The U.S. soybean production is poised to set a record, with ongoing weather uncertainties and the largest buyer yet to return, alongside the start of South American planting. Amid this mix of bullish and bearish factors, U.S. soybeans face both upward pressure and downside support. The recently released September U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report has failed to provide upward momentum for soybeans. After more than a year of consolidation, the question remains: when will U.S. soybeans break out?The chart shows the daily candlestick patterns for the continuous front-month contract of CBOT soybean futures.The so-called "weather market" remains calm, leaving the short-term direction for soybeans uncertain. Typically, July and August are periods of intense trading on

This week, financial market news has been relatively scarce. This is understandable since previous updates were quite intense, making the current news seem much milder. Although the overall market lacks notable developments, the agricultural products sector has seen significant news—particularly at a critical juncture for U.S. soybeans (post-June)—which inevitably demands attention.While reviewing industry websites over the weekend, I realized that China-U.S. agricultural trade has been interrupted for a substantial period. China has not purchased U.S. soybeans for a long time. However, as the world’s largest soybean buyer, China’s recovering consumption means relying solely on purchases from Brazil and Argentina can no longer meet its demand. Back when China-U.S. trade was normalized, Chi

Fed Chairman Jay Powell shocked the market yesterday when he implied that the final rate that the Fed hikes to will be higher than the market was thinking. At the same time, he said that they might slow down the rate of increases.This shocked the market because they believed that the Fed would be finished tightening by March of next year at about 5%. Now they are thinking much higher, perhaps even to 6%.The market actually believes that inflation will start to come down pretty quickly by March 2023 but take a year or so to decline to the Fed’s target of 2%.But Jay is right and the market is wrong, from one perspective.There are several problems: Inflation may come down next year but very little The recession will cause governments to boost transfer payment keeping inflation high The Fed Fu

What is Black Sea Deal and how will it affect all of us? Some fact to know: • Russia and Ukraine account for about a third of the world’s wheat exports • 19% of the world’s fertilizer exports • 15% of the world’s corn exports Meat production and consumption are key in Asia and for many Asian countries, grains such as wheat, corn, and soybeans are needed for animal feed to produce beef, pork, poultry as well as fish. And fertilizer for crops production. Over the weekend, the Russian foreign ministry said it “can no longer guarantee the safety of civilian dry cargo ships participating in the Black Sea Grain Initiative and will suspend its implementation from today for an indefinite period.” “Consumers throughout Asia-Pacific should expect to pay more for basic foodstuffs and also for meat.”