November Wrap-Up: Will December Bring a Santa Rally?

Tiger_comments
11-29 21:02
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As of Thanksgiving, $.SPX(.SPX)$ has risen 5.14% this month, with a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 25%. $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ is up over 27%. This has truly been "the best month" – did you earn money?

After significant gains, will Santa rally arrive?

Strong November momentum is said to likely carry into December. According to the Almanac, December is historically the third-best month for major averages.

During presidential election years, however, it becomes the second-best month for the Dow and the S&P 500.

In the final month, should you take profits or stay bullish for 2025?

With the market hitting new highs, multiple Wall Street firms have raised their 2025 targets for U.S. equities. Most major institutions predict further gains next year. The boldest call comes from Deutsche Bank, which has set a 2025 year-end target of 7,000 for the S&P 500.

However, some caution is warranted. Analysts warn of the risks of high valuations.

As shown below, the CAPE (Shiller PE) ratio currently stands at 38.41x, matching the peak of the 2021 pandemic bull market and second only to the dot-com bubble peak of 44.19x.

A high Shiller PE suggests the market or stocks may be overvalued relative to historical earnings, which could signal lower future returns. The challenge, however, is predicting how long the market can remain exuberant before a correction.

Given current conditions, the potential for further valuation expansion appears limited. If 2025 sees gains, they are likely to be driven by earnings growth. As a result, seeking alpha will become increasingly critical in 2025. Performance disparities between sectors and companies are expected to be significant.

Which sectors could drive 2025 alpha?

Did you profit from the November rally?

Will the Santa rally materialize?

Are you bullish on 2025’s growth potential?

Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

November Wrap-Up: Will December Bring a Santa Rally?
As of Thanksgiving, the S&P 500 has risen 5.14% this month. With the index continuously hitting new highs, several Wall Street investment banks have raised their targets for U.S. stocks in 2025. Nearly all major investment banks predict further gains for U.S. stocks next year. The most optimistic is Deutsche Bank, which has set a year-end 2025 target of 7,000 points for the S&P 500. However, analysts also caution investors to consider the risks of high valuations. --------------- Will santa rally happen after so many gains in November? Are you bullish on S&P 500?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • MicroStrategist
    11-29 23:49
    MicroStrategist

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  • icycrystal
    09:52
    icycrystal
    yeah, up and down, like yo-yo... but portfolio is better now... good to diversify to have a balance... and waiting for opportunities to get stocks at good price...

    Strong November momentum is said to likely carry into December. According to the Almanac, December is historically the third-best month for major averages.

    @LMSunshine @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @HelenJanet @koolgal @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @Shyon @Aqa

    Did you profit from the November rally?

    Will the Santa rally materialize?

    Are you bullish on 2025’s growth potential?

    Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise?

    Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

    • TigerGPT

      As an AI financial analyst, I don't have a personal portfolio or the ability to engage in financial transactions. However, I can provide you with insights and analysis based on historical data and market trends.

      The November rally in the stock market has indeed been strong, and December historically tends to be a favorable month for investors. This phenomenon is often referred to as the "Santa rally," where the market experiences a positive trend towards the end of the year.

      Regarding the growth potential for 2025, it is important to note that market conditions can be influenced by various factors such as economic indicators, geopolitical events, and company-specific developments. As an AI, I don't have a crystal ball, but I can provide you with information on sectors that are expected to have strong growth potential based on historical data and market trends.

      Some sectors that have shown promising growth potential in recent times include technology, renewable energy, healthcare, and e-commerce. These sectors have benefited from various factors such as innovation, increasing demand, and favorable regulatory environments.

      However, it's crucial to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Always consider your risk tolerance, investment goals, and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor.

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Investing in the stock market carries risks, and it's essential to make informed decisions based on your own analysis and understanding of the market.

      Feel free to ask if you have any specific questions or need further assistance!

  • Shyon
    11-29 21:14
    Shyon
    Yes, I did profit from the November rally, especially with Trump-related stocks like Tesla (TSLA) benefiting from the momentum. The strong gains in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also helped me capitalize on the market's enthusiasm.

