Trump's "assassination" incident has been fermented for a week, and the influence of "Trump trading" has expanded rapidly, becoming a new round of trading logic in the current market.I also shared my views with you during the live broadcast last Thursday. Unless Trump's support suddenly drops, the deal will last until before the election. Therefore, last week, stock indexes and commodities ignored the Federal Reserve's expectation of three interest rate cuts this year, and the downward adjustment may continue to be turbulent.1. Does the peak price ratio of the Nasdaq and the Dow correspond to the high point of the stock market?As early as the post on June 24, I emphasized to everyone that we should pay attention to the relationship between the price comparison of the Nasdaq and the Dow. At

A growing number of Wall Street economists are warning that,The Federal Reserve has waited too long to reverse course after raising interest rates to their highest point in two decades.At present, the market generally expects that the FOMC will keep the benchmark interest rate stable for the eighth consecutive time at its July meeting, which marks one year since the FOMC has maintained the current interest rate target range of 5.25% to 5.5%.However, for September, the market has unanimously expected that this is the most likely time node for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.I once mentioned that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance actually means that the Federal Reserve has given up its 2% inflation target, and interest rate cuts are already the next event with a high

As of July 9, the Nikkei 225 Index and TOPIX Stock Price Index Futures (TOPIX) hit record highs of 41,769.35 points and 2,907.21 points respectively. The resumption of the Japanese stock market's rise is basically consistent with the cycle of the resumption of the yen's decline against the US dollar, which means that the depreciation of the yen not only reflects the weakness of the Japanese economy, but also reflects the favor of international capital against the Japanese stock market, and shows that the decline of domestic performance of Japanese companies caused by the slowdown of the Japanese economy is not enough to reverse the momentum of overseas profit growth of Japanese companies.It is rare in history that this round of Japanese stock market record high deviates from Japan's econom

Three Horses Driving-The trends of US stocks, gold and Bitcoin have shown obvious differentiation in the past period of time. The strong and strong U.S. stock index has seen a new impetus, and gold is also a bottom out, but Bitcoin has seen a further break. As the price slipped below 56,000, the worry of a bear market began to be gradually raised by the market again. So should we believe in Double Bottoms or Big Double Top?Starting from the fundamentals, the overall situation in the near future is actually relatively stable. Although the benefits of ETF and halving have been implemented, both of them are changes throughout the market, so they can be regarded as long-term support factors.In terms of monetary policy, the interest rate market suggests that the first interest rate cut this yea

From the perspective of the RMB/USD exchange rate, the low point of the new trading range is around 7.1, while the high point of 7.36 is an important pressure level. The slow rise in the second quarter did provide some initial signals, but for pure technical trends, it is obvious that a new high exchange rate (new low RMB exchange rate) is needed to truly announce the arrival of the trend.Why can't we trade early now? The main reason may come from the progress of the news. From a macro logic point of view, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates within this year. Even if the People's Bank of China has loose expectations, it will not be able to widen the interest rate spread. Secondly, the renminbi itself is not a completely freely convertible product, and it will have its ow

The RMB exchange rate fell to a new low in seven months. What's the next?A few days ago, the dollar continued its strong performance against the renminbi in previous months. On June 26, as the the US Dollar Index soared, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 7.30 intraday, and the lowest point hit 7.308878. This is the first time since November 15, 2023 that it has broken through the above-mentioned mark.As of 07:00 on June 27, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar temporarily rose to the level of 7.298813, but the market is cautious about the prospect of a rebound in the RMB exchange rate. Why has the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar declined recently? In fact, this phenomenon is caused by the interweaving of multiple factors.Chart

The recent market is always very volatile, which tests traders' trading skills. Judging from the current situation, it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate until August-September, waiting for the key signal of the Fed's interest rate path.1. Pay attention to the strength and weakness of the US stock indexAt present, the U.S. stock index is still the same as before in the election year, and the trend is still very stable. However, during the rise of the U.S. stock index, the stock price fluctuations of different listed companies rotated. The previous strength of technology stocks made the transaction too crowded. When other economic data pointed to economic recovery, then funds will withdraw from the crowded transaction and turn to Other indexes, and the PMI index released on Fri

After a sharp drop from mid-April to May, international crude oil stopped falling and rebounded in June.Looking forward to the market outlook, we believe that the crude oil market will usher in several positives: the summer U.S. car travel season will drive gasoline consumption, the U.S. will repurchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September will increase due to cooling inflation, and China's economic recovery will bring import demand in the third quarter pick up. The risk factor is that OPEC's resumption of production exceeds expectations, leading to a sharp rebound in supply.Short-term supply contraction, medium-term or recovery expansionIn the second quarter of 2024, global crude oil production will continue to shrink. A