🎁What the Tigers Say | UNH Breakout: Have You Profited From Buffet's Pick?

UnitedHealth continues to jump after the health insurer reaffirmed its full-year 2025 earnings outlook.

The company said it continues to expect adjusted earnings of at least $16.00 per share with revenue in the range of $445.5 billion to $448.0 billion. Wall Street currently forecasts earnings of $16.24 per share on revenue near $448.2 billion.

After breaking the key resistance level of $320, is UNH hitting the short term peak?

Have you jumped on the wagon with Buffett?

🎁Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the” What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution.

Click titles to read the full analysis:

1. @TwoDeMoon:

Key Points:

This is a defensive and fundamental / value pick. For those who bought at 300 or below, congrats! Still lots of runway to go!!! $400 price target before end 2026.

2. @Lanceljx:

Key Points:

Guidance reaffirmed: Management reiterated ≥ $16.00 EPS and $445.5B–$448B revenue for FY2025. This is broadly in line with Wall Street’s expectations, signalling stability.

Market reaction: Shares broke through the $320 resistance level, which had been a ceiling for months. Technical traders view this as a bullish breakout.

Valuation context: At ~$320, UNH trades around 20x forward earnings—not cheap, but reasonable for a defensive healthcare leader with consistent growth.

Short-Term View

Breakout risk: After a strong run, stocks often pause or consolidate as early buyers take profits.

Catalysts ahead: Medicare Advantage enrolments, medical cost trends, and regulatory headlines can drive near-term swings.

Technical momentum: As long as UNH holds above ~$320, momentum traders will likely keep buying dips. If it falls back below that level, a near-term top could be in place.

Long-Term View

Business moat: UNH is the largest U.S. health insurer, with strong diversification (Optum health services, pharmacy benefit management, data analytics).

Secular drivers: Aging U.S. population, demand for cost-efficient care, and increasing penetration of value-based healthcare support steady growth.

Buffett angle: Berkshire Hathaway holds significant healthcare exposure (though more in pharma and insurance broadly). UNH is often mentioned as a Buffett-style stock—scale, predictable earnings, strong cash flow—even if Berkshire hasn’t disclosed a direct stake.

✅ Verdict

Short term: UNH may be approaching a local peak after the breakout—some profit-taking is likely.

Long term: The reaffirmed guidance, defensive nature, and secular tailwinds argue for continued strength. If you are a long-term investor, dips toward support levels (~$310–$315) could be attractive entries rather than exits.

3. @WeChats:

Key Points:

🚀 The Bull Case: Buffett, Demographics, Momentum

Bulls see UNH’s breakout as the start of a new leg higher:

Buffett Effect: Berkshire Hathaway rarely buys “flashy” names. A $1.6B stake is validation that UNH offers moat + durability.

Earnings Power: EPS growth in the high single digits, year after year. Few large-caps can match that consistency.

Valuation Premium? Not Really: Trading at ~20x forward earnings, UNH looks cheaper than Mag 7 names with similar multiples but way higher volatility.

Momentum Matters: Breaking $320 resistance could open the door to $350–$360 near term, especially if institutional flows follow Buffett’s lead.

For bulls, UNH isn’t just “defensive” anymore — it’s defensive with offense.

⚠️ The Bear Case: Political Storm Clouds

Skeptics see a very different story:

Policy Risk: Healthcare is always on the ballot. Changes to Medicare reimbursements or prescription drug pricing could dent profits.

Valuation Ceiling: UNH trades near the top of its historical P/E range. Any stumble could drag shares back under $300.

Profit-Taking Zone: Traders who bought below $280 may be cashing out now, capping upside.

Rising Competition: Humana, CVS, and Cigna are all scaling aggressively in managed care and pharmacy benefits.

The bear argument is clear: UNH is strong, but already priced as if it’s invincible. Any political shock could remind investors otherwise.

🤔 Buffett Effect vs Investor Reality

Here’s the psychology trap: Buffett bought UNH, so it must be safe. That halo effect has drawn in countless retail investors. But following Buffett blindly hasn’t always worked (remember his ill-fated IBM bet?).

The smarter question is: does UNH fit your own portfolio?

If you want steady compounding with less volatility, UNH fits the bill.

If you’re chasing explosive AI-style growth, UNH won’t deliver.

If you’re wary of regulatory risk in an election year, tread carefully.

Buffett invests on 10–20 year horizons. Retail traders often think in months. Mixing those timelines can be dangerous.

📊 How UNH Stacks Up vs Alternatives

For context:

Mag 7 tech names trade at P/E multiples of 25–40x with much more volatility.

Healthcare peers like Humana or Cigna trade cheaper, but lack UNH’s scale and diversification.

Biotech can offer bigger upside, but also far bigger downside risk.

That’s why UNH feels unique: lower risk than tech, more dependable than peers, with Buffett’s stamp of approval.

4. @Barcode:

Key Points:

🧮 Discounted Cashflow Conviction

I’ve run the DCF, and the result is decisive. Equity value per share comes in at $580.03, nearly 70% upside from here. Present value of the next decade of cashflows plus terminal value makes the current market price deeply disconnected from intrinsic worth. At an 8.5% discount rate, this isn’t a guess, it’s math.

📈 Technical Setups Aligning

On the weekly chart, the wedge structure mirrors prior inflection zones. Historically, $UNH has launched 100%+ rallies after similar decade-long compressions, and the current formation projects a comparable expansion. The 30-minute and 4H Keltner/Bollinger expansions show fresh momentum breaking out of compression.

Crucially, there’s an open gap above $360 that traders are eyeing for a near-term fill. For execution, the base case is holding the $320 reclaim with near-term upside into $360–$375. A break back below $310 would weaken the setup, but as long as higher lows are preserved, the roadmap to the 200W MA stays intact. Momentum traders can lean into the gap fill while swing traders track the wedge breakout toward the longer-term levels.

📊 Base, Bear, and Bull Scenarios

• Base Case (55%): Consolidation above $320 drives a measured push to the $360 gap fill, aligning with the DCF anchor. This remains the most probable outcome given technical compression and fundamentals.

• Bear Case (15%): Breakdown under $310 opens risk to retest $280; downside only activates if October star ratings disappoint or DOJ overhang intensifies. Low probability, but still a risk worth tracking.

• Bull Case (30%): A clean gap fill at $360 accelerates momentum into $400–$420 by year-end, with the 200W MA above $450 as the stretch target. Historical expansions plus short-covering fuel make this outcome more likely than bears are pricing in.

🏦 Institutional Flows

Buffett’s Berkshire 13F shows 2.45M shares worth $764M. Tepper’s $BABA haul delivered him +500M profits; I believe $UNH is next in line for institutional rerating. When capital of this magnitude positions, it’s not a trade, it’s a statement.

5. @Ragz:

Key Points:

UNH PUT US20250919 290.0: UNH getting bullish, selling a put for premium.

Questions for you:

After breaking the key resistance level of $320, is UNH hitting the short term peak?

Have you jumped on the wagon with Buffett?

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⏰Duration

• 17 Sep (24pm EDT)