This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to

I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. $标普500(.SPX)$

The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie

The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe

After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching. The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.

Hello everyone. It is time once again for the Macro Strategy Weekly Report. On a regular basis, we select contributors from the community with relevant professional qualifications to share a collection of market-strategy perspectives, and we track the subsequent performance of those strategy views each week. Before starting this report, let us review the outcomes of the forecasts in our previous article. On July 21 this year, our Strategy Weekly Report published an analytical report titled: 《Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound》 It received a large number of likes and shares at the time. As indicated by its title, the report forecast a rebound in gold and a modera

Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present.   Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin

Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current

The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r

The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve

Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in

Last week U.S. equities posted a weekly decline: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.54% for the week, but sector performance diverged sharply. Energy rose 4.72%, leading the entire market; Real Estate, Consumer and Financials also gained; Technology plunged more than 5%, becoming the main drag on the index. Capital is rotating out of high-valuation sectors into Energy, Real Estate and defensive sectors in search of internal rebalancing — and the sectors that had been leading are starting to loosen. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$

After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor

Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act

Over the weekend, renewed exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon reignited tensions in the US-Iran negotiations. Iran announced that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to zero, effectively placing the strait under a de facto blockade and setting market nerves on edge once again. Absent any news of a negotiated settlement, crude oil is poised for a substantial rebound next week, though the outlook for other commodities and equity indices remains grim. With the US midterm elections approaching, a "fight-and-talk" dynamic will define future market action. The US is eager to restore navigation to lower oil prices and fulfill campaign promises, while Iran aims to leverage the strait's reopening to extract maximum economic concessions. Consequently, negotiations wi