Weekly: Tensions Easing, Indexes Jump 3–5% Despite Hot Inflation & Weak GDP; Q1 Earnings Ahead

Last Week's Recap

1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13%

• Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices.

• Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses.

• Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

• Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119.

• Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses.

• GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially).

• Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March).

• Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6% from 13.2%.

2. The US Sectors & Stocks - Tech and Energy Stocks Drive Market Gains

$S&P 500(.SPX)$: The S&P 500 index rose by 3.1% and closed at 6816.89 last week, driven by strong performances in the technology and semiconductor sectors.

Sectors: The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with stocks like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ leading the charge due to robust demand for AI-related chips. Energy stocks, however, faced pressure from declining oil prices, impacting companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : +13.64% - Supported by its aggressive expansion in AI and data center investments, alongside strong growth in its chips business.

• $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : +9.31% - Driven by strong demand for AI-related chips and a favorable exchange rate.

• $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ : +12.23% - Reflecting positive sentiment ahead of its expected revenue growth in Q1.

• $Netflix(NFLX)$ : +4.1% - buoyed by expectations of a 15.82% revenue growth in Q1, driven by new monetization initiatives and advertising progress.

• $Alibaba(BABA)$ : +4.33% - fueled by strong investor interest in Chinese tech equities and positive sentiment around its AI advancements.

• $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ $ : +58.91%- Reflecting strong investor confidence following its Q3 financial results that exceeded expectations.

• $Chevron(CVX)$ : -5.24% - Impacted by the drop in oil prices following geopolitical developments.

• $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ : -5.09% - As the provisional ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices.

• $APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ : +6.92% - Driven by strong demand for its data center services and AI infrastructure needs.

• $Eos Energy Enterprises Inc.(EOSE)$ : +13.08% - Reflecting positive market reception to its operational scaling progress and record shipments.

3. Hong Kong Market - HSI surges 3.09% amid AI-driven tech rally

$HSI(HSI)$ jumped 3.09% to 25,893.54 and $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ added 3.87% to 4,860.26 on easing geopolitical tensions and AI infrastructure demand.

Sector Leaders: Info Tech Consulting (+32.6%), Semiconductors (+15.3%), and System Software (+16.8%) led on AI investment and record chip sales (+61.8% YoY).

Top 10 Performers:

• $CH FRONTIER TEC(01661)$ : +179.31% – Surged on speculative buying in small-cap tech plays and AI-related theme momentum.

• $CHINA FORTUNE(00110)$ : +97.44% – Rally driven by low-float volatility and potential restructuring optimism in the conglomerate’s asset portfolio.

• $LEOCH INT'L(00842)$ : +86.79% – Skyrocketed after announcing termination of Leoch Energy Inc.'s planned U.S. spin-off, removing uncertainty over the overseas asset divestment .

• $EDA GROUP HLDGS(02505)$ : +83.56% – Gained on annual results showing revenue up 17.58% YoY, with global warehouse expansion showing initial traction in Europe and Australia .

• $HING LEE (HK)(00396)$ : +76.92% – Experienced volatile price swings amid thin trading and speculative interest in micro-cap industrials .

• $DTXS SILK ROAD(00620)$ : +73.08% – Rose on cultural asset trading platform speculation and potential policy support for heritage digitization initiatives.

• $CN CULTURE GP(00745)$ : +64.71% – Benefited from e-commerce and advertising segment recovery, alongside momentum in film production-related services.

• $CHINA NEWCITY(01321)$ : +58.70% – Joined as a founding member of the Hong Kong RWA Global Industry Alliance, focusing on blockchain-based asset tokenization and cross-border ASEAN cooperation .

• $MODERN CHI MED(01643)$ : +56.48% –Traditional Chinese medicine stocks attracted defensive capital; the stock hit record highs amid strong prescription drug sales data .

• $DIAGENS-B(02526)$ : +51.52% – The "medical imaging large model platform first stock" continued its post-IPO rally, driven by its iMedImage® foundation model covering 19 imaging modalities and 469.8% YoY revenue growth

4. Singapore Market - STI gains 0.85% amid relief rally in tech and property sectors

$Solidion Technology Inc.(STI)$ : +0.85% to 4,989.41, a modest relief rally led by advertising (+20.14%) and semiconductor equipment (+19.17%) as easing Middle East tensions lifted regional sentiment, though gains were capped by selective positioning on property exposure.

Top Performers:

• $Top Glove(BVA.SI)$ : +8.51% – Bounced from oversold levels as glove demand stabilized and production costs eased.

