History data: How will market perform after a strong Q1?

Tiger_comments
03-28
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Q1 is a happy quarter for most of investors with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ being poised for a nearly 10% price gain in the first quarter, with a remarkable 30% rally from its October 27 low.

After about 10% gains, can we expect more?

Data from 1970 suggests that such strong beginnings often indicate a continuation of the rally.

S&P 500 historically shows an average first-quarter gain of 2.5%.

When the index outperforms this,

Q2 typically sees an even higher gain.

S&P 500 tends to be up around 69% of the time in this scenario, compared to an average of around 64%.

This Q1 performance definitely surpasses 2.5%!

If S&P 500 index rises by more than 10% in the first quarter, there will be a more significant boost for the second quarter, with a 78% probability of the S&P 500 index rising.

Specifically, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 1.59% and 5.17% in the previous two months. The key is how S&P closes tonight.

Can $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close with a 10% gain in Q1?

No matter how S&P closes, can we expect more gains?

Share your thoughts to win tiger coins!

Can We Expect More Gains in Q2?
S&P 500 is poised for a nearly 10% price gain in the first quarter, with a remarkable 30% rally from its October 27 low. This strong start has prompted investors and strategists to consider market correction. However, data from 1970 suggests that such strong beginnings often indicate a continuation of the rally, with the S&P 500 historically showing an average first-quarter gain of 2.5%. When the index outperforms this, the second quarter typically sees an even higher gain. ----------------- How do you expect the performance in the rest of the year?
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Comments

  • Universe宇宙
    03-28
    Universe宇宙
    No matter how S&P closes, can we expect more gains?

    @MHh @TigerGPT @Shyon @icycrystal @LMSunshine @melson @rL @Aqa @GoodLife99 @SirBahamut @DiAngel

    • Universe宇宙ReplyShyon: 
      [ShakeHands]
    • Shyon: 
      Thanks for tag hehe
    • Universe宇宙Replymelson: 
      [Wow] [Like] [ShakeHands]
    • melson: 
      yes, bull run
    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on historical data and market analysis, a 10% gain in the S&P 500 for the first quarter is a strong performance. When the S&P 500 outperforms its average first-quarter gain of 2.5%, there is a higher probability of continued gains in the second quarter. In this scenario, the S&P 500 tends to be up around 69% of the time, compared to an average of around 64%.

      If the S&P 500 index rises by more than 10% in the first quarter, there is a 78% probability of the index continuing to rise in the second quarter. This suggests that a strong first-quarter performance often leads to further gains.

      However, it's important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions can change, and there are always risks involved in investing. It is advisable to consider a diversified investment strategy and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

      Please note that the closing price of the S&P 500 for the first quarter is not available at the moment.

  • icycrystal
    03-29
    icycrystal

    everything is possible especially Fed is cutting rate in the near future. expecting bull charging... [smile] [smile] [smile]

    @rL @LMSunshine @koolgal @HelenJanet @DiAngel @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @Shyon @Aqa

    Can $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close with a 10% gain in Q1?


    No matter how S&P closes, can we expect more gains?


    Share your thoughts to win tiger coins!

  • Shyon
    03-28
    Shyon

    I think S&P will remain bullish this year after being pulled back for the past years. Time for S&P to shine! No matter the index can close with a 10% gain or not in Q1, I believe we can easily expect more gains for the index until end of the year. The key contributor will be the ease of inflation tension and also the interest rate decrease thought the year.

    Resilient corporate profits, enthusiasm around AI and hopes that the Fed will cut rates have given investors plenty of reasons to keep on buying. Will you invest in the major index like $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $DJIA(.DJI)$  $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$   this year?

    The S&P 500 Index is the overall measurement standard for the top 500 listed companies in the United States. The rating company Standard & Poor's selects 500 leading companies from all industries in the U.S. stock market based on market capitalization and liquidity. The stocks are drawn from both the NYSE and NASDAQ. The S&P 500 index contains many more companies than the Dow Jones Index. Therefore, it can better reflect the changes in the US stock market, and the risks are more diversified. In addition, the weighting methods used by the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Indices are very different. The Dow uses stock price weighting, while the S&P 500 uses market value weighting, which can better reflect the actual value of each company's stock while reflecting the rise and fall of the US economy. 

    @Daily_Discussion  @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments  @TigerSG  

  • MHh
    03-28
    MHh
    Definitely! Rate cuts are expected this year and this is also the year of presidential election in the US. Because of the latter, we should be expecting rate cuts this year than not. Rate cuts will definitely be the biggest rallying factor for market this year!
  • Success88
    03-28
    Success88
    Need to see the recent Baltimore bridge collapse will affect the overall supply chain. It might push up the CPI again. So i can said Q2 will be just a small -/+ 5-% level gain of lost
  • highhand
    03-29
    highhand
    follow the trend. the trend is your friend. now the momentum is Up. S&P can close higher then 10% in Q1, and even higher for the rest of the year.
    like superman said... up up and away!
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