YMmain (E-mini Dow Jones - main 2312)
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12-07 16:00

US Yields Have Gone Too Far For The Fed,Correction Is Coming.

During the week from November 28 to December 4, the market sentiment calmed down, and the yield of 10-year US bonds once again faced the test of the FOMC meeting in December and fell into shock. The S&P 500 index fluctuated slightly upward, with the sectors rising more and falling less. Only the IT, communication services and energy sectors fell, while other sectors closed up, among which the real estate, finance and industry sectors rose by more than 2%.Table 2: The weekly rise and fall of the S&P 500 industry indexDuring the week from November 29th to December 5th, with the continuous digestion of dovish sentiment and the approach of the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market was worried about over-pricing US Treasury yields, and the risk appetite in the equity market declined.
US Yields Have Gone Too Far For The Fed,Correction Is Coming.

Gold prices Soared To Six-Month High,What's Next?

The gold’s record high finally arrived on Monday. After the gap up, the gold price is currently at 2152, which is significantly higher than the previous high, which means that a new bull market rising to 2200-2300 has started. For precious metal traders, whether the confirmation of the trend can bring silver to make up for the rise may be a trading opportunity that can be paid attention to in the next stage.After half a year's correction of the previous triple top form of gold futures, the current breakthrough is very ideal in both price and time period, so the probability of effective breakthrough is far greater than false breakthrough.Long ago, according to the long-term graphic structure of gold, we predicted that the ultimate goal of gold price in this big bull market can be seen at le
Gold prices Soared To Six-Month High,What's Next?

Dow Futures $YMmain Sequence Remains Bullish

Chart of The Day 5 December: Dow Futures $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2312(YMmain)$ sequence remains bullishDow Futures (YM_F) shows incomplete sequence from 10.3.2022 low favoring further upside. Rally from 10.3.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.3.2022 low, wave (1) ended at 35228 and dips in wave (2) ended at 32409. Wave (3) higher is in progress as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 34315 and dips in wave 2 ended at 33913. Index then resumed higher in wave 3 towards 36338.The 45 minutes chart below shows the move higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 35456 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 35309. Up from wave ((ii)), the Index is nesting in wave (i) at 35
Dow Futures $YMmain Sequence Remains Bullish

The Downside Correction Of Gold Price Maybe Just beginning,Where Will Gold Be Heading?

Near the end of the year, the market lacked special events, and the drama of hyping the starting time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last year was staged again. Anyway, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates one day. The difference is only a matter of time. If the market news lacks bright spots, it will always be hyped. Therefore, it is not a big problem for anyone to speak and analyze. Anyway, it is just a guess. Just follow it. Technical analysis will be more useful in the recent market.The rotation effect of US stock index is still effectiveI remember that the previous post mentioned to you that when the US stock index enters the upward trend, the relationship between different indexes usually rotates, and the weak indexes in the early stage always have a moment to make
The Downside Correction Of Gold Price Maybe Just beginning,Where Will Gold Be Heading?

Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?

With the publication of comments from two important Fed directors overnight, the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 is more intense.First,Governor Waller, one of the Fed's toughest officials, said that the policy is in place to return the inflation rate to the Fed's target of 2%, indicating that policy makers may not need to rate hike again.Second,Bowman, another Fed governor, said she is still willing to support rate hike if inflation stagnates, but did not express her support for next month's rate hike.It should be said that the speeches of the above-mentioned two directors with permanent voting rights are dovish and hawkish, and the market directly interprets them as all dovish,That is to say, the Federal Reserve has recognized the cowardice and can't bear i
Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?

Pay Attention To The Risk Of Stock Index Correction Recently

Driven by the easing of China-US relations and the relatively calm market news, US stocks rose steadily in the coming month, while the Nasdaq, as the leader, was even more brilliant, breaking through the high level in July this year. However, with the decline of core stocks last week and the near high of S&P and Dow, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of recent stock index correction.In the watch list, one of the most important indicators is naturally Nvidia, a stock led by AI concept with unlimited scenery this year. We have also highlighted it before when it dropped from its high position and tested the neck line of the head and shoulder. In short, NVIDIA's trend can be regarded as the leading indicator of Nasdaq to a great extent, and at the same time indirectly affects th
Pay Attention To The Risk Of Stock Index Correction Recently

Why it's Time to Consider Investing in Gold

Palestine and Israel exchanged hostages and held a short ceasefire for 4 days. It is not known whether the ceasefire will continue after that. If the geopolitical crisis escalates again, the risk aversion in the market will be boosted again. If the risk aversion escalates again, it may be an opportunity for gold to effectively break through 2000 points.Looking at gold from a technical point of viewWhether the gold price can effectively break through 2000 will be an important signal of whether the gold price will go bullish again. At present, the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end, and the interest rate is no longer bad news to suppress gold, which means that there is no additional bad news, and when the bullish news appears, the performance of gold price will be mor
Why it's Time to Consider Investing in Gold

