Big Tech Earnings! Can Tesla Beat & Transform from “Cars” to “Chips"?

Tiger_comments
04-19
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With $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ extending to an 11-day winning streak and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ breaking above 7,000 for the first time, the U.S. market has entered the most critical validation window after a V-shaped rebound — Big Tech earnings season.

Six of “Magnificent Seven” will report in late April. The market’s focus next week is on the hardest-to-price name: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ .

Wall Street Is More Bullish Than Ever on This Earnings Season

This time, Wall Street is genuinely bullish, not just politely optimistic.

Deutsche Bank expects S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth of 19%, the fastest in four years, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Even more unusually, analysts are already forecasting strong growth before earnings season begins — historically rare, as expectations are usually set low first

The core driver remains AI. According to Goldman Sachs:

  • AI-related megacaps are expected to contribute over 60% of S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth

  • NVIDIA alone contributes 3.3 percentage points, and Micron 2.7 points — together accounting for over 50% of total EPS growth

  • The Information Technology sector is expected to deliver 44% EPS growth, contributing 87% of overall S&P 500 EPS growth

The Main Event: How Will Tesla Play This Hand?

📊 Wall Street Baseline Expectations

  • Q1 revenue: $21.92B (+13% YoY)

  • Adjusted EPS: $0.36 (+33% YoY)

  • Auto gross margin: ~16% (vs. 15% last year)

  • Energy revenue: $3.39B (+24% YoY), with 8.8 GWh storage deployments

The Real Focus: Can the Transformation Story Show Progress?

For this earnings report, the market is not focused on a few basis points of margin — the real question is:

👉 Has Tesla’s transformation story entered the execution phase?

Key Catalysts to Watch

  • FSD milestone: Morgan Stanley expects total FSD miles to soon exceed 10 billion miles, a key data flywheel moment

  • Robotaxi timeline: The commercialization timeline remains the biggest valuation debate

  • AI5 chip: A newly emerging variable

This week, Elon Musk announced that Tesla has completed tape-out of its AI5 chip, a key milestone before mass production.

More importantly, Tesla’s “chip strategy” is expanding beyond internal automotive use:
It is working with SpaceX on the Terafab mega-chip project, targeting annual production equivalent to 1 terawatt of compute power.

👉 If Terafab becomes reality, Tesla’s role in AI will fundamentally shift —
from a consumer of compute to a producer of compute.

In a world where $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ supply remains constrained, the upside narrative here could be enormous.

Tesla plans $20 billion in capex this year, nearly 2.4x last year’s $8.5 billion — a major cost that the market will have to digest.

Discussion: How Do You Read This Earnings Season?

  • Do you think Tesla will beat expectations this time?

  • Among the Magnificent Seven, which company are you most bullish on?

  • Can the S&P 500 really achieve — and beat — 19% EPS growth this quarter?

  • Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

TSLA Cybercab Mass Production Launches: Can It Justify Premium?
Tesla fell 3.56% on Thursday, continuing its post earnings drop. Cybercab trial production officially commenced, while analyst Gary Black warned that tightening autonomous driving regulations could compress valuations — the 'Self-Driving Roll Back' narrative is eroding the growth premium. Shares broke below the key $380 level, shifting near-term support to $370. Can Cybercab convert to scaled delivery within the production window, and when will the FSD regulatory environment stabilize — two critical variables for rebuilding the current valuation floor?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • koolgal
    04-20
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟 I believe that $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is unlikely to deliver a clean "beat" this quarter.  Consensus expects Q1 2026 revenues around USD 21.4 billion and EPS around USD 0.16 but early delivery data already fell short of Wall Street's expectations.

    Tesla has rebounded above USD 400 yet analysts remain split.  The deciding factor will be whether Tesla can show credible improvement in FSD and Optimus, not just car sales.

    A exciting development is Tesla's AI Chip story - next gen AI5.  Elon Musk said that the next milestone would be the design and sending it to the foundries for fabrication.

