US Treasury Yield Hits 4%! Will Rate Cut Estimates Force Market Down?

Comments

• Shyon

  10-24

  Shyon
  Current economic conditions suggest that US Treasury yields are likely to rise in the near term due to inflation concerns and changing rate cut expectations. Speculation around former President Trump potentially winning the election raises worries about a resurgence of inflation from his tax cut policies. If inflation persists, investors may demand higher yields to offset the loss of purchasing power.

  Additionally, the interest rate swap market indicates a reduced expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year. If the Fed maintains or raises rates in response to inflation, this could further elevate Treasury yields. The upcoming election also introduces uncertainty, prompting investors to adopt a risk-averse stance, which lead to sell-offs in equities and push yields on Treasuries higher.

  In summary, rising inflation concerns and shifting rate cut expectations are expected to drive Treasury yields up, compounded by pre-election volatility. @TigerStars @TigerGPT

  • TigerGPT: 

    According to the news articles I found, here are the key points related to US Treasury yields and market expectations:

    US Treasury Yield Hits 4%! Will Rate Cut Estimates Force Market Down? - The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has been increasing, reaching 4%. This rise in yields is attributed to inflation concerns and changing rate cut expectations. The interest rate swap market indicates a reduced expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year. This suggests that the market is anticipating the Fed to maintain or raise rates to address inflationary pressures. Read more

      

    US 10-Year Treasury Yield Slumps 4.9 Basis Points to 4.20%, Two-Year Rate Drops 3.7 Basis Points to 4.05% Early Thursday - The 10-year US Treasury yield experienced a decline of 4.9 basis points to 4.20%, while the two-year rate dropped 3.7 basis points to 4.05%. This movement indicates a potential shift in market sentiment and investor expectations regarding interest rates. Read more

      

    Treasuries Slide for Third Straight Day as Fed-Cut Bets Wane - Treasury yields have been increasing for three consecutive days. This trend is driven by the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at a gradual pace and concerns about the potential inflationary implications of the US presidential election. Read more

      

    Stock market today: US stocks drop and bond yields climb as investors temper expectations for rate cuts - US stocks edged lower as investors adjusted their outlook for Fed rate cuts. The market currently sees a 69% chance of the Fed cutting rates two more times in 2024. This adjustment in rate cut expectations has led to rising bond yields. Read more

      

    Overall, these articles indicate that US Treasury yields have been rising due to inflation concerns and changing rate cut expectations. The interest rate swap market suggests a reduced expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The market is closely monitoring these developments, as they can impact investment decisions and potentially lead to volatility in the stock market.

    Please note that the information provided is based on current market conditions and news articles and should not be considered as investment advice. It's always important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

  • Shyon: 
    Come and join yo @koolgal @rL @icycrystal @b1uesky @Universe宇宙 @Barcode @nomadic_m @GoodLife99 @Fenger1188
• icycrystal

  10-26

  icycrystal
  hopefully, yield won't go down too much, so can get higher [USD] [USD] [USD]

  According to the betting site Polymarket, Trump currently has a 64% chance of winning the November election, while Harris trails with a 36% chance.

  recent rise in the 10-year yield has nearly mirrored increasing speculation in betting markets that former President Trump will win the election.

  @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @LMSunshine @HelenJanet

  Will inflation and rate cut estimates change make US Treasuries yield higher?

  Will market pullback due to Treasury's forces?

  Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

• MHh

  10-24

  MHh
  Inflation is expected to make US treasuries yield higher and market pullback is usually in tandem. In the same thought, rate cuts will slow down if inflation is sticky. The market will price these in as well as the risk of a recession.
  • MHh: 
    @SPOT_ON @Fenger1188 @HelenJanet @Wayneqq @rL @Kaixiang @Universe宇宙 @Success88 @DiAngel @SR050321 come join
• Aqa

  10-28 17:21

  Aqa
  The inflation and rate cut estimates change are pushing US Treasuries yield higher. Some stocks’ prices has recently dropped showing signs that stock market pullback has occurred due to the expectations of treasury yields going higher. Thanks @Tiger_comments
• 北极篂

  10-26

  北极篂
  美国国债收益率触及4%确实引发了市场的广泛关注。较高的国债收益率往往意味着债券价格下跌，吸引资金流入债市，从而对股市等风险资产形成压力。因此，随着国债收益率持续上升，股市的估值可能会面临压力。
  
  
  然而，降息预期也在逐渐增强。如果美联储开始转向降息，这可能有助于降低债券收益率，提升债券价格，并缓解股市的下行压力。降息通常被视为支持经济增长的举措，能够鼓励企业借贷和投资，进而推升股市。
  
  
  不过，需要警惕的是，降息通常伴随着经济放缓的信号，市场可能对经济前景产生担忧，导致短期内股市波动加剧。因此，降息预期虽然在长期有利于市场，但短期内也可能会因经济不确定性带来调整。我认为市场是否会下跌，取决于美联储的行动速度以及市场对经济前景的解读。
• 北极篂

  10-24

  北极篂
  未来两周市场仍将面临震荡，这主要受全球宏观经济形势和政治不确定性影响。随着美国大选临近，避险情绪加剧，投资者往往倾向于降低风险敞口，推动市场中的抛售行为。尤其是风险资产，如股市，可能会因为不确定性而波动加剧。
  
  
  在此背景下，通胀和降息预期的变化对于美国国债收益率的影响至关重要。近期美国经济表现强劲，通胀压力依然存在，因此美联储可能会持续保持紧缩的货币政策。这可能使得投资者对于未来加息或延迟降息的预期增强，从而推动美国国债收益率上升。当收益率上升时，债券的吸引力增强，资金可能从股票等高风险资产转移至相对安全的债券市场，进一步加剧股市的回调压力。
  
  
  此外，美国财政部的举措也不可忽视。随着政府债务水平不断攀升，财政部将需要通过发售更多的国债来筹集资金。这种供应的增加可能对市场造成压力，推高债券收益率并引发市场的进一步调整。如果投资者担心债务问题以及政府的财政能力不足以应对未来的挑战，可能会选择减少风险资产的持有量，从而引发更大范围的市场回调。
  
  
  总体来看，在通胀、降息预期和财政政策的共同影响下，未来两周的市场波动性将继续存在，投资者需保持谨慎。对于那些追求稳健收益的投资者，转向国债或其他防御性资产可能是当前局势下的明智之举。然而，长期来看，市场依然会根据宏观经济数据和政策调整做出相应的反应，因此密切关注经济指标的变化至关重要。