To The Moon

With the update of the U.S. data again, the market has advanced the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut to a certain extent (for details, please refer to the content of last week's article), which also makes the U.S Treasury Yield out of the range-bound pattern as we expected. Although the price trend of bond yields has been determined, some investors are concerned about whether the 2-10-year spread convergence strategy is about to enter the tradable range.The general trend is clear, and high resistance plays a roleThe major premise of the yield expansion or convergence strategy itself lies in the change in the overall interest rate outlook: due to the relative certainty of the previous forward interest rate cut expectations, the inevitable result is that the rise in long-term bond yields

How to manage (manipulate) market expectations? The easiest way is to fine-tune the results of the data, thereby "helping" the market to correct its judgment on the timing of interest rate cuts. In this regard, it has to be said that this term of the Federal Reserve and the US government are definitely the best of the best. Don't you see, after the release of the latest non-agricultural data in January, the time for interest rate cuts is expected to be brought forward from the end of the year to September. This time, which is neither too early nor too late Data show that the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the United States recorded an increase of 175,000 in April, the lowest increase since October 2023, lower than the expected 243,000 and the previous value of 303,00

The foreign exchange market has been calm in the past few years. The large shock mode of the the US Dollar Index has caused most currencies to trade in a range mode. However, there are also outliers among them. The yen continues to fall and set a new historical low, but it is still not intervened by the central bank. What is the reason behind allowing the yen to fall?From the trend of the yen in CME group, it can be seen that the historic low has been moving down in the past few months, which also includes the macro environment where the Bank of Japan has begun to tighten. Looking forward, the Bank of Japan also briefly intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2022-2023, but the intensity was relatively limited, and the yen also rebounded slightly before sinking again.Obviously, from t

As speculated, news of the conflict between Israel and Iran has subsided, which has prompted a pullback in gold, and you may have to wait for a while to chase higher. For gold trading this year, the importance of finding a good time and a low position is relatively high, and it is not easy to chase ups and downs.The correction of gold With a long green line on Monday to determine a larger pullback/retracement time span, coupled with the more violent fall of silver (it has also been recommended to short silver and long gold to deal with this round of market), we expect gold to be short in the short term will not Reverse quickly.But how to judge the low point of the callback that everyone is more concerned about? First of all, it is certain that it is likely that it will be difficult for sho

The situation in the Middle East has once again become the focus of the market in recent days, with some concerns about the conflict between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have shown signs of perseverance, it is more likely that there will be “big thunder, little rain”. At the same time, referring to the geopolitical conflicts and small-scale military operations that have occurred several times before, the financial market can basically digest the impact within a week, so short-term fluctuations are difficult to shake the market trend.In theory, gold and crude oil are naturally the most sensitive to this topic. Last Friday's rise and fall seem to have previewed the weekend's soap opera in advance: Compared with a real fight, it seems more cost-effective to make a tough statement to g

The bulls in the crude oil market that continued in the first quarter have helped the price return to the central axis level we defined. With the emergence of high pressure and the small deviation between US stocks and stock indexes, we expect that it will be more difficult for oil prices to go up. For low buy/long investments, now may be the time to at least partially lock in profits.At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, we introduced the composition of crude oil price range: above 95/100 is the level of selling crude oil reserves by the US government (Biden made clear), while below 70 US dollars is the level of buying back crude oil reserves. The 84 line in the middle of the two is defined as the central axis because of the obvious change of hands. Under the big shock m

From the market situation in the past few years, it is not difficult to find that the current US government has a very strong control over the financial sector, and their trading methods are also comfortable. Since the first quarter of last year, NVIDIA, the first AI concept, is still the leading core variety, and they have also promoted the overall bull market of US stocks. This year, another one pushed to the front desk is BTC, which is well known but not much involved.Once upon a time, many Wall Street giants also said that BTC was defined as a channel for fraud and money laundering. However, this thing has boarded the hall of ETF in a twinkling of an eye. It is obviously unreasonable to say that there is no intentional promotion from Biden administration. Behind this is naturally the f

At the end of the month, the news from the terrorist attacks in Moscow shocked the market again, and also caused investors to worry about geopolitical progress. So will this event become a new driving factor and dominate the market in the second quarter? My personal opinion is that the possibility is relatively low. Unless there are more actions and conflicts between the two sides, the market will digest this topic quickly.First of all, from the market feedback, at first glance, there is a certain degree of risk aversion, but in fact, the assets themselves still show signs of "fighting", which shows that the event itself is not of high magnitude. For example, the US dollar did rebound and rise, but as we said before, the US Dollar Index is in the form of diamond, so it is not necessary to

Except for those categories that have been fluctuating for a long time, most assets that performed strongly in the first quarter or even set a new record high have experienced weak upside in the near future. Interestingly, the two leading brothers who lead the rise are unexpectedly in the same pace in the medium and long term. With the emergence of adjustment, compared with the rapid and rapid sharp drop, the way that may be buffered by time is also an option.As we all know, NVIDIA is the standard-bearer of AI concept and the engine of the bull market of US stocks last year, and the crazy performance of Bitcoin in the past few months is obvious to all. Although there is a certain degree of correlation between the two, it is not difficult to find that such a high degree of positive correlat

When gold was in 1450 position, we had boldly assumed that the current bull market of gold could rise to 2200-2300. At that time, many people didn't understand that the Federal Reserve was about to tighten at that time, and there was no reason for gold to enter a big bull market. However, the power of the market itself (graph) still proves that the real relationship between supply and demand has been included in the market. Now, with the new high coming earlier than expected, we need to consider whether 2300 will still be the upper limit of gold.This is a picture that I like to show you in online and offline lectures over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have always been optimistic about gold. 2263 is the lowest bull market target price that gold can reach according to the pe