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Trump Pressures the Fed for an Emergency Rate Cut: Will U.S. Stocks Rebound This Week?

As Jerome Powell continues to stress uncertainties around the economy and inflation—firmly sticking to a “hawkish” stance against rapid rate cuts—President Trump has now “reached his limit,” openly questioning whether he holds the authority to “fire” the Federal Reserve Chair.Though actually removing Powell in practice would be quite difficult—and with Powell’s term set to expire next year, it·s debatable whether such a move would even be necessary—the increasing disconnect between presidential policy and Fed monetary policy has become stark. Against the backdrop of shifting tariff policies, unexpected headlines have started to hit the market with greater frequency. Given Trump’s characteristic unpredictability, it’s hardly unthinkable that he might impulsively announce Powell’s dismissal,
Trump Pressures the Fed for an Emergency Rate Cut: Will U.S. Stocks Rebound This Week?
avatarBarcode
04-20 01:37
$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ 🚀⚡📈 $ES Cup & Handle Battles the Tariff Tempest: Will Volume Ignite a 475pt Breakout? 📈⚡🚀 The S&P 500 futures ($ES) are sculpting a near-perfect Cup & Handle on the daily chart, but this isn’t playing out in a vacuum. With tariff tremors rattling global markets, I’m watching this setup like a hawk. The structure is textbook, but volume and macro headwinds are casting a long shadow. See the chart below for the C&H formation I’m tracking, note the symmetry of the cup and the current handle resistance at 5,335. 📉 My Chart Deep Dive: Technical Anatomy of the Pattern    •   The Cup (A to B): The base formed at 4,918 in early April. A 417-point rally to 5,335 mid-
avatarTBI
04-18

#TBI2025[16]: 2025 Market Outlook Pt. 3

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended
#TBI2025[16]: 2025 Market Outlook Pt. 3

1 Tiger made $1.55M shorting 1 Nasdaq future. Will you start with micro futures?

I. How did @666 Dazi make $1.55 million?Last week, the US stock market experienced a sharp decline followed by a significant rebound. This historic market movement caused panic among many investors.A futures trader named 666 Dazi posted a screenshot early on Friday, April 12, showing a profit of $1.55 million. He is likely another mysterious big shot.From his brief sharing, it appears that he made a profit of $1.55 million by shorting one contract of $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2506(NQmain)$ .It is worth noting that on April 10, the Nasdaq fell by 852 points, rose by 2,121 points on April 9, and fell by 1,165 points on April 4. The historic volatility of the market last week was evident to all.In the futures market, such volatility can indeed le
1 Tiger made $1.55M shorting 1 Nasdaq future. Will you start with micro futures?

Is Gold Price Breaking $3,300 Just the Beginning?

As global markets react to mounting uncertainties, gold has emerged as the standout performer in the financial landscape. This analysis examines the recent surge in gold prices, the underlying factors driving this movement, and what experts predict for the precious metal's future trajectory amid evolving economic policies and market sentiment.Gold Reaches Historic Heights Amid Global UncertaintyOn Wednesday (April 16), COMEX gold broke through the $3,300 per ounce threshold, setting a new historical high. Since the beginning of 2025, international gold prices have cumulatively risen by more than 25%, a performance significantly outpacing other assets1. This remarkable rally comes against a backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment.With Trump's frequ
Is Gold Price Breaking $3,300 Just the Beginning?
avatarBarcode
04-16
$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ 🌐📊🔥 $ES Futures Illuminates a Defining Crossroads at 5285: A Symphony of Market Mastery 🔥📊🌐 Peering into the 4 hour chart, $ES futures unveils 5285 as a pivotal nexus, where the pulse of the market beats with undeniable force, a threshold that whispers of both opportunity and caution. Should this line falter, a deliberate descent unfolds, charting a course through 5220, 5200, and 5170, each a stepping stone in a potential cascade. Breach 5170, and the momentum may sweep inexorably toward 5085, a depth where resilience could be tested anew. Yet, the upward saga holds its ground, with resistance standing tall at 5375 and 5430, bastions where the market’s spirit contends with gravity. This intricate i
avatarBarcode
04-16
$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ 🚨📈💥 S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Explode 100 Points: 🇨🇳 China’s Olive Branch to Trump Sparks Rally 💥📈🚨 S&P 500 E-Mini Futures have erupted, gaining 100 points to hit 5,391.75 after a turbulent session that bottomed at 5,340.00. The spark? A Bloomberg report, citing “a person familiar with Chinese government thinking,” reveals China is open to talks with President Trump, but only if the U.S. shows “respect” and names a clear point person. This could be a game-changer for markets, as easing US,China trade tensions might stabilise global supply chains and ignite a broader risk,on rally in equities. The futures chart captures the drama: a sharp reversal at 04:00 triggered a near,vertical spike, reflecting

Trump’s Shifting Tariff Expectations: How Should Investors Judge the Direction of US Stocks and Gold