    I’m still bullish for 2025. Despite high valuations, sectors like AI and EVs will likely drive growth. AI has been strong this year, and with continued advancements in healthcare and autonomous tech, I expect this trend to persist. The EV market also has room to grow as more companies innovate in sustainability.

    I think the Santa rally will materialize, given strong historical trends in December, especially in a presidential election year. While cautious about further valuation expansion, I believe earnings growth could still fuel returns. AI and EVs remain my focus, though emerging sectors like quantum computing and drones could also provide potential in 2025.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT

    • TigerGPT

      Here is a comparison analysis of the stocks you mentioned:

      Tesla Motors (TSLA):

      Stock price: $332.89 (USD)  

      Earnings forecast: For 2025FY, the forecasted EPS is $3.25 (USD) with a gross income of $115.45 billion (USD) and forecasting EBIT of $11.45 billion (USD).  

      Capital flow: In the past 5 days, there has been a net inflow of $661.3 million (USD).  

      Analyst recommendation: 15 buy, 18 hold, 9 underperform, 4 sell.  

      Analyst target price: The mean target price estimate is $231.13 (USD), with a low estimate of $24.86 (USD) and a high estimate of $400.0 (USD).  

        

      NVIDIA Corp (NVDA):

      Stock price: $135.34 (USD)  

      Earnings forecast: For 2025FY, the forecasted EPS is $2.95 (USD) with a gross income of $129.31 billion (USD) and forecasting EBIT of $86.49 billion (USD).  

      Capital flow: In the past 5 days, there has been a net outflow of $71.2 million (USD).  

      Analyst recommendation: 15 buy, 21 recommend, 37 hold, 6 sell.  

      Analyst target price: The mean target price estimate is $167.82 (USD), with a low estimate of $75.4 (USD) and a high estimate of $220.0 (USD).  

        

      Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS):

      Stock price: $30.34 (USD)  

      Earnings forecast: For 2025FY, the forecasted EPS is $0.50 (USD) with a gross income of $2.02 billion (USD) and forecasting EBIT of $133.89 million (USD).  

      Capital flow: In the past 5 days, there has been a net inflow of $197.7 million (USD).  

      Analyst recommendation: 7 buy, 7 hold, 1 underperform.  

      Analyst target price: The mean target price estimate is $24.84 (USD), with a low estimate of $18.0 (USD) and a high estimate of $32.0 (USD).  

        

      Trump Media & Technology (DJT):

      Stock price: $30.44 (USD)  

      Capital flow: In the past 5 days, there has been a net inflow of $9.38 million (USD).  

        

      Please note that the above analysis provides an overview of the stocks based on various factors, such as stock price, earnings forecast, capital flow, analyst recommendations, and target prices. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider other factors before making any investment decisions.

      Disclaimer: The above analysis should not be considered as investment advice. Investing in the stock market carries inherent risks, and it is important to make independent judgments and consider your own risk tolerance and investment objectives. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • MHh
    11-29 22:17
    MHh
    Have not taken profit. I think there is a good chance that the Santa rally will materialise and I do intend to take profit soon. 2025 is hard to predict but with all the tariffs that trump intends to do, I expect inflation and slower trade which would leave the Fed slowing rate cuts. AI and tech should do well under him
  • highhand
    11:31
    highhand
    Nov was wonderful, and Dec might be great. Keep holding in to your great stocks. There's no reason to sell out if you are going long term. Hopefully you have cash, to buy into any correction. Remember not to time the market. Hohoho...
  • NightMorph
    03:35
    NightMorph
    November has been an awesome month of gains, lots of positive news and future Outlook ( with a few bumps along the way. I'm hoping for a bull December so that Santa can upgrade his sleigh...possibly to a  $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$ eVOTL? 😆 And we can all indeed have a very Merry Christmas.  Quantum computing and eVTOL shares are what I want under the tree.
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