economic indicators and the US economy defying recession predictions, a majority of Americans maintain a bleak economic outlook.“Most Americans," "are not just looking for disinflation”- a slowdown in price increases. “They’re looking for deflation. They want these prices to be back where they were before the pandemic. ... I hear that from my family.” - Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve's Board of GovernorsThat's particularly true for some of the goods and services that Americans pay for most frequently: Bread, beef and other groceries, apartment rents and utilities. Every week or month, consumers are remind

It is a 26-page transcript, and I have highlighted some of his key statements.Question:The rise in long-term bond yields, to what degree is that the planned action by the Fed at this meeting?Reply:As for the Committee, we are committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time. And we're not confident yet that we have achieved such a stance.As I mentioned, persistent changes in broader financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy. In this case, the tighter financial conditions we're seeing from higher long-term rates but also from other sources like the stronger dollar and lower equity prices could matter for future rate decisions, as long as two conditions are satisfied.The first is

It is a 27-page transcript taken on 20th September, and I have highlighted some of his key statements.On Energy Price: "Energy prices are very important for the consumer. This can affect consumer spending. It certainly can affect consumer sentiment. I mean, gas prices are one of the big things that affects consumer sentiment. It really comes down to how persistent, how sustained these energy prices are. The reason why we look at core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is that energy goes up and down like that. And energy prices mostly don't contain much of a signal about how tight the economy is, and hence don't tell you much about where inflation is really going. However, we're well aware, though, that, you know, if energy prices increase and stay high, that will have an effect on

4 issues that Michael Burry and Warren Buffett seeing that we aren’t1. China’s economic meltdown:Traders worry that weakness in the world’s second largest economy could affect the global outlook. China’s consumer spending, factory production and investment in fixed assets all slowed further in July from a year ago.2. Russia and Ukraine’s impact on inflation:Heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.3. US economy is slowing down:US economy is still showing signs of a slowdown. Shoppers have tightened their purse strings in the face of higher prices and borrowing costs, focusing on paying for necessitie

Key Facts on BRICS Summit in 2023BRICS, an emerging market group that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, represents approximately 40 percent of the global population and accounts for about 26 percent of the global economy. It will hold its 15th annual gathering, the BRICS 2023 summit, from August 22 to 24.Some key facts about the summit:• This will mark the first in-person BRICS summit since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.• According to the government of South Africa, more than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS. So far, over 20 countries have formally applied to become new BRICS members, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Indonesia, Egypt and Ethiopia.• To establish an international power system commensurate with the

The Fed balance sheet shrinks by $1tn and aims to cut another $1.5tn from its balance sheet by mid-2025.During the initial phases of the Covid-19 pandemic, the central bank of the United States engaged in the purchase of trillions of dollars worth of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. The aim was to provide stability to the financial system. However, since after the second half of 2022, the central bank adopted a strategy of allowing its holdings to naturally mature without initiating replacements.“Quantitative tightening” or “Fed shrinking the balance sheet” refers to the same thing. It is a process where the Fed takes steps to reduce the amount of assets it holds on its balance sheet, effectively decreasing the money supply in the economy.Its impact:• Interest Rates:One of

Singapore said on Friday, 11 August that the country’s gross domestic product for this year is now expected to come in between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent, narrowing from the previous 0.5 to 2.5 per cent range.One key indicator of Singapore's economic health is its export performance. When Singapore's exports decline, it can be seen as a broader global economic contraction. Singapore plays a vital role in global trade as it is strategic location at the crossroads of major shipping routes, coupled with its well-developed ports.Singapore's exports are a mirror reflecting the overall state of the global economy. The city's export portfolio encompasses a wide range of products, including electronics, chemicals, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. When demand for these goods declines, it is often indicativ

Why rating agency downgraded America now?• A broken US political system and• The nation physical planOn 02 August, Fitch Ratings cut its US debt rating from AAA to AA+, citing a steady deterioration in standards of governance. The rating agency has also downgraded mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie from AAA to AA+, expecting other insurance group should be affected as well.Fitch decided to remove America’s perfect credit rating, expressed concern about large and growing fiscal deficits and the mounting cost to finance US debt as interest rates rise, and is defending its controversial decision to downgrade the US credit rating by pointing to the nation’s mountain of debt.“The numbers speak for themselves,” Richard Francis, the lead analyst on US sovereign ratings at Fitch, told CNN. America

