$S&P 500(.SPX)$ has now reached the initial downside objective, with weekly FVG support getting tapped. At the same time, a bullish SMT divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is developing around the August 6 low, suggesting the selloff may be entering a more important decision zone. 👀 The move straight down from the highs looks like the A-wave of an ABC correction. If that structure plays out as expected, the market could spend the rest of the week completing the pullback before setting up for the next leg higher. 📊 🎯 The key level to watch is 7,900. For the bullish scenario to remain valid, price needs to stabilize around the current FVG support and allow the corrective structure to develop rather than t

The W5 blow-off rally has played out almost exactly as expected, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ reaching the 7,700 area. That leaves one final upside zone on the radar: 7,900–8,000. But the bigger question is what happens after that. The June highs are already showing bearish SMT divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , suggesting the rally may be losing momentum beneath the surface. As long as the Nasdaq remains below its all-time highs, the risk of a 10–15% correction remains on the table. The larger Elliott Wave structure also points to a potential W4 decline later this year, with the S&P 500 potentially retracing toward 7,200 or lower. For now, the trend remains bullish, but the risk/reward is changing qu

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ had a clear opportunity to extend the recent rally, but the breakout attempt failed to gain enough momentum. That makes the bearish B-wave rally the higher-probability short-term scenario for now. Under this interpretation, the next move could be a C-wave decline toward the August 6 swing low, completing the bullish ABC corrective structure. If that support holds and the correction finishes as expected, the broader uptrend would remain intact, setting the stage for another leg higher. From there, the next major objective would be 7,900, which could complete the larger W5 advance and mark the next significant upside target. There is still a bullish alternative. If $SPX manages to chop sideways into the CPI release and then break

My August 5 outlook continues to play out. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ reached the first target at 7,700, and the broader bullish structure remains intact. After a period of consolidation, price bounced directly from the Daily FVG, confirming that buyers are still defending the key support zone. With momentum remaining strong, 7,900 is now the next major target, representing the 50% extension of Wave 3. If momentum continues, a move toward new highs could develop early this week. However, I’m not chasing price at these levels. The market is already extended after the recent rally, which makes the risk/reward less attractive for fresh longs. Instead, I’m watching for another pullback into the next bullish Daily FVG. A clean retest followed by a successful

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The triangle has now completed, with Friday's low marking the end of Wave 4. Price has since moved above the July 15 B-wave high, confirming that Wave 5 is officially underway. The breakout is supported by a newly formed daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), which now serves as the first layer of support. As long as price holds above this zone, the broader uptrend remains intact and shallow pullbacks are likely to attract buyers rather than trigger a deeper reversal. The initial upside target at 7,700 has already been achieved. With momentum still firmly on the bulls' side, the next objective is 7,900, representing the 50% extension of Wave 3. That said, the market is becoming extended after the recent advance. Rather than chasing streng

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ invalidated the triangle. Then EXPANDED it. The flush traced a bullish ABC down and respected Daily FVG support. Bullish SMT with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ at last week's low as confluence. Chop into FOMC, then W5 finally unleashes. Bulls still get the edge. Lose the support on a daily close and there's nothing left to bounce from though. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(

$SPX defended the W4 triangle low while $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ swept its June low, creating a bullish SMT divergence. The key trigger now is a breakout above the bearish FVG resistance — a daily close above that level could confirm a new move toward all-time highs. Meanwhile, $MSFT’s Elliott Wave setup hit the 402 target, validating the bullish thesis. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Do or die for $SPX. Price held the W4 triangle low. $NQ swept its June low. SPX didn't. Bullish SMT — DIVERGENCE PRINTED. A new bearish FVG is now the last thing standing between us and new all-time highs. Daily close above the FVG resistance = BUY SIGNAL. Lean stays bullish. Below the triangle → local top warning

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ — breakout coming. Bullish reaction off Daily FVG support with an ABC down. Now holding a bullish SMT at last week's low (DJI). We coiled post-CPI -> That leads to a strong directional move tomorrow. Path of least resistance: all-time highs. Lean: we SMASH through those and break out for W5. Invalidation at the triangle low. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Dow Jones

$SPX inverted the Daily FVG support. Bearish warning now. Lean: another leg down under W4 → 7235–7200. First, a relief bounce into the new bearish Daily FVG. Then rejection → next wave lower into the June low to complete W4. Daily close above 7468 flips it back bullish — W4 triangle back in play. As I mentioned in the update on June 21, Daily FVG support HELD. $SPX still positioned for a new all-time high. W5 targets: 7620–7700. Price may triangulate inside the FVG, but the primary lean holds. Daily close below the FVG invalidates. New highs are the destination.