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avatarFutures_Pro
12-12 16:20

Yen And Japan Equity Market Outlook 2025

After Shigeru Ishiba was re-elected as Prime Minister of Japan on November 11th, the Japanese economy still faces several major challenges, among which it is particularly important to seek a balance between inflation and economic growth. Recently, the Japanese stock market has fallen into a range-bound trend, and the yen exchange rate no longer depreciates unilaterally. By next year, the direction of Shigeru Ishiba's economic stimulus is to increase residents' income and fight inflation through subsidies, but the effect remains to be seen. The tariff increase imposed by Trump's new administration may have an additional impact on the Japanese economy, and the sustainability of Japan's debt is also problematic. Therefore, the Japanese stock market has not yet ushered in a new upward driver.
Yen And Japan Equity Market Outlook 2025
avatar程俊Dream
12-11 15:38

Is Trump Really So Great for Bitcoin?

Judging from the existing answers, it is naturally yes. But what needs to be clear is that there is still more than a month before Trump actually moves into the White House.Before the general election, we once discussed the market in Bitcoin, when the price was still brewing a breakthrough below 70,000. "There is not much time left for the bulls" was the main judgment at the time. Because structurally speaking, the adjustment cycle is completely sufficient and sufficient for more than half a year, and that price position, whether it is Harris or Trump, will push for a breakthrough. Then sure enough, the bulls made the final breakthrough. Of course, it must be admitted that after the election results were released, this short-squeeze rise still exceeded expectations. Previously, the high po
Is Trump Really So Great for Bitcoin?

OPEC+ Delays Oil Output Hike Until April,What It Means For Oil Price

Last week, the non-farm data of the United States was released. As suggested by last week's article, the market's attention is not on the economic data of the past two months, but more on the effectiveness of Trump's economic policies after he took office. Therefore, the market performance was relatively flat last week, and the U.S. stock index hit a new high tepid. It is estimated that the pace of the Fed's interest rate cut has not changed much, and it is estimated that there will be a clearer trend after Trump takes office next year.Although the price fluctuation was not large last week, for the oil market, the news announced by OPEC + is very important and needs everyone's attention. This news is that OPEC + announced that additional voluntary production cuts will be postponed for thre
OPEC+ Delays Oil Output Hike Until April,What It Means For Oil Price

US Dollar Index Fundamental Analysis Outlook For Next Week

Looking back at last week, after three consecutive weeks of sharp rises, the US dollar finally ushered in a correction, and the single-week decline was relatively large, nearly half of the previous increase. However, the weekly line of the the US Dollar Index still shows an obvious bullish technical form. Combined with the current fundamental situation, it is more likely that the market outlook will remain strong. In terms of non-US currencies, the yen surged due to inflation data; Looking ahead to this week, the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and public speeches of Federal Reserve officials will be the focus of the market.Global foreign exchange focus review and fundamental summaryAfter rising for three consecutive weeks, the US dollar experienced a weekly correction, and the follow-up tre
US Dollar Index Fundamental Analysis Outlook For Next Week

Is the U.S. stock market changing its leader or brewing a correction?

Nvidia, the leader of U.S. stocks in the past two years, has not performed well in the past few weeks. Although the financial report is not bad, as the main promoter of the "predecessor" Biden, it is obvious that some glory is no longer in the context of Trump's second entry into the palace. The fall in the weekly level of the previous week directly affected the price pattern. Will this mean that the U.S. stock market will take the lead in the change in the future cycle, or will the trend itself change?Nvidia once fell below the weekly low at the end of October last week. Although it finally recovered and left a lower shadow line, it still ended the bullish pattern of "higher lows" after the June adjustment. Looking forward, the fall of the weekly swing low can be traced back to a year ago
Is the U.S. stock market changing its leader or brewing a correction?

US Jobs Report At The End Of The Year : What To Expect?

Next week is the beginning of the month, and the non-farm data will come again. The current non-farm data is the basis for the market to speculate on the path of the Fed's interest rate cut. If the data continues to improve, the rate of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will slow down, from the previous expectation of cutting interest rates at every meeting, to cutting interest rates at every other meeting, or even stopping cutting interest rates. This has an impact on the overall trend of commodities.Gold does not react strongly to the pace of interest rate cutsFrom the perspective of impact, the impact on gold and other varieties is not great. The current important impact of gold prices lies in geopolitics, and fluctuations also come from the uncertainty of conflict news. The sha
US Jobs Report At The End Of The Year : What To Expect?