The S&P 500 Rocketed On Bets Of Peak US Interest Rates, Strong Earnings,What‘s The Next’

After the CPI data of October was released in the United States, the the US Dollar Index fell sharply, and the three major stock indexes in the United States rose sharply. The market generally predicted that the Federal Reserve might start the process of cutting interest rates by the end of next year at the latest. According to historical performance, the Federal Reserve will have a negative impact on the global capital market during the rate hike, especially the US stock market, and will play a certain role in promoting the recovery of the capital market during the Fed's interest rate cut.In this way, it is easy to understand the strong short-term performance of US stocks, but from the perspective of the past year, the performance of the S&P 500 index is not satisfactory.Figure 1: Tre
The S&P 500 Rocketed On Bets Of Peak US Interest Rates, Strong Earnings,What‘s The Next’

Gold Prices Set to Soar As Investors Still Be Looking For Safe Haven

Gold fell to correction in November after rising continuously, but silver, which had been tepid before, walked out of the bullish positive trend last week. The downward trend line resistance since the first quarter of this year is currently suppressing the attack of silver bulls. If the suppression can be successfully broken through, precious metals are expected to make greater progress, and gold is even expected to reach a new high at the end of this yearFrom the weekly chart of silver, we can see that the current silver price as a whole is still within a certain range of fluctuation in the past three years, and does not have the ability to soar. Nevertheless, the more standard flag-shaped finishing combined with the previous rebound momentum still gives people a feeling of gaining moment
Gold Prices Set to Soar As Investors Still Be Looking For Safe Haven

The Investment Value Of OIL Is Gradually Increasing After China–US Relations Was Improved

The great appreciation of RMB last week shows that China-US relations have entered a thawing period, which has curbed the outflow of foreign capital and even enhanced the enthusiasm of foreign capital to enter China in the future. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB is an important trend, which may be beneficial to the economies and stock markets of China and the United States continuously.First, if the economy continues to be favorable, the oil price is not pessimisticWhen the world's two major economies work together again, the expectation of economic recession will further decline. At this time, it is a potential positive for industrial products in the medium and long term. Therefore, oil prices should not be too pessimistic, and should not be changed by some recent declines. Of course,
The Investment Value Of OIL Is Gradually Increasing After China–US Relations Was Improved

Yen Fell To Weakest Level This Year,The Depreciation trend May Not End In The Near Future.

Despite the tepid performance of the US Dollar Index in the past few weeks, this still cannot stop the yen's continued decline.In the 11 months from 2023 to the present, the yen closed up in only 2 months, This shows the determination and motivation of the market to sell yen. On the one hand, the lack of real safe-haven demand in the market makes the yen go unattended. On the other hand, more crucially, the expected central bank turn (ultra-loose to normal) has not appeared.Ueda Kazuo's latest speech in November made the trend of the yen even more worrying. He stated that it is necessary to cut interest rates cautiously, and relaxing ultra-loose monetary policy is a severe challenge. Earlier, the Bank of Japan challenged YCC policy again, and raising the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds to
Yen Fell To Weakest Level This Year,The Depreciation trend May Not End In The Near Future.
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11-09

Oil on track for sharpest weekly decline as demand concerns, What's Next?

On November 3rd, the United States released the latest non-farm payrolls data, which showed that the non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, which is expected to be 180,000. The number of new jobs in September was revised down from 336,000 to 297,000, and the number of new jobs in October was only half of the number of new jobs in September, which was the second lowest since 2022.The number of new non-farm jobs slowed down beyond expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a high level since January 2022, which indicates that the hot American labor market began to cool down.The news came that the strong hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve might be restrained in the face of facts, the rate hike policy might be stopped, and even there was the possibility of lowering intere
Oil on track for sharpest weekly decline as demand concerns, What's Next?

The US Dollar Index is expected to launch a second round of correction

In the past week, the news was relatively calm, and most assets also showed a revised market trend. Among them, the US Dollar Index fell back after failing to hit the high level for the second time.At present, the probability of walking out of the second leg is increasing.In the process, risky assets are expected to maintain a good momentum, but the US dollar will eventually find the bottom and show strength again.The sharp decline of US dollar in the Candlestick Chart is accompanied by the latest non-farm data, and the superposition of technical and news makes the short-term break more effective. On the weekly chart, it is obvious that the Concealing Swallow structure had come into being .The theoretical goal of double-top shape points at least below 104. At the current price and time spa
The US Dollar Index is expected to launch a second round of correction

The worst time for S&P 500 has passed

The high-risk period from August to October, which I has been emphasized to everyone, is once again perfectly verified. Just after October, the US stock index showed its biggest weekly rise this year. And this is the result of multiple good news resonances at time point. Therefore, it is considered that the highest risk period of US stock index has passed, and the follow-up is to find opportunities for callback intervention.There is no suspense in the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in November, and no matter how hawkish Powell's wording is, there will not be much room for the market. In addition, there may be an important economic event of the first China-US meeting in mid-November,Therefore, it is easy to understand the concentrated outbreak of market bulls. Last w
The worst time for S&P 500 has passed

BOJ Relaxes Grip On Rates, Should We Brace Ourselves For The Yen's Soar?

