This week is undoubtedly an important week in March. News about the Fed's interest rate hike path comes almost every day.
First, Powell attended the hearing of the US Senate on Tuesday, then Powell appeared in the House of Representatives on Wednesday, and finally, the most important non-agricultural data. Last Friday night, the whole market rose sharply, indicating that the market expects more doves next week, so it is possible to continue to buy expectations and sell reality next week. Of course, this reality will not appear until Friday night, so the bullish atmosphere is likely to last for a whole week.
1. How long does the rebound of US stock index last?
At present, the market expects the non-agricultural data to cool down, which will not exceed expectations as last month, which is a respite for US stocks. However, after all, the inflation data is still the same, so we don't see that US stocks will rise again, and the probability of market rebound is high.
The 4200 points of S&P will be the watershed of long and short stock market this year. We still expect not to be too high. In the short term, the rebound range of S&P is also estimated to be between 4100 and 4200. After all, there is little suspense in raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March.
Technically, bearish friends can lay out long-term short positions in the US stock index in a small amount near the 20th line.
Of course, the stop loss should be enlarged to 4200, because there are many news, so be careful to guard against the impact of short-term pulse fluctuations on positions. If you are worried that you can't stand it, don't worry about it first.In short, bullish can only be bullish until before and after Friday's non-agricultural news, and next week's market will be discussed next week.
Second, crude oil breaks through the edge
Crude oil has returned to the vicinity of the 20-week moving average again. With the passage of time, the probability of breakthrough will continue to increase. Next week is the opportunity to verify it again. Once it breaks through, it will go to 90, and it is likely that the upward trend in the first half of the year will be established. Therefore, everyone should keep a close eye on the fluctuation of oil prices and take a small position appropriately.
On the news front, the UAE's "withdrawal" from OPEC must be a rumor in a short time, but it may not be groundless in a long time. Which one wants to weaken OPEC's right to speak on oil prices most? The answer is obvious, but whether it has enough influence to achieve this goal today needs to observe geopolitical changes. In a word, this news is not to be feared at present, but it cannot be considered impossible in the future.
Third, continue to be bullish on gold
Last two weeks, let everyone observe the bottom of gold and do a good job of bargain-hunting. I wonder if there is any follow-up. If there is no follow-up, then we can only look at the bullish opportunities of gold price in the short term. Above 1900 is a high-risk area of gold price. Don't be too greedy, accept it as soon as possible, and be afraid that other non-agricultural data and news will come out. It is important to fall into the bag for safety. Remember.
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