Gold suddenly plummeted, why?

The decline in gold prices overnight was indeed a bit sharp:PicturesYesterday, the big K line of gold fell by 3.36%, equivalent to 91.15 US dollars, and the amplitude ranged from the highest 2721 to 2615. Both the amplitude and the decline have exceeded 1106, which is the big K line after the results of the US presidential election in November. There It fell 3.10% to 85.05 US dollars.The short-term decline of gold is mainly related to the following reasons:First, it is related to the cooling of geopolitical tensions.Last week, Russia and Ukraine launched missiles at each other, which triggered a rise in risk aversion. However, the situation in the region did not escalate further over the weekend. In addition, the market has reported this week that Israel may reach a ceasefire agreement wit
Gold suddenly plummeted, why?

Is NOW The Time To Buy Oil!?

The period from Trump's victory in the US election to his official entry into the White House looks expected to make a smooth transition. In addition to Biden's official statement, the crude oil market also gave the same signal. Although the key low of 63.6 was repeatedly tested, the bulls were able to save the day, which implies that there will be no obvious change in risk appetite in the short term.The three key range positions of crude oil: 63-70-84 respectively represent the lowest point of the range, the level of repurchased crude oil reserves previously stated by the US government, and the central axis price in the past two years. Although after the first quarter of this year, oil prices remained trading below the central axis level, and seemed to rebound one wave after another, the
Is NOW The Time To Buy Oil!?

Risk Aversion Sentiment Is Back ,It`s Time To Buy Gold Now?

After Trump was elected president of the United States, the market once believed that there could be a peaceful solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a short period of time. But instead,the media revealed that the U.S. government had lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of weapons provided by the United States to attack targets in Russia in depth, then Russia updated its nuclear policy, and then the two countries began to fire missiles to each other to escalate the conflict, which dispelled the market from Russia. The idea that the Ukrainian conflict can end in a short time has renewed risk aversion in the market.Gold prices have soared strongly, and new highs are expectedSince the conflict has escalated, the war premium (risk aversion) squeezed in the last two weeks has returned, cau
Risk Aversion Sentiment Is Back ,It`s Time To Buy Gold Now?

Should You Invest In Japanese Stocks Now?

Since mid-July, the Japanese stock market has entered a stage of high volatility, during which a series of uncertain factors such as the rate hike of the Bank of Japan, the violent fluctuation of the yen exchange rate and the "Trump deal" ushered in the US election. From the perspective of the Japanese stock market, if the Trump administration brings reflation and the appreciation of the US dollar, then Japan will face greater pressure of capital outflow.Economic slowdown will continueFrom the perspective of stock pricing logic, it is inseparable from corporate profits and risk premiums, both of which are inseparable from the fundamentals of economic growth. Going back to the fundamentals of Japan's economic growth, we can see that GDP growth is slowing down. Generally speaking, it is diff
Should You Invest In Japanese Stocks Now?

Gold, Long Term Top?

At the end of October, before the US presidential election, we specifically pointed out that gold had reached the medium and long-term target position, and it was time to take profits. At that time, the price of gold was around 2750. Although there were higher highs afterwards, looking back now, it was obviously a suitable appearance. In addition to price changes, more importantly, short-term and medium-term trends, and even long-term structures, gold shows obvious signs of loosening.First of all, from the perspective of the weekly situation, gold broke through the swing low last week, which was the first time since the autumn of 2023, when gold had not yet set a new record high. Generally speaking, if this low point is no longer gradually raised, it means that the obvious rally has stoppe
Gold, Long Term Top?

The Fed is hawkish, U.S. stocks and gold are about to usher in a new round of correction

There were not many big events last week, but the market was not small at all. Since the US election, nothing in the financial market has risen smoothly except the US dollar and Bitcoin, and even the varieties that Trump intends to suppress have fallen one after another. At present, the market is still in the honeymoon period when the market expects the effectiveness of Trump's policies, and the main line has not changed much, which means that before Trump really takes office, strong varieties will continue to be strong, while weak varieties are more likely to continue to fall. Everyone should pay attention to it.The chairman of the Federal Reserve said at an event in Dallas last week that the current recovery momentum of the U.S. economy is good, the labor market is stable, and although i
The Fed is hawkish, U.S. stocks and gold are about to usher in a new round of correction

Trump 2.0 is here, what now?