The Bank of Japan, which has always been a maverick, once again adjusted the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, further liberalized the original long-term interest rate ceiling, and set 1% as the reference line, which means that the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy may have an inflection point.Japan's outstanding economic development momentum is slowing down, and the drag of high inflation on household consumption and real estate is becoming more and more obvious, while the contribution of net exports is facing uncertainty with the slowdown of global economic growth. At present, the Bank of Japan is faced with a dilemma between stabilizing interest rates and protecting exchange rates. With the increase of the possibility of slowing down the US economy in the fourth quarter and the adju
BOJ Relaxes Grip On Rates, Should We Brace Ourselves For The Yen's Soar?

Market Forecast:The Next Round Of Nvidia Shares Falling Maybe On The Way

The trajectory of US stocks last week is roughly the same as that predicted. Under the continuous pressure of star stocks, the stock index also fell synchronously. Although from a technical point of view, NVIDIA's head and shoulder break may mean further downward and partial filling behavior, thus dragging down the market to continue downward revision, some subtle news changes also reveal pessimistic optimism.Continuing the selling pressure brought by chip rumors in the previous two weeks, NVIDIA finally broke down last week. Whether this is the final and effective break is expected to be concluded this week. According to the situation of NASDAQ, the probability of breaking the position is quite high. According to the theoretical goal of the form standard, after the successful break, the d
Market Forecast:The Next Round Of Nvidia Shares Falling Maybe On The Way

Should We Reconsider Buying Treasury Bonds?

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and tends to expand. Generally speaking, things have not developed in the direction of calming down the incident, and it is possible that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will develop into turmoil on the scale of the "Arab Spring" more than ten years ago, and the uncertainty of its impact on the world economy will become increasing. At present, the relatively good news is that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the United States will bring hope for the first meeting of two largest economies in the future, and the warming of U.S.-China Relations will bring important thrust to the development of the world economy. So what opportunities do these events bring to investment?First, the oil price is difficult to calm downIn the current world ene
Should We Reconsider Buying Treasury Bonds?

Stocks Under Pressure as Credit Crunch May Continue In The Fourth Quarter

Recently, the global financial market has experienced great fluctuations, and US stocks have turned downward again since mid-October, continuing the downward trend since the end of July. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 index of the United States has dropped by 7.8% compared with the high set on July 27th, and the Nasdaq index, which is sensitive to monetary policy, has dropped by more than 9%.The U.S. economy also shows strong resilience, because the original high interest rate environment will obviously cool down the U.S. economy. However, due to the negative impact of fiscal expansion on liquidity contraction caused by quantitative tightening (QT) and credit contraction caused by high interest rates, the liquidity of the U.S. dollar has not converged significantly. Looking ahead to t
Stocks Under Pressure as Credit Crunch May Continue In The Fourth Quarter
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10-26

Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate May Squeeze The Market For Much Longer Time Than We Expect

The first chart below is the price change chart of American 10-year bond futures (ZN), and the other one is the price trend of American Nasdaq stock index futures (NQ) in one year.As of October 20th, the 10-year bond interest rate in the United States has reached the highest level since the late 1970s: 5%, when the Great Depression was caused by global inflation because of the energy crisis.Last month, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street investors shudder when it said at a news conference after the open market meeting that US interest rates might be higher and last longer.Obviously, the negative impact of high interest rates caused by inflation on the stock market is far from over. 2024 will be a more challenging year for interest rates and the stock market.Historical facts have proved th
Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate May Squeeze The Market For Much Longer Time Than We Expect

Stock Market Forecast: Is the Next 10% Up or Down After NVDA‘s Breakdown

In the past two weeks, the chaotic fighting mode among major assets in the financial market has not subsided. On the contrary, with the change of news, the traditional mode of risky assets and safe-haven assets dancing together has intensified. Among them, Nvidia, which was affected by Sino-US chip relations, was accidentally shot. The technical risk of breaking the position also brought greater downward pressure to the US stock index.In the middle of last week, the news about restricting the sale of high-end graphics cards came out, which not only made the domestic graphics card scalpers who had been silent for many years eager to move, but also made NVIDIA, a hot US AI concept stock in the first half of the year, fall continuously. Although the follow-up "rumor-dispelling" retail is not
Stock Market Forecast: Is the Next 10% Up or Down After NVDA‘s Breakdown