Since July 2024, the renminbi has gradually started to rebound, with an increase of about 2.5%, thanks to US rate dropped. This has certainly relieved some pressure, allowing the Chinese government to breathe a sigh of relief as it no longer needs to spend huge amounts of money to stabilize the currency. Instead, it can redirect these funds to support the Chinese market, boost domestic demand, and stabilize the housing market and stock market. Let’s take a look at how China plans to stimulate its economy. Some describe the actions of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) as a sweeping wave of hope to prop up the economy. We need to examine their specific strategies and whether they will be effective. The PBOC has begun to lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Specifically, it

Firstly,On Wednesday, July 3, the US ADP research institute released a report showing that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 150,000 in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and a slight decline from the previous value of 152,000.This is the third consecutive month that ADP employment has declined and the lowest level in four months.PicturesSecond,Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of June 29 in the United States was 238,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000.The highest since January this year.PicturesAt the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Labor also showed that the number of people continuing to apply for u

Overnight, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting debuted. The Federal Reserve announced in the early hours of June 13, 2024, Beijing time that it would continue to maintain the target range for Federal Funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50%.This is the seventh consecutive time rates have been kept unchanged since September last year.The Fed's decision was in line with market expectations.Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has conducted 11 rate hike, ranging from 25 basis points at the beginning to 50 basis points later, and 75 basis points for 4 consecutive times. After the subsequent rate hike gradually slowed down, so far rate hike has been suspended 7 times in a row, choosing to stay on hold. The market generally expects the Fed's next move to cut interest rat

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value，The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th

According to CME "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. By May, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 17.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.PictureAs can be seen from the above figure, the current price of the futures market has expected that the Fed will stay put in March and May, and the time node when it is more likely to cut interest rates will be postponed until June this year,It is basically consistent with the expectations that the Fed wanted to guide before.On February 28th, at 21:30

After falling sharply below 3,000 points to reach around 2923, Shanghai index rebounded over the last few days and recovered to around 3017 points on Friday. For Shenzhen index, it recovered to around 9770 from 9373... All these are good signals isn't it? No to me, it is still not safe yet. Why? Shortsellers at the night time apac time last night continued to attack chinese stocks via A50 and hang Seng tech futures to shake the market off from crossing back into the region of strength... Hang Seng Tech futures are already down 1.6 percent and a50 dropped back down from 11995 to around 11885.. like what I had said yesterday on my twitter, china a50 has to cross back above 12k solidly... It was reported in financial news that China will hold a twice a decade work conference to focus on resol

If we see what has happened for A50, it is a pathetic picture. Since the reduction in stamp duty that led to Shanghai index jumping up over 5 percent and hitting above 3200 and A50 jumping above 13100 points, a50 quickly retraced.. now the benefit from price jump for A50 all the way from 12250 to 13100 has been fully eroded. $FTSE China A50 Index - Oct 2023(CN2310)$  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$  $Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  Not only is it here, the breach of the support of 12250 and then 12100 and then 12000

Starting from early September, long-term government bonds represented by 10-year U.S. Treasuries have rapidly increased. On October 3rd, the yield on the 10-year government bond surpassed 4.81%, and the 10-year TIPS yield exceeded 2.45%, marking new highs since 2007 and 2008, respectively. This has had a global impact, with pressure on U.S. stocks and other emerging markets, and a significant drop in the price of gold. As October began, U.S. bond yields started to retreat, and the U.S. stock market saw some degree of rebound.With the recent surge of the "anchor of global asset pricing," an increasing number of senior Federal Reserve officials believe that the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, tightening financial conditions, can substitute for further increases in the benchmark interest

$FTSE China A50 Index - Oct 2023(CN2310)$   Hong Kong market is closed this morning APAC time due to typhoon. This makes me wondered when Hong Kong can eradicate this problem of market closure as a result of typhoon. This is creating problems for market participants and liquidity providers which needs the active markets to manage their risks. Shanghai index came down this morning which is not unexpected given hang Seng tech index weakness last week. Chinext is down too and having breached the 2,000 critical price point mark really makes it worrying for Chinese investors on whether do they want to hold onto their investments.. As you all know, the low can go lower due to extreme fears though true valuation will not be impacted in the short

On the recent Friday, Chinese tech stocks stage an expected rally before we end the week of public holiday for China. Pinduoduo has displayed unusual strength with a price rally of over 7 percent overnight. In comparison, Alibaba and JD.com rally around 3 percent. Generally speaking, Chinese tech stocks going up by around 3 percent is not unusual on Friday since the Chinese tech stocks experienced a drop in price since Tuesday this week. Is this a rebound of retail stocks e-commerce platforms as Chinese retail improves? Has Chinese economy bottomed? What is surprising is a surprise rally of Nasdaq 100 which jumped back fiercely on Friday, with futures jumping above 15.1k. This is almost a 2 percent rally which came from an initial drop of the futures to around 14,730 points... Chinese stoc

We have seen shortsellers taking advantage of the public holiday in China this week to wreck havoc for Chinese tech equities as well as China A50. THIS IS so not surprise as the best time to attack is when your enemy is sleeping. This is what the shortsellers are doing to China. Given this situation and at current valuation of hang Seng tech index together with Chinese tech equities valuation, I would think it will be tough for shortsellers to keep their shortselling position once we head towards the weekend. This is so as they will not be certain how the Chinese authorities will react on next Monday or Tuesday. However, given that there are still 2.5 days left, they might still want to give it a try to push it down further. I was pretty surprised to see the resilience in Tesla share pric

Many investors have been paying attention to Chinese companies listed in the US, such as $Alibaba(BABA)$, $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ or $Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$. But what if you want to invest in or follow Chinese companies that are not listed overseas?Last week, someone shared profits of over $1,000. What happened? How did he achieve this?Let's delve into the details!Congratulations to @Hopehope赋予希望 for earning $1,027 in futures profits! $China A50 Index - main 2309(CNmain)$ reflects the performance of the 50 largest companies by market capitalization in the A-share market of C

$JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ $China A50 Index - main 2309(CNmain)$  Jd.com share price structure has been weak since China's reopening trade has been weaker than expected. Huge expectation for China's economy did not materialise given a difference in consumers' pattern in Us and China. What is even obvious is that there is no consumer specific stimulus like giving money to the consumer to encourage the type of spending required. If I am betting on JD.com now, I am pretty much betting on China's economy recovery. Wi

DBS: China/HK equity strategy: Politburo meeting vows more counter-cyclical policies The research is done by the respective broker and I do not endorse any of them. Just sharing here for information and reading pleasure. https://alphaedgeinvesting.com/2023/07/25/dbs-news-alert-china-hk-equity-strategy-politburo-meeting-vows-more-counter-cyclical-policies/ $HSI(HSI)$ $China A50 Index - main 2307(CNmain)$ 

The $10 Trillion Hidden Debt Problem! Photo by Henry & Co. on Unsplash One of my top 10 read pieces is “Canary In The Coal Mine”, which I wrote last year, demystifying the “troublesome” Chinese property sector. Some people would argue that Chinese Real Estate (RE) forms a small share of the total RE wealth globally; however, one can’t ignore the gargantuan building spree that China has undertaken in the last two decades. China was solely responsible for the commodity bull market that ensued in the first decade of the 21st century. Nevertheless, as the Chinese RE sector peaked and indicated the first signs