The much-anticipated U.S. election finally revealed its outcome last week: although Trump seems to be very close to Harris in traditional polls, it actually ended with Trump's big victory. With the second entry of this old acquaintance, the capital market also began to give some feedback. So what assets and changes are worth watching for us?About the crypto marketThere is no doubt that this is the strongest variety after the news that Trump is about to take office. Mainstream coins represented by Bitcoin and a number of altcoins have experienced huge gains in just one week. On the one hand, Trump showed the characteristics of a pro-crypto market during the election campaign; on the other hand, his main election assistant, Musk, is also very keen to "shout" on social media.Although we were
Trump 2.0 is here, what now?

What does Trump’s 2024 election win mean for global markets?

In last week's US election, Trump finally won, and the market entered the honeymoon period of Trump's trading. Although Trump will not officially take office until January next year, his remarks and preparatory actions have made the market full of expectations. The recent market fluctuations are all related to his words and deeds, so everyone should pay attention to tracking them. The following is a slight list of the relevant trading opportunities after Trump won the election for your reference.The U.S. stock index differentiates, keeping a close eye on the Dow RussellBefore the election, I analyzed with you that Trump's relevant policies will be relatively beneficial to small and medium-sized enterprises and traditional industries, so the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000
What does Trump’s 2024 election win mean for global markets?

Stocks went from de-risking to re-risking this week

Stocks went from de-risking to re-risking this week

Two key assets to keep an eye on during election week

U.S. bond yields rose further last week, putting gold under pressure, but the long-term narrative has not changed. As far as copper is concerned, the performance of copper prices in the past two weeks has been extremely calm and in a state of volatility convergence, just as all kinds of assets have amplified fluctuations due to Trump's coming to power, thus pricing in advance the possibility after he took office. CORE POINTS1. Copper prices continued to fluctuate last week, and gold fell back after hitting a new highIn terms of precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.55% and silver fell 5.22% last week; The Shanghai Gold 2410 contract fell 0.46%, and the Shanghai Silver 2410 contract fell 5.12%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper changed by-7.53% and-3
Two key assets to keep an eye on during election week

The Final Day of Voting in the US Is Here,What to Watch in Markets?

The U.S. election has entered the final stage. Although the last voting day is November 6th, there are already a lot of voting data for reference due to mail-in ballots and early voting. Generally speaking, no candidate can win shoo-in at present. Let's wait for the results on Tuesday to observe the final changes in the market and whether supporters of both parties are satisfied with the process of the results after the final results are released. If they are dissatisfied, there may be riots similar to those in 2020, which may bring further turmoil to the market, and this turmoil may be global.The impact of U.S. stock indexesAfter the presidential election in the United States, the motivation to maintain the stability of the American stock market will gradually disappear. The continuation
The Final Day of Voting in the US Is Here,What to Watch in Markets?

Chart of the Week - What to Expect

So you’re probably thinking —given the US election is hours away (from the time of writing), that this note is going to be yet another blab of blibber blubber about what to expect with the election…But there’s a couple of things on my mind that I think should also be on your mind. This is note is therefore more bigger picture, more longer-term focused, and I would say much more useful for asset allocators and those who’re not completely caught up in the short-term noise/news.We’re of course talking about asset class expected returns.This is an area that can be a bit controversial because the mechanics of the math with these things tends to result in sometimes deeply contrarian outputs, and hence will often hurt feelings and present dissonance with deeply-ingrained recency bias.For instance
Chart of the Week - What to Expect

Daily Charts - November has historically been one of the best months

1.November has historically been one of the best months of the year for the stockmarket*(albeit *mileage may vary!) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.Despite all the noise about new tech/internet/software stocks, there’s still a lot of old boring companies keeping the lights on for the rest of the economy... (but then again, think about e.g. $IBM(IBM)$ it’s 113 years old! and even $Microsoft(MSFT)$ is 49)Digital disruption is cool and everything, but never underestimate the importance of scale (and inertia/incumbency
Daily Charts - November has historically been one of the best months

The Impact of Earthquakes on the Japanese Stock Market

Since Japan launched its rate hike, the Japanese stock market has entered a high sideways consolidation stage, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by less than 3% in October. Recently, in the 50th House of Representatives election in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its ruling position for the first time since 2009, and the Japanese stock market and exchange rate fluctuated greatly in the short term, which brought great uncertainty to Japan's monetary and fiscal policies in the future.There are downside risks to the economyAccording to published data, the Japanese government's second-quarter GDP growth rate was lowered from 0.8% to 0.7%, and the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was lowered from 3.1% to 2.9%. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of private final c
The Impact of Earthquakes on the Japanese Stock Market