Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

At the start of the new year, the drama keeps coming. Over the weekend, the United States launched an operation, directly apprehending Venezuela’s president and bringing him to the U.S. for trial; the speed of the action and the precision of the intelligence once again demonstrated America’s military capabilities. Although there are rumors that the operation went so smoothly because there was an insider, being able to secure an insider is itself a reflection of military strength. Since the incident both occurred and concluded over the weekend (many recent military operations share this style: short duration, clear objectives, and no sustained escalation in responses from either side), for financial markets it would likely be digested within the few hours from Monday’s open through the Asia

The biggest holiday topic is America's move against Maduro, with most analyses covering directly affected assets. This piece focuses on the hidden agenda: dollar dominance.​Common views hold that the US (under Trump) seeks Venezuela's rich oil and commodity resources. Compared to the 1980s oil wars' brute force, today's tactics lack "martial virtue" but prove more effective.​Yet, as ancient wisdom states, subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate strategy—direct intervention signals a loss of control.​(Dollar index performance over the past 60 years)​Latin America's Dollar DependenceFor decades, South America and even Canada's North America have fallen fully under US influence. Through debt and the dollar—the two financial weapons—Latin countries have played the role of beasts of

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo

The U.S. stock market saw a pullback, and while a decline in equity indices is entirely normal, an intraday headline made the move particularly noteworthy. Markets had largely assumed the next Federal Reserve Chair would be White House chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett. However, last Friday (local time), President Trump said that as he considers a successor to Powell, he is leaning toward “two Kevins”—Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Although Hassett has been viewed as the front-runner, Trump noted that after a 45-minute White House meeting with Warsh on Wednesday, Warsh has also entered his top tier of preferred candidates. That news contributed to a pullback in U.S. equity indices, suggesting that markets view Warsh as a relatively hawkish option whose comments may be amplified further,

As possibly the most critical week toward year-end, the Fed’s 25‑basis‑point rate cut this week is already common knowledge. This means the market now needs new information to trigger meaningful volatility. Some believe Chair Powell may announce a bond‑buying program, while others expect a highly dovish outlook at the press conference. However, given that Powell is set to step down in May next year, doing nothing may actually be the best option.​From recent market behavior, even though monetary policy no longer dominates as it once did, investors still generally accept the logic that rate cuts equal easier financial conditions, which in turn are positive for markets. Following this line of reasoning, announcing Treasury purchases or signaling a more dovish path for next year would both be

Many people may not yet have noticed that the current market is showing a very intriguing and seemingly contradictory pattern. On one hand, bond market pricing suggests that investors do not believe the Federal Reserve, even after its leadership change, can smoothly and quickly transition into a clearly dovish policy environment. On the other hand, silver prices have hit fresh highs even without any visible squeeze caused by tightness in the physical inventory. The gold–silver ratio has undergone a technical collapse, which implies that market bets on future inflation remain elevated, and silver is very likely front-running a new upcycle in broader commodities.​国内现货白银市场的基差持续走弱，但美白银仍然持续逼空上涨In Chinese physical silver market, the basis has continued to weaken, yet U.S. silver prices are still

A significant market movement for gold and silver is anticipated leading up to the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. The market widely expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, with some even forecasting another cut in January. However, with the market having already priced in the likely successor to the Fed chair, this meeting is drawing less attention than usual. The primary source of uncertainty may lie in the differing opinions among the voting members. In the near future, the market is likely to focus more on the statements of the "shadow" Fed chair to predict the future path of rate cuts, potentially making the market less sensitive to Fed meetings until the leadership transition is complete.​Gold Awaits a Clearer Path for Rate CutsDespite strong expectations for

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

Next week marks the start of December, and in overseas markets December is usually a fairly quiet month. When there has already been sufficient volatility in the first eleven months, as long as there is no sudden news in December, institutional traders and fund managers generally trade cautiously in order to avoid overtrading and hurting their year-end performance. This year, volatility has already been large due to global trade and tariff headlines, and with the market also expecting a Fed rate cut in December, price swings in December may be smaller than in November. U.S. equity indices might even enter the Christmas season early, meaning light trading and a lukewarm, directionless market.​Over the weekend, an unverified rumor suddenly spread that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce h

Two weeks ago, we discussed that WTI crude oil was trading within a range-bound market, making it suitable for selling weekly WTI put options below the prior low of $55 or holding a short WTI futures position combined with selling weekly put options to construct a covered put strategy for this environment. Investors without access to futures or options can consider energy or crude oil ETFs as an alternative.Bearish Crude Reports Trigger a Sharp Selloff: How to Use Options to Trade a Choppy Market？Since then, WTI crude oil has continued to oscillate and weaken, but it has not yet broken below the $55 level, confirming the effectiveness of the previous strategy. Recently, the price volatility has increased, and WTI crude

Last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll data attracted widespread attention due to severe market disagreements and the need for official data to guide trading decisions.As the first official data released after the U.S. government shutdown ended, although it was delayed by two months, it still provided a baseline for the market's subsequent trend. Before the release, the market had largely withdrawn expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability dropping below 50%, which was a main reason for the stock index decline last week. After the data release, Federal Reserve officials voiced mixed views, with both dovish and hawkish statements highlighting significant divergence ahead of the December Fed meeting. Dovish comments raised the odds of a rate cut and boosted sto

Trend Insights:It is still too early to turn fully bullish on U.S. equities; the main strategic focus should be on trading a potential second bottom rather than rushing to deploy all capital. The current market is shifting from a one-way rally driven by expectations of monetary easing toward a choppier regime in which investors are repricing the timing of rate cuts, the AI bubble, and credit spreads. Over the medium term, U.S. stocks still have a good chance of delivering a “Santa rally,” but near-term risks have not been cleared, and the necessary conditions for a durable reversal are only gradually falling into place, so the time for an all-out long stance has not yet arrived.December rate cut not locked inAt the moment, the probability of a December rate cut implied by Fed funds futures