The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

Recently, the Hang Seng Index has surged for three consecutive days, capturing the attention of many traders. Analysts attribute this rally to better-than-expected macroeconomic data from mainland China, an earnings recovery in tech stocks driven by the AI boom, and a short-term easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, against the backdrop of this continuous surge, authoritative institutions warn that the Hong Kong stock market still faces deep-seated tail risks from resurging inflation and foreign capital flight beneath the surface of this rebound. We will now discuss whether it is advisable to chase the current rally in the Hang Seng market.​$A50指数主连 2603(CNmain)$ $恒生指数主连 2603(HSIm

Last week, we were expecting the situation in the Middle East to stay within a relatively controllable range and, as a result, for financial markets to remain broadly stable. However, judging from last Friday’s and early this week’s surge in oil prices, even though there are still no clear signs that the war has formally widened, the risk of it spinning out of control is already on the table. If, at this critical juncture, Trump still cannot come up with a credible exit plan, both financial markets and geopolitics may be hit by a new tsunami. The impact of oil prices on the global financial system and on people’s daily lives via inflation is self-evident. Yet in just a little over a week, we’ve seen a 60% spike in prices, while the key Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of abnormal, semi‑

Following the US-Israeli operation that eliminated a key Iranian figure, the original playbook was to install a pro-American leader within Iran — an approach designed to serve US interests while minimizing the impact on financial markets. Venezuela served as a successful example of this strategy. However, over the past week, it has become clear that the Iran situation has not unfolded according to Washington's script. The new Iranian leadership is likely to remain non-pro-American, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz places Trump in a critically vulnerable position. If oil prices fail to retreat quickly ahead of the approaching midterm elections, the Republican Party could lose congressional seats, effectively crippling Trump's ability to govern in the second half of his term. Given t