The gold’s record high finally arrived on Monday. After the gap up, the gold price is currently at 2152, which is significantly higher than the previous high, which means that a new bull market rising to 2200-2300 has started. For precious metal traders, whether the confirmation of the trend can bring silver to make up for the rise may be a trading opportunity that can be paid attention to in the next stage.After half a year's correction of the previous triple top form of gold futures, the current breakthrough is very ideal in both price and time period, so the probability of effective breakthrough is far greater than false breakthrough.Long ago, according to the long-term graphic structure of gold, we predicted that the ultimate goal of gold price in this big bull market can be seen at le

Chart of The Day 5 December: Dow Futures $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2312(YMmain)$ sequence remains bullishDow Futures (YM_F) shows incomplete sequence from 10.3.2022 low favoring further upside. Rally from 10.3.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.3.2022 low, wave (1) ended at 35228 and dips in wave (2) ended at 32409. Wave (3) higher is in progress as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 34315 and dips in wave 2 ended at 33913. Index then resumed higher in wave 3 towards 36338.The 45 minutes chart below shows the move higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 35456 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 35309. Up from wave ((ii)), the Index is nesting in wave (i) at 35

With the publication of comments from two important Fed directors overnight, the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 is more intense.First,Governor Waller, one of the Fed's toughest officials, said that the policy is in place to return the inflation rate to the Fed's target of 2%, indicating that policy makers may not need to rate hike again.Second,Bowman, another Fed governor, said she is still willing to support rate hike if inflation stagnates, but did not express her support for next month's rate hike.It should be said that the speeches of the above-mentioned two directors with permanent voting rights are dovish and hawkish, and the market directly interprets them as all dovish,That is to say, the Federal Reserve has recognized the cowardice and can't bear i

Driven by the easing of China-US relations and the relatively calm market news, US stocks rose steadily in the coming month, while the Nasdaq, as the leader, was even more brilliant, breaking through the high level in July this year. However, with the decline of core stocks last week and the near high of S&P and Dow, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of recent stock index correction.In the watch list, one of the most important indicators is naturally Nvidia, a stock led by AI concept with unlimited scenery this year. We have also highlighted it before when it dropped from its high position and tested the neck line of the head and shoulder. In short, NVIDIA's trend can be regarded as the leading indicator of Nasdaq to a great extent, and at the same time indirectly affects th

After the CPI data of October was released in the United States, the the US Dollar Index fell sharply, and the three major stock indexes in the United States rose sharply. The market generally predicted that the Federal Reserve might start the process of cutting interest rates by the end of next year at the latest. According to historical performance, the Federal Reserve will have a negative impact on the global capital market during the rate hike, especially the US stock market, and will play a certain role in promoting the recovery of the capital market during the Fed's interest rate cut.In this way, it is easy to understand the strong short-term performance of US stocks, but from the perspective of the past year, the performance of the S&P 500 index is not satisfactory.Figure 1: Tre

Gold fell to correction in November after rising continuously, but silver, which had been tepid before, walked out of the bullish positive trend last week. The downward trend line resistance since the first quarter of this year is currently suppressing the attack of silver bulls. If the suppression can be successfully broken through, precious metals are expected to make greater progress, and gold is even expected to reach a new high at the end of this yearFrom the weekly chart of silver, we can see that the current silver price as a whole is still within a certain range of fluctuation in the past three years, and does not have the ability to soar. Nevertheless, the more standard flag-shaped finishing combined with the previous rebound momentum still gives people a feeling of gaining moment

Despite the tepid performance of the US Dollar Index in the past few weeks, this still cannot stop the yen's continued decline.In the 11 months from 2023 to the present, the yen closed up in only 2 months, This shows the determination and motivation of the market to sell yen. On the one hand, the lack of real safe-haven demand in the market makes the yen go unattended. On the other hand, more crucially, the expected central bank turn (ultra-loose to normal) has not appeared.Ueda Kazuo's latest speech in November made the trend of the yen even more worrying. He stated that it is necessary to cut interest rates cautiously, and relaxing ultra-loose monetary policy is a severe challenge. Earlier, the Bank of Japan challenged YCC policy again, and raising the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds to

On November 3rd, the United States released the latest non-farm payrolls data, which showed that the non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, which is expected to be 180,000. The number of new jobs in September was revised down from 336,000 to 297,000, and the number of new jobs in October was only half of the number of new jobs in September, which was the second lowest since 2022.The number of new non-farm jobs slowed down beyond expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a high level since January 2022, which indicates that the hot American labor market began to cool down.The news came that the strong hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve might be restrained in the face of facts, the rate hike policy might be stopped, and even there was the possibility of lowering intere

In the past week, the news was relatively calm, and most assets also showed a revised market trend. Among them, the US Dollar Index fell back after failing to hit the high level for the second time.At present, the probability of walking out of the second leg is increasing.In the process, risky assets are expected to maintain a good momentum, but the US dollar will eventually find the bottom and show strength again.The sharp decline of US dollar in the Candlestick Chart is accompanied by the latest non-farm data, and the superposition of technical and news makes the short-term break more effective. On the weekly chart, it is obvious that the Concealing Swallow structure had come into being .The theoretical goal of double-top shape points at least below 104. At the current price and time spa

The trajectory of US stocks last week is roughly the same as that predicted. Under the continuous pressure of star stocks, the stock index also fell synchronously. Although from a technical point of view, NVIDIA's head and shoulder break may mean further downward and partial filling behavior, thus dragging down the market to continue downward revision, some subtle news changes also reveal pessimistic optimism.Continuing the selling pressure brought by chip rumors in the previous two weeks, NVIDIA finally broke down last week. Whether this is the final and effective break is expected to be concluded this week. According to the situation of NASDAQ, the probability of breaking the position is quite high. According to the theoretical goal of the form standard, after the successful break, the d

The first chart below is the price change chart of American 10-year bond futures (ZN), and the other one is the price trend of American Nasdaq stock index futures (NQ) in one year.As of October 20th, the 10-year bond interest rate in the United States has reached the highest level since the late 1970s: 5%, when the Great Depression was caused by global inflation because of the energy crisis.Last month, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street investors shudder when it said at a news conference after the open market meeting that US interest rates might be higher and last longer.Obviously, the negative impact of high interest rates caused by inflation on the stock market is far from over. 2024 will be a more challenging year for interest rates and the stock market.Historical facts have proved th