• $Frasers Property(TQ5.SI)$ : +6.19% – Gained on defensive rotation into diversified Singapore/Australia property plays.

• $Yanlord Land(Z25.SI)$ : +5.79% – Rose on China property policy speculation and low-base bargain hunting.

• $SGX(S68.SI)$ : +5.45% – Benefited from elevated trading volumes and rebounding market turnover.

• $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ : +4.96% – Tracked maritime sector rally and new order momentum.

• $Jiutian Chemical(C8R.SI)$ : +4.76% – Micro-cap rally on chemical supply chain adjustments.

• $HongkongLand USD(H78.SI)$ : +3.72% – Gained on China policy easing hopes and office market stabilization.

• $CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)$ : +2.92% – Rose on retail/hospitality recovery, though China exposure remains mixed.

• $CityDev(C09.SI)$ : +2.68% – Advanced on property sector relief and restructuring optimism.

• $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ : +2.07% – Tracked renewables expansion in India; analysts maintain bullish S$7.30-7.90 targets.

5. Australian Market - XJO gains 4.44% amid relief rally in tech and financials

$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ : +4.44% to 8,960.6 on a broad-based relief rally led by consumer electronics (+42.45%) and Big Four banks as easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly oil price drop improved risk appetite.

Top Performers:

• $ASX LTD(ASX.AU)$ : +10.05% – Elevated trading volumes and improved market turnover.

• $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ : +8.21% – High-dividend banking rotation; strong deposit/loan growth.

• $VICINITY CENTRES(VCX.AU)$ : +8.02% – Retail REIT benefiting from improved foot traffic.

• $Macquarie(MQG.AU)$ : +7.90% – All four divisions posted higher net profit; 17% upside target.

• $GOODMAN GROUP(GMG.AU)$ : +7.04% – Logistics and data center expansion.

• $ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(ANZ.AU)$ : +6.79% – "ANZ 2030" strategy; sector-wide strength.

• $WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION(WBC.AU)$ : +6.76% – Risk appetite recovery; 39% annual gain.

• $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ : +6.68% – Banking relief rally; up 11% YTD.

• $QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED(QAN.AU)$ : +6.00% – Reopening travel demand and load factor recovery.

• $TREASURY WINE ESTATES LTD(TWE.AU)$ : +5.85% – Oversold bounce; "TWE Ascent" cost cuts; 12.7x PE value.

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors -Key Economic Data

• Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad; oil/bond volatility continues

• IMF: Updated global forecasts assessing Middle East conflict impact

• U.S. Data: PPI (+4.6% YoY exp), Empire State & Philly Fed surveys, existing home sales, industrial production

• Europe: Final March CPI (Spain, France, Italy, Eurozone), industrial production, ECB meeting minutes

• China: Q1 GDP (+4.9% exp), retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, March trade (+8% exports exp)

2. Earnings Spotlight: April 13–17

Financials dominate the calendar as Q1 bank results kick into high gear, alongside key semiconductor and consumer names.

Big Banks & Financials (Mon–Thu)

• Mon: $Goldman Sachs(GS)$, $Fastenal(FAST)$

• Tues: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, $Citigroup(C)$, $Wells Fargo(WFC)$, $BlackRock(BLK)$, $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$

• Wed: $Morgan Stanley(MS)$, $Bank of America(BAC)$, $PNC Financial Services Group Inc(PNC)$, $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$

• Thu: $Bank of New York Mellon(BK)$, $U.S. Bancorp(USB)$, $Charles Schwab(SCHW)$, $State(STT)$

• Fri: $Ally(ALLY)$

Tech & Semiconductors

• Wed: $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ – Critical lithography demand signals for AI chip capacity.

• Thu: $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ – The world's largest foundry reports; key read on AI chip (HBM/CoWoS) supply constraints and Capex plans. Also $Netflix(NFLX)$ – Subscriber growth and ad-tier momentum.

Industrials & Consumer

• Wed: $JB Hunt Transport(JBHT)$ – Freight and logistics barometer.

• Thu: $Pepsi(PEP)$ – Pricing power and volume trends in snacks/beverages; $Alcoa(AA)$ – Aluminum pricing post-Middle East supply shocks.

• Fri: $LM Ericsson Telephone(ERIC)$ – 5G infrastructure demand.

What to Watch: Bank net interest margin pressure vs. investment banking recovery; TSM’s 2026 CapEx guidance for AI capacity; NFLX subscriber beat/miss after price hikes.