During the Spring Festival holiday, although the domestic market was closed, overseas products continued to trade as usual, and some varieties even reached new highs. This means that we need to re-evaluate these new changes, and adjust the incorrect calculations or judgments. Now, let's take a look at which varieties deserve special attention after the holiday.
Gold
First and foremost, gold has hit a new all-time high. Previously, I thought that gold had peaked at around $2,800. But now it seems that this judgment might have been hasty. Although the top area is still very close, there is still room for one last upward push in the current market.
Clearly, the previous triangle consolidation has now disproven the top. It also indicates that the secondary low point, which started at around $2,600, is now starting a new upward trend, and is likely to be in the form of an ending wedge. the price can reach nearly $3,300 at the farthest.
However, this is only the most ideal situation. Personally, I still think that the actual high point will be much lower than this level. Considering the new high, it is not advisable to short against the trend. Therefore, the new direction to consider now is to go long at a low level after a pullback, or patiently wait for a clear new signal of a peak.
Ethereum
The second variety worthy of attention is Ethereum. We have mainly focused on Bitcoin before. But in the past few days' market, it can be clearly seen that ETH is repeating the path of silver, always the second best: far behind the performance of the leader and may never reach a new high again. This direction is consistent with our previous judgment. It's just that the market during the holiday has further confirmed this trend.
While ETH futures show contained downside (supported by Bitcoin’s ongoing momentum), the pair’s ratio increasingly favors systematic long-Bitcoin/short-ETH positions. This spread trade should be executed opportunistically during ratio extremes or news-driven dislocations.
Crude Oil and Japanese Yen
The third are the interlinked crude oil and Japanese yen markets. As we mentioned before, both of them represent the overall market risk appetite. Previously, the oil price rebounded to $80, very close to the midline. But as Trump's tax hike threat looms again, the oil price has returned to a low level. At the same time, the Japanese yen has begun to rebound, and the USD/JPY has started to slide towards the key level of 151.
The performance of these two varieties is an important reference for judging the US stock index and the overall market risk appetite. If the oil price breaks below $70, or even falls below the recent low, and at the same time, the USD/JPY falls below 151, or even further breaks through 139, it can be regarded as a clear risk-off signal.
The pullback of previously popular stocks such as Nvidia recently is also a side warning. Currently, the prices are still in a relatively safe range, but the recent trend is not very promising, so we need to pay attention to the subsequent changes.
In addition to the above varieties, there are also some other varieties with unusual movements and market activities during the holiday. However, considering that the trading coverage is not so extensive, I can only discuss with you the ones I'm dealing with. For other possible trend-forming or turning opportunities, you can also observe from the varieties you usually trade.
$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(MESmain)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2503(YMmain)$ $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2503(CLmain)$
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