Gold: The Short-Term Structure
On September 28, with gold trading around $4,228.615, down approximately 0.06%, my short-term view was bearish. Central-bank gold purchases and concerns about U.S. government debt remained longer-term sources of support, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields were exerting more immediate pressure on gold.$微型10年美債收益率主連 2609(10Ymain)$ $微型30年美債收益率主連 2610(30Ymain)$ $30年美債主連 2612(ZBmain)$ $10年美債主連 2612(ZNmain)$
On the 30-minute chart, gold formed a swing high near 4,318, then made a series of lower highs before breaking sharply below 4,260. I viewed this as a deterioration in the short-term structure: the 4,240–4,250 area had flipped from support to resistance, and price was trading below the trend indicator’s midpoint at 4,271.205. The indicator’s upper band stood at 4,315.795, while its lower band was still forming.
Chart sourced from TradingView. Thanks to the original author for making it available; it can be removed upon request.
Gold: Downside Targets and Invalidation
The path I had mapped out was to watch for a rebound toward 4,232–4,238 after a break below 4,240, with particular attention to the 4,235 area. If price returned to 4,235–4,245 and showed renewed weakness on the one- or five-minute chart, I would focus on 4,205 and 4,170. If a 30-minute candle instead closed decisively below 4,220, I would watch for a more direct move toward those levels.
Further down, 4,200–4,210 could see profit-taking and a modest bounce, while 4,165–4,175 represented a deeper demand zone and pool of sell-side liquidity. If buying picked up noticeably and a 30-minute candle closed clearly above 4,255, I would set aside the bearish view and reassess the structure.
The original downside target was subsequently reached, and the original trade record showed a gain of 616 points. Around the same time, oil rose approximately 3% in a single day, fueling concerns about inflation and the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes; gold fell sharply during the Asian and London trading sessions.
$黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$
Gold: Watching for a Swing-Long Setup at Lower Levels
Around 4,164–4,165, my focus shifts to a potential swing-long opportunity. This area is close to a daily breaker and the 50% level of a bullish daily fair value gap (FVG). It also falls within the 0.618–0.715 retracement zone of the 3,943–4,696 move. I would watch for an opportunity to establish a small long position, using a level below the bullish daily order block (OB) at 3,994 as a defensive reference, with a longer-term target near 5,000.
That said, reaching a demand zone does not confirm a reversal. I would first watch how price behaves over the three trading days from September 29 through October 1, then consider entering from a bullish price delivery array (PDA) once order flow turns bullish.
Bitcoin: 85,000 Is the Dividing Line
For Bitcoin, I think wave 5 of the initial advance may be developing into an ending diagonal, leaving room for continued back-and-forth trading in the short term. Within the smaller-scale ABC structure, the decline in wave C may already be complete, but price has yet to confirm that.
If Bitcoin breaks above 85,000 quickly on September 29, I would be inclined to treat the low near 82,500 on the evening of September 28 as the bottom of the 5-2 wave pullback. If it cannot break through, wave C may extend further. In that case, I would keep the earlier analysis’s plan to add to a long position near 81,000 in view, rather than assume the correction is already over.
$CME比特幣主連 2610(BTCmain)$ $比特幣ETF-Bitwise(BITB)$ $比特幣(BTC.USD.CC)$ $比特幣ETF-iShares(IBIT)$ $比特幣期貨ETF-Global X(BTRN)$
Chart sourced from TradingView. Thanks to the original author for making it available; it can be removed upon request.
These are observations about market structure and conditional scenarios, not investment advice.
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