As an investor, one of the most important conferences or seminars we should attend is the press conference after each FOMC meeting. The reporters will have their translation, but I prefer to hear from Jerome Powell himself, as it provides information on what the Fed is thinking.It is a 28-page transcript taken on 27th July, and I have highlighted some of his key statements.• Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months… Nonetheless, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go,• "We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks."• the overall resilience of the economy,

US markets' soft landing is looking brighter.After months of uncertainty about the economy's health and banking stress, Jerome Powell offered an important update regarding the Fed's economic projections.The Fed stated that, at least for now, officials aren't incredibly worried about what recent data has revealed about the economy and the possibility of a recession.The rest of the numbers seem alright, except for PCE:In the Fed's opinion, PCE is still dicey. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is generally considered a more sensitive indicator for tracking inflation compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While CPI focuses on a fixed basket of goods and services commonly consumed by urban households, providing a snapshot of price changes for specific items, PCE is a broade

4 reasons countries to break away the dollar1. US monetary policies2. The strong USD3. Structural shift in the global oil trade4. Russian sanctions fuel alternative trade currenciesUS monetary policies –The US holds significant influence over the global economy due to its role as the issuer of the world's reserve currency, giving it dominance in international trade and payment systems. This has led to what's been termed an "exorbitant privilege," allowing the US to potentially avoid debt crises by simply creating more money. However, this also means that other countries must closely monitor and adapt to US economic and monetary policies to protect their own economies.The strong USD –The strengthening US dollar is making imports costlier for emerging nations. Argentina has responded to this

The last 50 years, we have seen gold, commodities, and inflation numbers move in cycles and in tandem together.Though gold has picked up in recent years, make no mistake, the cycle between them is still intact.If gold is leading the way, the rest should catch up subsequently.Gold will likely remain high because of the easy money policy over the decades or the creation of off-balance debt. $Gold - main 2308(GCmain)$ $Gold - Aug 2023(GC2308)$ $E-Micro Gold - Aug 2023(MGC2308)$ $Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund(DBC)$ Based on past cycle performance, commodities may come into alignment with gold, meaning

AI investment – A boom or hype?Money is thrown at companies that have neither earnings nor an innovative product nor the right expertise. For example, French startup Mistral AI didn’t have a working product when it raised €105 million ($118 million) in one of Europe’s largest-ever seed rounds last month. Some investors and people in the industry are worried the funding frenzy is turning into a bubble.The realisation of AI potential -The release of ChatGPT to the public in November was the catalyst for the current buzz, since then there is an increasing number of founders mention generative AI in their pitches for funding. The release of ChatGPT, combined with Microsoft’s blockbuster investment in OpenAI, caused “generalist investors to suddenly wake up” to AI’s extraordinary potential. It

What is Black Sea grain deal and why it collapses?The Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports, also called the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was an agreement among Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia was weaponizing food supplies.To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul

Why did the Fed prefer PCE over CPI as an inflation benchmark?Although inflation has fallen to its lowest level, the Fed appears to have already planned for another rate hike at its upcoming meeting on July 25-26.“There is no doubt that the good news on inflation is good news indeed, it’s really too early to declare victory on inflation.” San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank PresidentPersonal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index covers a broader range of goods and services compared to the CPI.It includes personal consumption expenditures by households, businesses, and the government. This comprehensive coverage provides a more comprehensive view of overall economic activity and inflationary pressures.The CPI uses fixed expenditure weights, which assumes that consumer spending patterns

1. Import prices:A weaker USD makes imports more expensive. When the value of the US dollar decreases, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of goods or services from other countries. As a result, the prices of imported goods and raw materials increase. This increase in import prices can contribute to inflation because businesses may pass on the higher costs to consumers.2. Cost-push inflation:A weaker USD can also lead to cost-push inflation. When the value of the US dollar declines, it becomes more expensive for businesses to purchase imported inputs, such as raw materials or machinery. These higher costs can lead to an increase in production costs, which may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.3. Commodity prices:Many commodities, such as

During the 2008 crisis, there were 3 failed banks in 2007, followed by 25 failed banks in 2008. This year, we have 3 failed banks. Is the contagion effect still a concern?Fed has hinted that its benchmark interest rates will stay higher for longer despite inflation rates are slowly falling as price pressures persist.Banks also look set to continue tightening lending standards in the second half of the year. That will make it more difficult and costly for small and midsize businesses (and US households) to secure funding.Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise and so are consumer debt delinquencies. Delinquencies rose across all “days past due” categories on a year-over-year basis, jumping from 0.16% of loans in May 2022 to 0.25% in May 2023.So are we entering a credit crunch?The US consumer