US Treasury Yield Hits 4%! Will Rate Cut Estimates Force Market Down?

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2024-10-24
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On Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2410(10Ymain)$, often referred to as the "global asset pricing anchor," hit 4.26%, its highest level since July.

1. Election trades and inflation outlooks have reduced expectations for rate cuts.

The recent rise in the 10-year yield has nearly mirrored increasing speculation in betting markets that former President Trump will win the election.

His tax cut policies could potentially reignite inflation.

According to the betting site Polymarket, Trump currently has a 64% chance of winning the November election, while Harris trails with a 36% chance.

However, Harris’s policies could also stoke inflation. Affected by inflation concern, the interest rate swap market has continuously lowered expectations for a Fed rate cut by the end of the year.

The latest pricing indicates the Fed will cut rates by only 38 basis points for the remainder of 2024, with nearly a 50% chance of skipping a cut in one of the final two meetings.

2. Rising Treasury yields are putting pressure on the stock market.

Interest-sensitive large-cap stocks like $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ each fell more than 2%. Among the 11 sectors of $.SPX(.SPX)$, only utilities and real estate saw gains.

Goldman Sachs strategists recently warned that elevated Treasury yields could attract capital away from stocks and into bonds or other assets.

They project the S&P 500’s annual growth rate could be just 3% in the coming years, significantly lower than the 13% over the past decade and the long-term average of 11%.

The market is expected to remain volatile in the next two weeks, with sell-offs driven by pre-election risk aversion.

Will inflation and rate cut estimates change make US Treasuries yield higher?

Will market pullback due to Treasury's forces?

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  • Shyon
    2024-10-24
    Shyon
    Win 50 Tiger-coins
    目前的经济状况表明，由于通胀担忧和降息预期的变化，美国国债收益率可能会在短期内上升。围绕前总统特朗普可能赢得大选的猜测引发了人们对其减税政策导致通胀死灰复燃的担忧。如果通胀持续，投资者可能会要求更高的收益率来抵消购买力的损失。

    此外，利率互换市场表明对美联储年底降息的预期降低。如果美联储维持或加息以应对通胀，这可能会进一步提高国债收益率。即将到来的大选也带来了不确定性，促使投资者采取规避风险的立场，从而导致股市抛售并推高美国国债收益率。

    总之，通胀担忧加剧和降息预期转变预计将推动美国国债收益率上升，再加上大选前的波动性。 @TigerStars @TigerGPT

    • TigerAI: 

      根据我找到的新闻文章，以下是与美国国债收益率和市场预期相关的要点：

      美国国债收益率触及4%！降息预期会迫使市场下跌吗？-基准的10年期美国国债收益率一直在上升，达到4%。收益率的上升归因于通胀担忧和降息预期的变化。利率互换市场表明美联储年底降息预期降低。这表明市场预计美联储将维持或加息以应对通胀压力。阅读更多

      美国10年期国债收益率下跌4.9个基点至4.20%，两年期国债收益率下跌3.7个基点至4.05%周四早些时候，美国10年期国债收益率下跌4.9个基点至4.20%，而两年期国债收益率下跌3.7个基点至4.05%。这一走势表明市场情绪和投资者对利率的预期可能发生转变。阅读更多

      随着美联储降息押注减弱，美国国债连续第三天下滑——美国国债收益率已连续三天上升。这一趋势的推动因素是，人们越来越预期美联储将以渐进的步伐降低利率，以及对美国总统大选潜在通胀影响的担忧。阅读更多

      今日股市：投资者降低降息预期，美国股市下跌，债券收益率攀升——投资者调整美联储降息前景，美国股市小幅走低。目前市场认为美联储在2024年再降息两次的可能性为69%。这种降息预期的调整导致债券收益率上升。阅读更多

      总体而言，这些文章表明，由于通胀担忧和降息预期的变化，美国国债收益率一直在上升。利率互换市场暗示美联储降息预期降低。市场正在密切关注这些发展，因为它们可能会影响投资决策，并可能导致股市波动。

      请注意，所提供的信息基于当前的市场状况和新闻文章，不应被视为投资建议。在做出任何投资决定之前，进行彻底的研究和分析总是很重要的。

    • Shyon: 
      来加入哟 @koolgal @rL @icycrystal @b1uesky @Universe宇宙 @Barcode @nomadic_m @美好生活99 @Fenger1188
  • MHh
    2024-10-24
    MHh
    Win 15 Tiger-coins
    Inflation is expected to make US treasuries yield higher and market pullback is usually in tandem. In the same thought, rate cuts will slow down if inflation is sticky. The market will price these in as well as the risk of a recession.
  • Success88
    2024-10-24
    Success88
    Win 15 Tiger-coins
    US presiden election, Iran Geographical unstable, North Korea tension. All lead to uncertain. US rate cut might slow down due to still US economy equally good. This lead to Trrasury Yield high, Gold and crypto market high.
  • Cadi Poon
    2024-10-24
    Cadi Poon
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    对利率敏感的大盘股，如$英伟达公司(NVDA)$,$苹果(AAPL)$，和$亚马逊(AMZN)$各跌超2%。在11个板块中$.SPX(.SPX)$，只有公用事业和房地产出现上涨。

    高盛策略师最近警告称，美国国债收益率上升可能会吸引资本从股票转向债券或其他资产。

    他们计划S&amp未来几年，P 500指数的年增长率可能仅为3%，明显低于过去十年的13%和11%的长期平均水平。

  • TimothyX
    2024-10-24
    TimothyX
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    最近10年期國債收益率的上漲幾乎反映了博彩市場對前總統特朗普將贏得大選的猜測不斷增加。

    他的減稅政策可能會重燃通貨膨脹.

    根據博彩網站Polymarket的數據，特朗普目前有64%的機會贏得11月的大選，而哈里斯以36%的機會落後。


    然而，哈里斯的政策也可能加劇通脹。受通脹擔憂影響，利率互換市場不斷下調美聯儲年底降息預期。

  • WanEH
    2024-10-24
    WanEH
    Win 10 Tiger-coins
    I think us federal will continue with the rate cut in future. and it will cause market become volatile.
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