After a $2 Trillion Meltdown: Are You Holding/Adding or Selling?

Tiger_comments
11-21
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Last night should have been a celebration — $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ blew past expectations and jobs data looked perfect, sending $S&P 500(.SPX)$ up 1.9% at the open. The party lasted an hour. By the close the market collapsed.

The S&P plunged from its high and wiped out more than $2 trillion in market value. Nvidia swung from +5% to -3%. Bitcoin fell through $90,000. Market expectations suggest the drawdown of BTC may not be over.

What’s striking is that bitcoin’s plunge began before the U.S. equity sell-off — risk appetite appears to have cracked first in crypto, then spilled into stocks. Fear spiked: the VIX jumped above 26 and markets slid straight into panic mode.

PCR lifts but doesn’t reach April level.

As Goldman trader John Flood put it bluntly: “Good news that fails to rally the market is a very bad signal.”

Goldman’s team traced nine interconnected triggers behind the rout:

  1. Nvidia’s upside is priced in — even a stellar report couldn't restore confidence.

  2. Private-credit risks heating up — the Fed explicitly flagged “valuation fragility.”

  3. Jobs data offers no early cut-rate hopes — investors remain uncertain about rate cuts.

  4. Crypto collapse — bitcoin breaching a key psychological level drained risk appetite.

  5. CTA (trend-following) program selling accelerates — technical thresholds were breached and automated selling cascaded.

  6. Shorts return — once trends reverse, short positions quickly amplify the downmove.

  7. Weakness in overseas tech names — global tech weakness weighed on U.S. stocks (big cap tech reversals like Nvidia amplified the effect).

  8. Liquidity drying up — top-of-book depth shrank to only $5–6 million, leaving almost no buffer for big orders.

  9. ETF trading dominates — ETFs accounted for over 40% of volume, so macro-driven flows are now the market’s pulse, increasing volatility.

Goldman’s model shows CTAs will remain net sellers regardless of short-term moves. A critical marker is 6457 on the S&P — a break below that could trigger a larger programmatic sell-off.

And there’s more pressure coming: the largest November options expiries in history arrive this Friday — roughly $3.1 trillion of options will expire (about $1.7T in SPX index options and $725B in single-stock options). That expiry could amplify moves in either direction.

Some names are already down more than 20% from their peaks. The biggest losers so far have been crypto and high-beta tech — they’ve taken the brunt of the sell-off.

  1. With Black Friday and retail discount season approaching, the question on many traders’ minds is: is now the time to add?

  2. What’s your plan to buy the dip?

  3. Which stock enters your buy zone?

  4. In the face of plunging stocks, are you holding/adding or selling?

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Market Rebound: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?
The S&P 500 index fell about 2% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since March, while market volatility surged. Citi’s Head of Wealth Management said there is still “some room” for the bull market, and this Wall Street giant has seen record inflows from wealthy clients this year. Last Friday, expectations for a rate cut shifted again, prompting an emergency Fed intervention that ultimately turned the market positive. Will this week see a “mindless” rally? With the Fed set to end QT in December, is this year’s decline over? Are you bullish or bearish?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Shyon
    11-22
    Shyon
    The market's sharp collapse despite positive news signals deep underlying fragility, with Goldman Sachs identifying nine triggers ranging from priced-in Nvidia earnings to CTA selling and critical liquidity drying up. This volatility, amplified by ETF flows and the record options expiry this week, necessitates a cautious approach.

    My strategy is to systematically scale into high-conviction names rather than blindly buying the dip. I will deploy cash gradually, primarily after the options-related turbulence subsides. My buy zone focuses on two areas: high-quality technology names that have been oversold, like NVDA, which I would add to aggressively on further weakness, and strong consumer discretionary names ahead of the holiday season, such as AMZN or WMT.

    In summary, I am choosing to Hold core positions and Add tactically with fresh capital, maintaining discipline and a long-term view while avoiding leveraged trades until market structure stabilizes.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

  • 1PC
    11-21
    1PC
    It looks like Xmas 🎄🎁 is coming earlier for the stock markets [Chuckle], looking at META NVDA or TESLA to 🪏🪏🪏. Hold on to NVDA 🚀🚀🚀 & believe their LT 🚀😜. @JC888 @Barcode @DiAngel @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @Shyon
    • Shyon: 
      Thanks for sharing yo
  • ECLC
    11-22
    ECLC
    With $2 trillion meltdown, there are  certain valid concerns that investors fear. Best to review and act on portfolio based on own fear and greed in times of uncertainty.
  • BTS
    11-24
    BTS
    The $2 trillion meltdown driven by short-term factors presents a discount opportunity for high-quality stocks, with many analysts viewing the drawdown as a healthy correction and long-term value intact, though persistent volatility requires aligning fluctuations with long-term goals。。。

    Holding works for diversified portfolios of stable companies, adding to oversold tech or consumer goods is smart for long-term investors, while selling is necessary if the market outlook is bearish or stocks diverge from financial goals

    Defensive stocks offer stability, but aggressive long-term investors target oversold chipmakers and big tech for deep discounts on resilient AI growth trends

    The decision to buy or sell depends on investment style, with value investors seeking undervalued companies, growth investors focusing on long-term potential in oversold stocks, and selling to reduce exposure to underperforming assets
    Tag :
    @Huat99
    @Snowwhite

  • Universe宇宙
    11-22
    Universe宇宙
    Investors can freely buy or sell stocks as long as they are not in a trading halt (e.g., $Hyflux(600.SI)$ , $EC World Reit(BWCU.SI)$ , and $Dasin Retail Tr(CEDU.SI)$ .) This allows for the opportunity to purchase more shares or short sell. However, if a stock is in a trading halt, investors cannot execute either action.
  • koolgal
    11-22
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟A USD 2 Trillion meltdown has wiped out fortunes & the echoes of April's plunge feels real.

    For many, the first instinct is to sell, to stop the pain.  But for the long term investor, holding on is an defiant act of faith. It is a declaration that you have done your research & you believe in the companies you own.  You know that these selloffs are not a reflection of the companies' long term value but of market panic.

    You hold not  because you are reckless but because you are patient.  You understand that selling now is the one guaranteed way to lock in your losses.

    For the courageous, this isn't the time for retreat. It is the time for a calculated offensive.  The fear gripping the market is creating opportunities. Remember, the market long term trend is up & dips are where future gains are made.

    As Warren Buffett likes to say "Be fearful when others are greedy.  Be greedy when others are fearful."

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger

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