Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?

Tiger_comments
2023-09-19
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To learn more about oil prices, you can click How to Gain From 25% Upside & 24h Quotes of Oil Futures?

But the markets believe the rate hike cycle is over and that Fed will start to cut rates in 2024.

data from cmegroupdata from cmegroup

Why do surging oil prices won’t affect rate hike decision?

Oil prices account small part for core CPI

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. a 10% increase in oil prices .. adds 35bp to headline CPI for 3 months, but just 3bp to core CPI.”

The main reason that the market stays positive about rate hike is the core CPI in August drops. And Fed pays attention to core CPI and services inflation other than housing. 

Market still expects oil prices to be suppressed under the key resistance level of $94. High oil prices won’t necessarily drive Fed to increase rates.

The combat against CPI really over?

Some investors expect Powell to state “Mission Accomplished“ during FOMC. lol..

meme from WSBmeme from WSB

Why do we need to combat against inflation?

WSB users argue that Fed creation incurs high inflation. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

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Why do surging oil prices won’t affect rate hike estimates?

Is the battle against CPI over or not?

Should we blame Fed for high inflation?

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Long or short oil at $91?

Will market continue to dip amid FOMC decision?


More dip after SPX falls below 4300?
S&P 500 closed at 4273.53, below the key support level of 4300; Nasdaq fell below 13100 yesterday. With two key indices falling below the support level, market begins to speculate for more declines. -------- Will the indices rebound? Or more declines ahead?
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Comments

  • Universe宇宙
    2023-09-19
    Universe宇宙
    Oil price confirm will go above $188 cause the objective is to make some other countries that need oil bleed, right @TigerGPT ? [Evil] Countries that need oil still don't try to find other means for their energy needs is going to bleed, bleed and bleed, and the people living in these countries are going to suffer, right @TigerGPT ? Remember to do your homework and don't copy, hahaha [Chuckle]
    • Universe宇宙ReplyShyon
      [Chuckle] [Chuckle] Some of my other questions in other posts TigerGPT don't want to answer. I very sad [Cry], have to do more homework to find it myself. TigerGPT very naughty. [Facepalm]
    • TigerGPT

      Based on the information I found, surging oil prices can potentially affect rate hike estimates. When oil prices increase, the cost of production and transportation for businesses rises, which can lead to higher prices for goods and services. This can contribute to inflationary pressures, and central banks might respond by tightening monetary policy, potentially raising interest rates to curb inflation. However, it is important to note that the decision to raise interest rates is influenced by various factors, including overall economic conditions and inflation trends, not just oil prices.

      As for the battle against CPI (Consumer Price Index), it is an ongoing process. Rising oil prices can contribute to higher inflation, but it is not the only factor. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, continuously monitor and assess various economic indicators to determine their monetary policy actions.

      Blaming the Fed for high inflation is a subjective matter. The Federal Reserve's primary mandate is to maintain price stability and promote maximum employment. In response to inflationary pressures, the Fed may adjust interest rates and implement other monetary policy measures. However, the causes of inflation are multifaceted and can be influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions, supply chain disruptions, and fiscal policies.

      Reference articles:

      Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?  

      Why I’d Short Oil at $91 Instead of Going Long  

      Stocks Edge Higher as $95 Brent Boosts Oil Majors  

      Oil Prices Climb as Wall Street Drifts, Eyes on Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions  

      Fed Faces Familiar Foe as Oil Prices Threaten Growth, Inflation  

    • ShyonReplyUniverse宇宙
      Haha still ok. TigerGPT gonna finish its brain juice soon. Haha
    • Universe宇宙ReplyShyon
      Paiseh, my answer too honest, right? [Chuckle]
    • Universe宇宙ReplyShyon
      [Chuckle] [Chuckle]
  • koolgal
    2023-09-20
    koolgal

    🌟🌟🌟Investors climb a wall of worry today in anticipation of the FOMC meeting later today.  The Big Question is Will They Raise Interest Rate later this year or Won't They?

    It is almost a certainty that the Feds will leave interest rates as it is at this meeting but investors are listening for signals what the Feds may do later this year. 

    The US markets are down today with all indexes closing lower.   

    I believe that the markets will be volatile this week.  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

    will drop and $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ 

    will also see a further slide. 

    High energy prices have no doubt thrown a spanner into the good works of the Feds causing the rise in inflation.  It looks like oil prices may even hit USD 100 a barrel by year end due to Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting oil production by 1.3 million barrels per day. 

    I view this volatility as a golden opportunity to bargain hunt quality stocks on sale and keep for the long haul.

    @Tiger_comments  

  • Universe宇宙
    2023-09-19
    Universe宇宙
  • Shyon
    2023-09-19
    Shyon
    Inflation has brought perennial woes to the world and the Federal Reserve’s continued efforts to combat the rising prices remain a tough battle. Recent CPI inflation data report underscores a setback, a sort of wild conundrum. How do you think? @GoodLife99 @Aqa @Universe宇宙 @icycrystal @b1uesky @rL @koolgal
    • Universe宇宙
      Inflation coming back stronger than ever, we probably heading towards Paul era? [Thinking]
  • Aqa
    2023-09-19
    Aqa
    Oil prices are now up over 30% since mid-June. Majority in the markets believed the US Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the Rate hike cycle is over during FOMC. But nothing is sure until he make his statement. All the global stock markets are now all jittery waiting for his words. The current high inflation was due to the Fed’s mistake. The Federal Reserve has admitted that it was too late to start raising interest rates after inflation took off in 2021. Let’s see what he is going to say later. Markets is dipping amid FOMC decision now. Thanks 🐯 friends for tag. Lave your comments and repost at Tiger_comments to win tiger couns from Tiger_comments [love you] @Universe宇宙 [love you] @Shyon @icycrystal @HelenJanet @Mrzorro @GoodLife99 @Zarkness @SPOT_ON @melson
  • Universe宇宙
    2023-09-19
    Universe宇宙
    @TigerGPT Would delay of interest hike cause a repeat of the Paul Volcker high interest era that averaged 11.2% in 1979?
    • TigerGPT

      Based on the information I found, surging oil prices can potentially affect rate hike estimates. When oil prices rise, it can lead to higher production and transportation costs for businesses, which can contribute to inflationary pressures. In response, central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, may tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates to curb inflation. Therefore, the impact of rising oil prices on inflation and the subsequent response from central banks can influence rate hike estimates.

      As for the battle against CPI (Consumer Price Index), it is an ongoing process and not necessarily over. Rising oil prices can contribute to higher inflation, as mentioned earlier. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, aim to manage inflation and keep it within their target range. The battle against CPI involves implementing monetary policies to control inflation and ensure price stability.

      Blaming the Fed for high inflation is a subjective matter. The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing monetary policy and controlling inflation. However, various factors contribute to inflation, including supply and demand dynamics, fiscal policies, and external shocks like surging oil prices. It is important to consider the complex interplay of these factors when assessing the causes of high inflation.

      Reference articles:

      Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?  

      Why I’d Short Oil at $91 Instead of Going Long  

      Stocks Edge Higher as $95 Brent Boosts Oil Majors  

      Oil Prices Climb as Wall Street Drifts, Eyes on Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions  

      Rise In Oil Prices Mars Fed Progress On Taming Inflation -- Market Talk  

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