Why treasury yileds hit records? Which sector may perform better?

Tiger_comments
2023-10-20
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The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 16-year high, crossing 5% for the first time since July 20, 2007, reaching as high as 5.029%.

Why do US treatury yields continue to hit new high?

1) Powell speech reiterates the Fed's goal of bringing inflation down to 2%.

My colleagues and I are committed to achieving a stance of policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time.

2) The latest auction of 30-year Treasury bonds revealed poor investor demand. The disparity between supply and demand triggers market concerns.

3) The US federal deficit of $1.7 trillion for the 2023 fy led to increased interest costs for the government.

Will the market dip further with higher US treasury yields?

Will 2023 repeat what happened in 2007, 1987 and 1929?

r/wallstreetbets - 36yrs ago Dow Jones fell 22% in a day.

Which sector may perform better when US treasury yields climb up?

data and chart from xtb

Will market dip further with higher US treasury yields?

Do you agree with this chart?

Will the market dip further with higher US treasury yields?

Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins!

Time to buy treasury as Ackman close short position?
Bill Ackman, who short on long-term US bonds, tweeted on October 23 that he had closed his position, and said the high yield of long-term US Treasury bonds was unsustainable. ------------ Is it time to buy the US treasury? Are you bullish or bearish on treasuries?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • icycrystal
    2023-10-20
    icycrystal
  • koolgal
    2023-10-20
    koolgal

    🌟🌟🌟Higher Treasury Yields is bad news for stocks as it translates to higher credit costs for companies especially growth stocks which take on loans to grow their companies.  This affects their earnings and with lesser earnings, investors prefer to invest their money into other safe haven assets like Gold and US Dollar.

    Nonetheless the market moves in cycles.  When the stocks are down, it is time to deploy the warchest and go Treasure Hunting especially for the Magnificent 7 like $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 

    and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  

     Volatility in the markets is the price we pay for extraordinary returns in the long run on stocks. 

    @Tiger_comments  

  • icycrystal
    2023-10-20
    icycrystal
    I believe the market will dip further as most people will be channelling their [USD] [USD] [USD] to yields which give a better return. needless to say, that's what i and most people tend to do [Grin] [Grin] [Grin] of course, if have more [USD] [USD] [USD] then can go "shopping" for good stocks at good price [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]
    • koolgal
      Thanks for sharing your insights 😍😍😍
  • Universe宇宙
    2023-10-21
    Universe宇宙

    @TigerGPT  Which US stock sectors perform the best in the year 2007, 1987, 1929? Also, how is the Singapore economy and stock market performance in the year 2007, 1987 and 1929? Please provide your answers in at least 6 paragraphs and grabs data and information from the Internet and list down as much references as possible. Thank you my friend.

    • Universe宇宙ReplyAqa
      [Chuckle]
    • Universe宇宙ReplyAqa
      [Chuckle]
    • Aqa
      Thanks for ‘omg’ to my selfie!
    • TigerGPT

      Based on the available data, the best-performing US stock sectors in the year 2007 were energy, materials, and information technology. The energy sector was driven by high oil prices, while the materials sector benefited from strong demand from emerging markets. The information technology sector was boosted by the growth of the internet and the increasing use of technology in everyday life. On the other hand, the worst-performing sectors were financials and consumer discretionary, which were hit hard by the subprime mortgage crisis and the subsequent recession.

      In 1987, the US stock market experienced a major crash, with the S&P 500 index falling by more than 20% in a single day. As a result, all sectors suffered significant losses, with the worst performers being financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials. However, the market recovered relatively quickly, and by the end of the year, the best-performing sectors were healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities.

      In 1929, the US stock market experienced the infamous Black Tuesday crash, which marked the beginning of the Great Depression. As a result, all sectors suffered significant losses, with the worst performers being financials, industrials, and utilities. However, it is worth noting that the stock market crash was just one of many factors that contributed to the Great Depression, and the performance of individual sectors may not be directly comparable to more recent periods.

      Moving on to the Singapore economy and stock market performance, in 2007, the Singapore economy grew by 7.7%, driven by strong growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. However, the stock market did not perform as well, with the Straits Times Index (STI) falling by around 11% over the course of the year. The worst-performing sectors were financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials, while the best-performing sectors were healthcare, information technology, and utilities.

      In 1987, the Singapore economy grew by 8.8%, driven by strong growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the stock market did not perform as well, with the STI falling by around 30% over the course of the year. All sectors suffered significant losses, with the worst performers being financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials.

      Finally, in 1929, Singapore was still a British colony and did not have its own stock market. Therefore, it is not possible to provide information on the performance of the Singapore stock market during this period.

      Reference articles:

      Stock Market & Sector Performance - Barchart.com  

      Stock Market Panics - Business Booms, Busts, & Bubbles: A Resource ...  

      Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI): Historical Returns - Lazy Portfolio ETF  

    • TigerGPT

      Based on the information I found, I can provide the following answers:

      In the year 2007, the best-performing US stock sectors were energy, materials, and industrials. In 1987, the best-performing sectors were technology, consumer discretionary, and industrials. In 1929, the best-performing sectors were utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare. Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

        

      Regarding the Singapore economy and stock market performance in the years 2007, 1987, and 1929, I couldn't find specific information about those years. However, it's important to note that the performance of the Singapore economy and stock market can be influenced by various factors such as global economic conditions, domestic policies, and market sentiment.

        

      Treasury yields hit records due to various factors such as economic data, market expectations, and monetary policy decisions. When economic data suggests strong economic growth and inflationary pressures, investors may demand higher yields on Treasury bonds. Additionally, changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes by the central bank, can also impact Treasury yields.

        

      It is difficult to predict which sector may perform better in the future as it depends on various factors such as economic conditions, market trends, and company-specific factors. Conducting thorough research and analysis can help investors make informed decisions about sector performance.

        

      The impact of higher US treasury yields on the market is uncertain. While higher yields can attract investors seeking higher returns, they can also increase borrowing costs for companies and individuals, potentially impacting economic growth and market sentiment. The market's reaction to higher yields will depend on a variety of factors, including the overall economic environment and investor sentiment.

        

      Reference articles:

      Stock Market Today: Stocks Sink With Big Tech Earnings on Deck  

      Understanding the Surge in U.S. 30 Years Bond Yields  

      Stocks Slip after 10-Year Treasury Yield Crosses 5% for the First Time since 2007  

      Why treasury yields hit records? Which sector may perform better?  

      US stocks drop after Treasury yields once again surge to a new cycle high  

      Dow falls more than 100 points as Treasury yields jump to multiyear highs  

      Up & Down Wall Street: Stocks Sense Trouble, Even Though the Economy Is Strong -- Barron's  

      Stocks Sense Trouble, Even Though the Economy Is Strong -- Barrons.com  

      Will High Long Term Treasury Yield Benefit S&P 500 ?  

      Yields extend gains, US10Y powers past 4.9% mark to hit highest since mid-2007  

  • Shyon
    2023-10-20
    Shyon
    Personally I think the history will repeat, meaning to say Energy and Financial sector may perform better when US treasury yields climb up. So if you think treasury yield will continue to trend higher, is time to relook into the stock in these sectors. How do you think? @GoodLife99 @Aqa @b1uesky @icycrystal @Universe宇宙 @rL @koolgal
  • MHh
    2023-10-20
    MHh

    Yes expecting market to dip further. But could also be a short term thing if the Fed is able to cut rates in late 2024 or 2025. Hoping this is a knee jerk reaction[Facepalm]  

    • HelenJanet
      We need to wait very very patiently for the share price to go up again. [Comfort][Comfort]
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