YMmain (E-mini Dow Jones - main 2409)
Please go to Tiger Trade for futures detailsDownload APP
avatar许亚鑫
07-18 16:54

Will the odds of a rate cut by September become 100%?What‘s The Next Move Of Market?

A growing number of Wall Street economists are warning that,The Federal Reserve has waited too long to reverse course after raising interest rates to their highest point in two decades.At present, the market generally expects that the FOMC will keep the benchmark interest rate stable for the eighth consecutive time at its July meeting, which marks one year since the FOMC has maintained the current interest rate target range of 5.25% to 5.5%.However, for September, the market has unanimously expected that this is the most likely time node for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.I once mentioned that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance actually means that the Federal Reserve has given up its 2% inflation target, and interest rate cuts are already the next event with a high
Will the odds of a rate cut by September become 100%?What‘s The Next Move Of Market?
avatar程俊Dream
07-17 15:29

How will Trump's assassination affect the election and markets?

There's no doubt that the weekend news surrounding Trump's assassination has outpaced U.S. economic data such as non-farm payroll inflation. Although the market as a whole opened calmly at the beginning of this week, this variable is likely to have affected the progress of the general election, which will trigger a series of chain reactions.In previous poll data, Trump was ahead of Biden, but after the weekend attack, this data further widened the gap. There is even a saying that there is no suspense about Trump's election. It must be admitted that in the competition between the two "old people", Biden has almost no advantage. However, the general election in the United States is not a complete leader's charisma, nor is it simply about the amount of people's support. Therefore, our judgmen
How will Trump's assassination affect the election and markets?
avatarIvan_Gan
07-16 16:16

Trump shooting offers test for stock market as investors weigh his election odds now

Unexpectedly, just as the data super week came to an end, the weekend ushered in even more exciting news. Trump, the "King of Knowing", was shot when he delivered a speech at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, and was characterized as an "attempted assassination" incident. This news has attracted the common concern of the world, and it will inevitably cause certain fluctuations in the market when the market opens next week. Therefore, investors should pay attention to the market situation after the market opens on Monday before making investment plans, so as to avoid losses caused by too much swing.As for the medium and long-term impact of the financial market, this incident mainly affected the probability of Trump being re-elected as president of the United States, which in turn caused the
Trump shooting offers test for stock market as investors weigh his election odds now

Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue?

As of July 9, the Nikkei 225 Index and TOPIX Stock Price Index Futures (TOPIX) hit record highs of 41,769.35 points and 2,907.21 points respectively. The resumption of the Japanese stock market's rise is basically consistent with the cycle of the resumption of the yen's decline against the US dollar, which means that the depreciation of the yen not only reflects the weakness of the Japanese economy, but also reflects the favor of international capital against the Japanese stock market, and shows that the decline of domestic performance of Japanese companies caused by the slowdown of the Japanese economy is not enough to reverse the momentum of overseas profit growth of Japanese companies.It is rare in history that this round of Japanese stock market record high deviates from Japan's econom
Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue?

Will Bitcoin have pretty sharp rebound in the second half of this year,after holding key support?

Three Horses Driving-The trends of US stocks, gold and Bitcoin have shown obvious differentiation in the past period of time. The strong and strong U.S. stock index has seen a new impetus, and gold is also a bottom out, but Bitcoin has seen a further break. As the price slipped below 56,000, the worry of a bear market began to be gradually raised by the market again. So should we believe in Double Bottoms or Big Double Top?Starting from the fundamentals, the overall situation in the near future is actually relatively stable. Although the benefits of ETF and halving have been implemented, both of them are changes throughout the market, so they can be regarded as long-term support factors.In terms of monetary policy, the interest rate market suggests that the first interest rate cut this yea
Will Bitcoin have pretty sharp rebound in the second half of this year,after holding key support?

Market Volatility is coming,Two key opportunities!

This week's big news is as important as last week : including inflation expectations data on Monday, Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony on Tuesday, CPI data on Thursday, and PPI data on Friday. These data were actually of average importance before, but since the market now believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, if these data do not support the interest rate cut, it will hit market sentiment and produce large reverse fluctuations, so everyone should still be careful. Policy change periods are usually tossed and tossed.According to CME group's Fed interest rate probability observation tool, the current market believes that there is a 71% probability that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at the September interest rate mee
Market Volatility is coming,Two key opportunities!

Three Key Reasons Why Gold Price Continues To Rebound,What's The Next?

Firstly,On Wednesday, July 3, the US ADP research institute released a report showing that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 150,000 in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and a slight decline from the previous value of 152,000.This is the third consecutive month that ADP employment has declined and the lowest level in four months.PicturesSecond,Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of June 29 in the United States was 238,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000.The highest since January this year.PicturesAt the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Labor also showed that the number of people continuing to apply for u
Three Key Reasons Why Gold Price Continues To Rebound,What's The Next?