    AI5 is optimised for Robotaxi and Optimus inference, while the broader Terafab project with Intel and SpaceX aims to build a vertically integrated AI Chip complex for Robotics and data centers.

    Tesla is no longer just a car company.  It has shifted to AI compute & Robotics platform.  For that reason Tesla is a great stock to buy & hold long term.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

  • Shyon
    04-20
    Shyon
    I think this is one of the rare earnings seasons where bullish expectations are justified. AI is driving real earnings, and with analysts already modeling strong growth, the usual “lowball then beat” setup isn’t there. A 19% EPS growth target for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is high, but still achievable if the megacaps deliver.

    For $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , the numbers matter less than the narrative. Margins and deliveries are known — the focus is whether it can prove its shift toward AI and autonomy. The AI5 chip and Terafab angle are key; if Tesla is seen as a future compute player, the valuation could change. A beat helps, but reducing long-term uncertainty matters more.

    I’m still most bullish on AI infrastructure names where demand is clear. Tesla, though, is the key wildcard — its upside isn’t fully priced in. If this call shows real progress, it could rerate quickly; if not, even good results may fall short.

    @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub

  • MHh
    04-20
    MHh
    I am never optimistic about Tesla beating expectations. I think it remains to be seen if the ‘chip strategy’ pivot will really pay off. Where the cars are concerned, competition is too stiff. The rest are making better, cheaper cars with longer lasting batteries.


    Among the magnificent seven, I remain the most bullish on Apple. The iPhones remain popular and demand remains hot in its biggest market ie the Chinese market. The Chinese consumers are willing to pay for the phone. Also, I expect it’s venture into better wearables to pay off.


    I think a 19% EPS growth for the S&P might be a little hard to pull off. This is insanely bullish. This quarter is affected by the war, concerns of inflation as well as a consequently hawkish Fed which has not promised a rate cut. I expect consumers to be more prudent with their money. However, institutions might still be ‘forced’ to spend for their AI investments and growth is expected there.
  • Success88
    04-26 19:30
    Success88
    In fact I looking at $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ since the share have drop quite significantly recently. I also saw quite a few video that Xiaomi car can drive out by itself just by calling them. I feel that Tesla technology is losing out.
  • BTS
    04-23
    BTS
    The strategic pivot of Tesla Motors (TSLA) toward semiconductor design and artificial intelligence (AI) justifies its premium valuation, with the success of proprietary chips and autonomous software crucial for maintaining investor trust and future profitability

    While delivery volumes are recovering, missing consensus estimates underscores the need for tangible progress in energy and robotics, which must now provide a financial cushion to avoid downward revaluation of the stock

    NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) remains the primary driver of the Magnificent Seven, with its hardware dominance boosting index margins, while Alphabet (GOOG) emerges as a resilient bullish pick, leveraging its cloud backlog and disciplined AI integration to offset hardware cycle risks。。。

    Achieving 19% EPS growth for the S&P 500 (.SPX) is challenging amid mixed sector performances, but historical data suggests the broader index could still reach this target if the tech sector maintains its current margin trajectory

  • Bunifa Latif
    04-21
    Bunifa Latif
    I am never optimistic about Tesla beating expectations. I think it remains to be seen if the ‘chip strategy’ pivot will really pay off. Where the cars are concerned, competition is too stiff. The rest are making better, cheaper cars with longer lasting batteries.






    Among the magnificent seven, I remain the most bullish on Apple. The iPhones remain popular and demand remains hot in its biggest market ie the Chinese market. The Chinese consumers are willing to pay for the phone. Also, I expect it’s venture into better wearables to pay off.






    I think a 19% EPS growth for the S&P might be a little hard to pull off. This is insanely bullish. This quarter is affected by the war, concerns of inflation as well as a consequently hawkish Fed which has not promised a rate cut. I expect consumers to be more prudent with their money. However, institutions might still be ‘forced’ to spend for their AI investments and growth is expected there. DYODD
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