The recent market has become highly disorderly due to fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies, with dramatic falls and rises triggered by mere words. In this emotional market environment, news can only determine short-term trends. Despite significant volatility, these large fluctuations do not represent medium to long-term market directions. Therefore, Trump's statement about delaying tariff policy implementation by 90 days alone cannot confirm that US stock indices have entered a reversal pattern - what if he changes his mind again in the near future?Technical Observation of US Stock IndicesWith neither news nor fundamentals yielding clear conclusions, it's evident that the market is heavily influenced by emotions. Therefore, tracking the market using technical analysis methods will be mo
Trump’s Shifting Tariff Expectations: How Should Investors Judge the Direction of US Stocks and Gold

Trump’s Policy Reversals Signal a Potential Double Bottom for the Market

Last week's financial market was truly spectacular, though it still fell short compared to the face-changing Trump. We previously speculated that Trump would look for a way to step down, thereby helping the market stabilize and rebound. Although his final actions did indeed help risk assets find a bottom, his rhetoric of "I haven't surrendered, these are all strategies" and the weekend hints about "exemptions" strongly suggest that a second market bottom is highly probable1.The Failed Tariff StrategyLooking at the developments on the tariff issue, although things didn't unfold exactly as anticipated, the 90-day postponement essentially represents a delaying tactic forced upon the US after its original strategy failed. Judging from China's rapid responses and countermeasures, Trump's cards
Trump’s Policy Reversals Signal a Potential Double Bottom for the Market

Is the Recession Shock Imminent? Should Investors Buy the Dip After the Market Plunge?

The US stock market is undergoing significant turmoil, with concerns over the economy intensifying. President Trump’s announcement of large-scale tariffs has triggered a wave of panic selling in global markets. Further complicating the market outlook, several economic indicators point toward the possibility of a recession. Experts believe that whether the market will experience another massive sell-off depends largely on whether fears of an imminent economic recession are debunked.Growing Recession Risk in the US EconomyEconomic Data Signals Trouble AheadRecent economic predictions paint a grim picture. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model has downgraded its outlook for first-quarter 2025 US real GDP growth from 2.3% to a contraction of 2.825%, marking the worst quarter for the US ec
Is the Recession Shock Imminent? Should Investors Buy the Dip After the Market Plunge?

After the Market Turmoil Caused by Trump, Should We Buy U.S. Stocks at Low Levels?

Global investors and American voters may now regret elevating Trump—a leader whose erratic nature has repeatedly pushed financial markets to "witness history" within days. While Trump insists these developments are part of his grand plan, feedback from China and Europe clearly indicates his bluffing strategies have backfired. At this point, figuring out a graceful way to step back has become the most urgent task.Previously, we discussed how the new president would need to trigger a correction in overvalued assets while fostering his own leading stocks. However, the real challenge lies in managing the market disruption caused by these operational adjustments. The last double-digit weekly drop in U.S. equities happened five years ago during Trump's presidency, though this time, there's no ex
After the Market Turmoil Caused by Trump, Should We Buy U.S. Stocks at Low Levels?

U.S. Tariff Hike: How Will Markets Price in a Recession?

On April 4, China announced a series of countermeasures against the United States' imposition of tariffs, including a decisive move to impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the U.S. This unprecedented response caught global markets off guard, highlighting China's preparedness since the 2018 trade war and revealing vulnerabilities in Western financial markets. As news spread, commodities faced significant sell-offs, and global markets began pricing in a potential economic recession. The U.S. stock indices’ sharp decline echoed patterns seen during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, signaling growing pessimism about the global economy.U.S. Stock Indices Enter Recession Mode, Resembling 2020 Pandemic TrendsThough skepticism toward U.S. stock performanc
U.S. Tariff Hike: How Will Markets Price in a Recession?

U.S. stocks continue to panic! Which options strategies can hedge against a plunge?

Recently, global markets have been in violent turmoil due to tariff clouds, changes in economic policies and macroeconomic expectations. On Monday, U.S. stock futures opened plummeting, and panic index futures soared; Meanwhile, gold continued to pull back, copper oil plummeted, and risk aversion pushed the yen higher.$SP500 Index Main 2506 (ESmain) $The decline quickly exceeded 4%,$NQ100 Index Main 2506 (NQmain) $It fell more than 5%, and Dow Jones futures also came close to a 4% drop.In the face of such violent market volatility, investors need to take effective hedging measures to reduce risks.Changing global marketsOver the weekend, senior Trump economic officials came forward to dismiss investor co
U.S. stocks continue to panic! Which options strategies can hedge against a plunge?