What's ahead for the Chinese yuan?

From the perspective of the RMB/USD exchange rate, the low point of the new trading range is around 7.1, while the high point of 7.36 is an important pressure level. The slow rise in the second quarter did provide some initial signals, but for pure technical trends, it is obvious that a new high exchange rate (new low RMB exchange rate) is needed to truly announce the arrival of the trend.Why can't we trade early now? The main reason may come from the progress of the news. From a macro logic point of view, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates within this year. Even if the People's Bank of China has loose expectations, it will not be able to widen the interest rate spread. Secondly, the renminbi itself is not a completely freely convertible product, and it will have its ow
What's ahead for the Chinese yuan?

Super Risky Week Is Coming,The Stock Market Will Be Full Of Fluctuations

This week will usher in a super week of market volatility. First, the large and small non-farm data will be released, then the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Senate meeting, and then the US PMI data will be released. Reference, so it is bound to cause a big swing, everyone should pay attention to the orientation of the news.The impact of the US election on the US stock indexIn the second half of the year, the impact of election news on the stock market will increase. Since the first televised debate between Trump and Biden, the general election situation has undergone subtle changes. This change comes from the internal situation of the two parties in the United States. Compared with the 2020 general election, the Republican Party is actually not very united. Although T
Super Risky Week Is Coming,The Stock Market Will Be Full Of Fluctuations

China Sets Yuan Fix at Weakest Since November,What's Next?

The RMB exchange rate fell to a new low in seven months. What's the next?A few days ago, the dollar continued its strong performance against the renminbi in previous months. On June 26, as the the US Dollar Index soared, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 7.30 intraday, and the lowest point hit 7.308878. This is the first time since November 15, 2023 that it has broken through the above-mentioned mark.As of 07:00 on June 27, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar temporarily rose to the level of 7.298813, but the market is cautious about the prospect of a rebound in the RMB exchange rate. Why has the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar declined recently? In fact, this phenomenon is caused by the interweaving of multiple factors.Chart
China Sets Yuan Fix at Weakest Since November,What's Next?

Why Now Is A Badtime To Invest In Silver,The Potential Risks Is Big

Silver continued to pull back after starting a wave of strong gains in May. Although there have been some fluctuations in the past 3-4 weeks, the overall downward correction trend is very obvious. In particular, it should be noted that during this process, the pull-up-fast shipment mode and the upper shadow line on the weekly line all indicate that the current selling pressure is not over yet.Judging from the weekly silver line, only one week closed up in the past five weeks, and there was also a relatively obvious upper shadow line that week. In the other 4 weeks, half is a real negative line with a drop of 2-3%, and the other half is also a bearish mode. Although the corresponding gold is also a rebound and selling behavior, there is still a positive line supporting the scene on the week
Why Now Is A Badtime To Invest In Silver,The Potential Risks Is Big

U.S. PMI results unexpectedly improved, the next round of market will focus on the Dow Jones Index

The recent market is always very volatile, which tests traders' trading skills. Judging from the current situation, it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate until August-September, waiting for the key signal of the Fed's interest rate path.1. Pay attention to the strength and weakness of the US stock indexAt present, the U.S. stock index is still the same as before in the election year, and the trend is still very stable. However, during the rise of the U.S. stock index, the stock price fluctuations of different listed companies rotated. The previous strength of technology stocks made the transaction too crowded. When other economic data pointed to economic recovery, then funds will withdraw from the crowded transaction and turn to Other indexes, and the PMI index released on Fri
U.S. PMI results unexpectedly improved, the next round of market will focus on the Dow Jones Index

Should You Buy The Oil Price Dip?

After a sharp drop from mid-April to May, international crude oil stopped falling and rebounded in June.Looking forward to the market outlook, we believe that the crude oil market will usher in several positives: the summer U.S. car travel season will drive gasoline consumption, the U.S. will repurchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September will increase due to cooling inflation, and China's economic recovery will bring import demand in the third quarter pick up. The risk factor is that OPEC's resumption of production exceeds expectations, leading to a sharp rebound in supply.Short-term supply contraction, medium-term or recovery expansionIn the second quarter of 2024, global crude oil production will continue to shrink. A
Should You Buy The Oil Price Dip?

Gold Price Predictions For Next Two Weeks,Is Correction Coming To An End?

Expectations and timing changes about the Fed's interest rate cuts have become the main factors for recent market fluctuations, and related core US data have also attracted wide attention. Interestingly, although the risk appetite has not improved significantly, the US stock market, gold and Bitcoin have recently shown a certain degree of divergence.Gold's Second BottomGold refreshed its previous high in May, but then there was a continuous decline. Although it rebounded due to the rapid development of silver, our previous content also predicted a possible rebound and then a fall. The previous round of adjustment lows at 2285 may still be used as the target of short sellers, thus forming a platform model, followed by a new wave of rising prices.Although the point is not far away, this does
Gold Price Predictions For Next Two Weeks,Is Correction Coming To An End?

European Stocks Fall On French Political Risks,Why Is It A Great Reason To Favor US Stocks

This year is an important election year in the world. Many countries have election activities this year, especially in the second half of the year. Such election-related news will continue to appear. However, because the current world economy as a whole is not as good as before, there will be many uncertainties in the election, and even extreme policy commitments made by different political factions in order to attract votes will bring some unexpected changes to the development of global politics and economy. The changes in French politics are only a microcosm of European politics, and other countries are not necessarily very stable. This makes European capital worry, and then further withdraw from the European market and return to the United States. From the perspective of capital flow, t
European Stocks Fall On French Political Risks,Why Is It A Great Reason To Favor US Stocks

Why Did Dollar Move Higher and Gold Tumble On The June FOMC?

Overnight, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting debuted. The Federal Reserve announced in the early hours of June 13, 2024, Beijing time that it would continue to maintain the target range for Federal Funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50%.This is the seventh consecutive time rates have been kept unchanged since September last year.The Fed's decision was in line with market expectations.Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has conducted 11 rate hike, ranging from 25 basis points at the beginning to 50 basis points later, and 75 basis points for 4 consecutive times. After the subsequent rate hike gradually slowed down, so far rate hike has been suspended 7 times in a row, choosing to stay on hold. The market generally expects the Fed's next move to cut interest rat
Why Did Dollar Move Higher and Gold Tumble On The June FOMC?

NDX McClellan Oscillator

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ McClellan OscillatorSimilar to the previous post about $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , the McClellan Oscillator for NDX did not make it above the zero zone, different situation at the end of 2023 as highlighted in green.This analysis emphasizes more in the divergence between price and the oscillator (blue arrows).Divergences can last for long, the trigger os a divergence is in price action, we'll learn soon if the two consecutive indecision candles above the Bollinger Band are meaningful.If so, a visit to 20DMA is expected, as price followed the highlighted tops (red arrows). $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 -
NDX McClellan Oscillator

BTC Markets: Correction Is Coming To An End.

This year, as the United States unexpectedly passed the review of ETFs of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the cryptocurrency market also ushered in a new round of quotations. However, driven by positive factors such as halving, BTC itself has not performed well in the past quarter. After setting a new record high, the price has basically remained in the range of 60,000 to 70,000 US dollars and fluctuated sharply.The good news is that the market cannot stay sideways forever, and such a breakthrough is expected soon.Mode 1: Ready to go, make a rapid breakthroughFor the Bitcoin, the relatively large consensus is still that the bull market is not over, so the difference may lie in the form in which the correction is ended. After the BTC price broke through the 60,000 mark, it has completed a completed z
BTC Markets: Correction Is Coming To An End.

Gold Tumbled On Solid Nonfarm Report,Great Opportunity For Buying The Dip?

After the release of thenon-farm data in the United States, it caused large fluctuations in the market. Let's talk about the data itself first. Before the release of the data, there was a usually inconspicuous data, which was the data on China's gold reserves. Since China has continued to increase its gold holdings in the past 18 months, the market before the release of the data It is not believed that the data has changed too much, but the result is that China did not increase its holdings of gold in May. After the release of the data, the price of gold plummeted. After the release of the unexpected non-farm data, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut fell again, making other commodities begin correction accordingly.The impact on precious metalsChina's gold reserves no
Gold Tumbled On Solid Nonfarm Report,Great Opportunity For Buying The Dip?

Will gold's rally reverse? Depends on three factors

From April to early May, after the price of gold hit a record high, it began to enter a shock adjustment.Three major factors lead to short-term adjustment of goldSince late May, gold has undergone significant adjustments. The adjustment pressure mainly comes from three aspects: First, the risk aversion sentiment has cooled recently, and the US dollar liquidity problem that the market was worried about has not yet appeared. However, the safe-haven demand for gold has not yet increased. Since late May, the price of gold has adjusted sharply, but the VIX index, which reflects market panic, has not risen sharply, and remained at a low level of 13.11 as of June 3. Looking back at history, the VIX index broke through 20 to correspond to panic in the market, and the price of gold will be boosted
Will gold's rally reverse? Depends on three factors