Tariff disruptions resurface, US stock indices' rebound fades

On March 26, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an announcement at the White House declaring a 25% tariff on imported cars. The measure will take effect on April 2. Trump emphasized that the tariff would be permanent, adding that cars manufactured within the United States would be exempt from the tax.Trump's statement quickly triggered backlash from U.S. trade partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Japan. 1. Where is the Support Level for the Second Phase of the U.S. Stock Index Decline?Recent analyses suggest that the U.S. stock index rebound seen earlier was merely temporary and not indicative of a full recovery. In fact, the rebound was weaker than expected, reinforcing the likelihood that February's peak will remain the high point for the year. Given the renewed downward t
Tariff disruptions resurface, US stock indices' rebound fades

Will OPEC+ Supply Disruptions Trigger a Crude Oil Rebound?

Since mid-March, international crude oil prices have experienced a rebound. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rose from $65.6 per barrel on March 10 to $69.37 per barrel by March 25, an increase of about 5.7%. Similarly, ICE Brent crude oil futures rose from $68.65 per barrel to $72.54 per barrel during the same period.This price rally is driven by supply-side disruptions, including geopolitical crises and U.S. sanctions, which have led to downward revisions in crude oil production forecasts for 2025. OPEC+'s implementation of compensatory production cuts has eased concerns about oversupply. However, factors such as China’s shift to new energy vehicles and reduced oil demand in the U.S. due to tariffs and fiscal tightening make it unlikely that crude oil will break away from its oversupply trend
Will OPEC+ Supply Disruptions Trigger a Crude Oil Rebound?

Where will the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond lead the market?

At the latest Federal Reserve meeting last week, policymakers unsurprisingly chose to maintain the status quo on interest rates. The relatively dovish tone of the communication improved market sentiment slightly, yet significant uncertainty remains over the future trajectory of monetary policy. Opinions are split: some believe that former President Trump's anti-globalization policies might lead to inflation or stagflation, preventing the Fed from cutting rates, while others anticipate that recession risks will compel the Fed to implement aggressive monetary easing to stabilize the economy. Examining bond market data can help determine which of these scenarios is more plausible.Recent Trends in 10-Year Treasury YieldsSince peaking at over 5% during the previous U.S. rate-hiking cycle, the 1
Where will the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond lead the market?

What Does the US-Russia Joint Statement Mean for Gold and the US Stock Market?

Media Report: U.S. and Russia Expected to Release Joint Statement at 4 PM Beijing Time.According to CBS News, after the Saudi-hosted talks on a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea region, it is anticipated that the United States and Russia will issue a joint statement. .The announcement is scheduled for 4 AM Washington time, 11 AM Moscow time, and 4 PM Beijing time. While specific details of the statement remain unclear, reports from U.S. technical teams in Saudi Arabia shared with the Trump administration appear optimistic. Additionally, Ukrainian officials have been briefed on the developments.Historically, factors driving gold price fluctuations have revolved around two key attributes: its role as a hedge against inflation and its value as a safe-haven asset. Since President Trump took
What Does the US-Russia Joint Statement Mean for Gold and the US Stock Market?

Trump's Call for Powell to Cut Rates!What‘s The Implications for the Market

Overnight, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as anticipated, while announcing significant policy adjustments. According to the FOMC statement, beginning April 1st, the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction pace, decreasing Treasury securities reduction limits from $25 billion/month to $5 billion/month, while maintaining the MBS reduction cap at $35 billion/month. The committee noted increased economic uncertainty but still forecasts two interest rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points altogether.Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed, Two Rate Cuts - All Within ExpectationsFed Chairman Powell broke new ground in the press conference by addressing tariffs for the first time, acknowledging that Trump's policies are impacting the economy. He emphasized
Trump's Call for Powell to Cut Rates!What‘s The Implications for the Market

How much upside potential does gold still have?

After recognizing the mistake and previously being bullish on gold, its price has continued to rise with little resistance, recently surpassing the $3,000 milestone. With this milestone achieved, investors are concerned about how far this gold bull market can go and whether a correction or reversal might occur soon. This outlook explores these questions briefly.Firstly, regarding the bullish target, we previously discussed that once the triangular formation ended, new upside potential opened up, with the target for a bullish rally pointing towards the $3,300 resistance area. Based on current prices, there's roughly a 10% upside potential left in the medium term. Considering gold's historical volatility and its low points at the beginning of the year, this target aligns with past patterns.
How much upside potential does gold still have?

Market Trends Ahead of the Federal Reserve Meeting

This Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate setting meeting, which receives significant market attention, especially during quarterly meetings. Previously, there were pessimistic expectations about the Fed cutting rates twice this year. If the post-meeting press conference does not convey a sufficiently hawkish stance, the market might become more optimistic, potentially boosting indices further. Therefore, stock index trends might change around Wednesday this week. If there's a significant rebound on Monday and Tuesday, investors should be cautious about potential peak rebounds on Wednesday, as the market's fear index (VIX) is relatively high, and a double bottom is quite common.Wind Direction: Will the Federal Reserve Remain Cautious This Month,
Market Trends Ahead of the Federal Reserve Meeting
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